ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

^Thks. Shear & its tendency clearly look favorable. The mid level dry air and SAL maps don't appear unfavorable for 93L. Let's see what the next 24 hours bring.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS running does show the upper-low filling in and being replaced by an upper-high so upper-level winds do look favorable for development as the system heads towards the Bahamas. The question is whether this is enough of a low-level vorticity and convection for something to spin up.

[northjaxpro]

I am willing to see if 93L may be able to get better organized by Monday when it approaches the Bahamas. The trough axis may fill by then and allow ridging to build into the region. We will see

[ConvergenceZone]

My thinking is that if 1 out of the 3 invests aren't able to develop during peak season, then there's no reason to think we will get any development in October when shear is typically even higher due to the increase in frontal activity and ULLs.

[AxaltaRacing24]

My thinking is that if 1 out of the 3 invests aren't able to develop during peak season, then there's no reason to think we will get any development in October when shear is typically even higher due to the increase in frontal activity and ULLs.

Not every invest is going to automatically form just because it is peak season. This is a near normal season and even getting 1 or 2 named storms out of these is average.

[ConvergenceZone]

My thinking is that if 1 out of the 3 invests aren't able to develop during peak season, then there's no reason to think we will get any development in October when shear is typically even higher due to the increase in frontal activity and ULLs.

Not every invest is going to automatically form just because it is peak season. This is a near normal season and even getting 1 or 2 named storms out of these is average.

True, but if there's THIS much shear in the Atlantic and Gulf during peak season, I can't even imagine how much there will be in October, as all the Fronts begin CB to sweep across the US and into the Atlantic. So the conditions you are seeing for tropical development right now are probably as good as they are going to get

[LarryWx]

My thinking is that if 1 out of the 3 invests aren't able to develop during peak season, then there's no reason to think we will get any development in October when shear is typically even higher due to the increase in frontal activity and ULLs.

Not every invest is going to automatically form just because it is peak season. This is a near normal season and even getting 1 or 2 named storms out of these is average.

True, but if there's THIS much shear in the Atlantic and Gulf during peak season, I can't even imagine how much there will be in October, as all the Fronts begin CB to sweep across the US and into the Atlantic. So the conditions you are seeing for tropical development right now are probably as good as they are going to get

Keep in mind that many of the Oct+ geneses are way down in the SW Caribbean, which is far enough south to often be shielded from strong shear.

[gatorcane]

Seems like convection is building closer to the low-level vort and shear does not seem to be as bad as it was yesterday. Also is that some inflow into the new convection I am seeing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[AutoPenalti]

Seems like convection is building closer to the low-level vort and shear does not seem to be as bad as it was yesterday. Also is that some inflow into the new convection I am seeing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Looks like it, unless that convection is shear induced.

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola remains disorganized. There are no signs of a
surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive
for significant development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[LarryWx]

Seems like convection is building closer to the low-level vort and shear does not seem to be as bad as it was yesterday. Also is that some inflow into the new convection I am seeing?

I'm not sure but with the upper low losing its influence & being replaced by an upper high now, that could be the case.

[tpr1967]

Seems like convection is building closer to the low-level vort and shear does not seem to be as bad as it was yesterday. Also is that some inflow into the new convection I am seeing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yes it is I think. I have been seeing that the last few hours. Something to keep and eye on.

[tpr1967]

Another thing I have noticed is how Convection has been building during the day, Unlike last several days when this primarily occurred at night.

[AutoPenalti]

Whatever the case may be, there's a 40% chance that it will run out of time before intensification with proximity to land.

[floridasun78]

it look if low it west of all storm getting shear bad

[gatorcane]

it look if low it west of all storm getting shear bad

That is the weakening upper low you are seeing. Any LLC might be right under the convection blowup. Looks like some easterly shear now as the system is in the NE side of the upper low

[floridasun78]

it look if low it west of all storm getting shear bad

That is the weakening upper low you are seeing. Any LLC might be right under the convection blowup. Looks like some easterly shear now as the system is in the NE side of the upper low

ok that what i think after i post that you all talking about ull west of 93l

[LarryWx]

Gator/FL et al,
I see an impressive low level curved thunderstorm outflow boundary on vis 20-21N, 67-8W, moving SE. Other than that suggesting strong tstorms to its NW, any idea about what that implies for 93L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif

[rickybobby]

Where's the guy who has arthritis when a storm is going to hit central Florida? Tony from wesh 2 said we shouldn't worry about this because it will not form.

[LarryWx]

Gator/FL et al,
I see an impressive low level curved thunderstorm outflow boundary on vis 20-21N, 67-8W, moving SE. Other than that suggesting strong tstorms to its NW, any idea about what that implies for 93L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif

I did some research and learned that this is a sign of dry air. If so, maybe that's holding back development for now. Any opinions?