CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[bg1]

What an amazing loop!!

Seconded. Was it not last year today we had the Cat 4 triplets?

[Extratropical94]

What an amazing loop!!

Seconded. Was it not last year today we had the Cat 4 triplets?

I think we had the major triplets on Aug 29th and then Kilo became a category 4 on the 30th (UTC timezone of course).

[Ntxw]

What an amazing loop!!

Seconded. Was it not last year today we had the Cat 4 triplets?

Yep on this date last year Kilo, Ignacio, and Jimena were turning in these very waters. If only 92C was a hurricane right now

[ScottNAtlanta]

A Hurricane watch has been issued for Hawaii County...latest adv has wind gusts at 120kts, sustained at 100kts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016

...MADELINE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 145.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A Hurricane Watch is typically issued 48
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm
force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Madeline. Watches may be required for additional
Hawaiian Islands later today or tonight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

FYI thats the old discussion...they havent issued the 11am last I checked (HST)

[Kingarabian]

TPA45 PHFO 292104
TCDCP5

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016

Madeline has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours, with
infrared satellite images depicting a cloud-filled eye encircled by
a solid ring of deep convection. Except for some modest restriction
in the southern semicircle, upper-level outflow is otherwise
unimpeded and the cyclone has taken on an increasingly symmetric
appearance. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW
also indicate a significant increase in intensity, with latest
estimates indicating 5.5/103 kt. ADT from UW-CIMSS indicates an
intensity near 110 kt, while SATCON is near 90 kt. Based on a blend
of this data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been
increased to 100 kt, making Madeline a major (category 3) hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane hunters from
the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are slated to begin flying
investigative flights into Madeline tomorrow morning, which will
give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual intensity and
size.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 300/09 kt, with
Madeline currently on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge. A deep-layer trough lies far north of Madeline, with the
system generally tracking toward a weakness in the ridge caused by
this trough. This is expected to be the case for the next 24 hours
or so, after which time the trough is forecast to fill, and mid-
level heights will build to the north and northwest of the cyclone.
Guidance remain consistent in tracking Madeline toward the west-
northwest in the short term, with a turn toward the west anticipated
to begin on Tuesday as heights build. The updated track forecast is
close to the previous and the GFEX through 72 hours, and thereafter
lies to the right of the previous, close to the latest multi-model
consensus TVCN.

While Madeline is currently near a col in the upper level flow, a
high-level trough is forecast to dig southward toward Madeline
Tuesday and Tuesday night, introducing increasing southwesterly
shear. This, combined with some drying in the mid-levels, is
expected to lead to a gradual weakening trend after tonight. In the
mean time, relatively light shear and warm SSTs may allow Madeline
to intensify a little more, as indicated by SHIPS guidance. The
updated intensity forecast follows the trends presented by the
previous, after accounting for the higher initial intensity.

The latest track and intensity forecast necessitates a Hurricane
Watch for Hawaii County. Depending on the evolution of the
forecast, a watch may be required for additional Hawaiian Islands
later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 18.6N 145.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 19.0N 146.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 148.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 18.7N 152.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 18.0N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 18.4N 160.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 165.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[Kingarabian]

WTPA35 PHFO 292045
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016

...MADELINE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 145.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A Hurricane Watch is typically issued 48
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm
force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Madeline. Watches may be required for additional
Hawaiian Islands later today or tonight.

[Kingarabian]

Still moving at 300 degrees/10kts. Getting too close for comfort.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Still moving at 300 degrees/10kts. Getting too close for comfort.

I dont remember a hurricane being this strong approaching the islands from this direction...this seems like a very rare thing

[Alyono]

Still moving at 300 degrees/10kts. Getting too close for comfort.

I dont remember a hurricane being this strong approaching the islands from this direction...this seems like a very rare thing

was expected this year. Lester may be even worse a mere 48 hours after this one

[ScottNAtlanta]

Has there been anything like this in the recorded past? I know strong hurricanes have hit the islands coming up from the south , but not from the EPAC that I know of (or can find record of)

[Ntxw]

Has there been anything like this in the recorded past? I know strong hurricanes have hit the islands coming up from the south , but not from the EPAC that I know of (or can find record of)

There's been several close calls the past couple of years. Iselle 2014 and even Darby earlier this season for example. Both were greatly weakened as they approached. It's been a shooting gallery in the eastern Pacific. Hawaii has been lucky.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The islands have been lucky with the last several close calls with either the storm missing or weakening before arrival. I hope people know to take this very seriously...especially those in the higher elevations

[Kingarabian]

Has there been anything like this in the recorded past? I know strong hurricanes have hit the islands coming up from the south , but not from the EPAC that I know of (or can find record of)

Nothing at all unfortunately. Hawaii has been under the gun for the past 3 seasons unfortunately.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Has there been anything like this in the recorded past? I know strong hurricanes have hit the islands coming up from the south , but not from the EPAC that I know of (or can find record of)

There's been several close calls the past couple of years. Iselle 2014 and even Darby earlier this season for example. Both were greatly weakened as they approached. It's been a shooting gallery in the eastern Pacific. Hawaii has been lucky.

Neither of those were a major hurricane this close in that I recall. Darby was a major, but was much further out when it started to weaken.

[Kingarabian]

The islands have been lucky with the last several close calls with either the storm missing or weakening before arrival. I hope people know to take this very seriously...especially those in the higher elevations

Hurricanes and storms barely missing Hawaii have caused people to become complacent. One major hurricane hitting any of the island's may be catastrophic. Hawaii has one of the worst building codes in the nation.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The islands have been lucky with the last several close calls with either the storm missing or weakening before arrival. I hope people know to take this very seriously...especially those in the higher elevations

Hurricanes and storms barely missing Hawaii have caused people to become complacent. One major hurricane hitting any of the island's may be catastrophic. Hawaii has one of the worst building codes in the nation.

I was pretty amazed at the damage caused by the weakening TSs that hit...building codes do matter in these situations. You pay for it at some point. Cheap construction isnt so cheap when you have to build it twice.

[1900hurricane]

Has there been anything like this in the recorded past? I know strong hurricanes have hit the islands coming up from the south , but not from the EPAC that I know of (or can find record of)

There's been several close calls the past couple of years. Iselle 2014 and even Darby earlier this season for example. Both were greatly weakened as they approached. It's been a shooting gallery in the eastern Pacific. Hawaii has been lucky.

Neither of those were a major hurricane this close in that I recall. Darby was a major, but was much further out when it started to weaken.

Ignacio last year was at peak intensity as a category 4 in almost the same location where Madeline is now. That one ended up passing Hawaii to the north.

[Blown Away]

Did the track shift a bit farther S away from Big Island?