ATL: HERMINE - Models

[beoumont]

FNMOC 180 hr. GO NAVY!! "Loose lips, sink ships."

[SeGaBob]

I'm guessing Charleston at 240 this run.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro all of the sudden taking this poleward.

Whaaaaaaa??

[SeGaBob]

Nope out to sea at 240...

[USTropics]

last image, heading NE, another run of development in the Bahamas for the ECMWF:

[Hammy]

The consistency here though is we still have development now, and in about 5-7 day period.

[paintplaye]

ECMWF has an ULL rotating from the northeast and helps to break down ridging over the east coast. Also increases shear for 99L and is part of the reason why a more northerly track ensues. Still a lot of run by run variability just in the synoptic setup.

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles:

[chaser1]

Nope, at least from looking at the 500mb flow from this eve.'s GFS run, at 180hrs, if Hermine is where the EURO places her at that time then she should well be westward bound. One other factor to keep in mind. The ONLY apparent factor causing Hermine to jog north and then northeast is whatever influence that Gaston might play on breaking down the ridge to Hermine's north. Not only is that suspect here, but even moreso if one does not buy into 90L moving as fast as the models are projecting nor buy into her quick gain in latitude between 48 - 72 hours. A slower track and especially a more westward (or WNW) track would have a significant impact on the dynamics that the EURO is seeing affecting 99L (potentially Hermine).

[AutoPenalti]

Shift back west next run. Calling it.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Nope, at least from looking at the 500mb flow from this eve.'s GFS run, at 180hrs, if Hermine is where the EURO places her at that time then she should well be westward bound. One other factor to keep in mind. The ONLY apparent factor causing Hermine to jog north and then northeast is whatever influence that Gaston might play on breaking down the ridge to Hermine's north. Not only is that suspect here, but even moreso if one does not buy into 90L moving as fast as the models are projecting nor buy into her quick gain in latitude between 48 - 72 hours. A slower track and especially a more westward (or WNW) track would have a significant impact on the dynamics that the EURO is seeing affecting 99L (potentially Hermine).

this is exactly my thoughts as well. they arent giving 99 enough credit and making all of (her?) forecast assumptions based around 90L as though 90 is controlling 99. looking at the thermal loop posted a couple hours ago you can see the convection really increasing and more circular motion to see a potential eye center, which if it turns out to be is slightly lower in latitude. the old saying your first instinct on a test is usually the right one, the initial runs of showing this a more westward tracking storm and possible SE FL hit seems more plausible than a sudden curvature out to sea.

[USTropics]

00z MMDC:

[chaser1]

Shift back west next run. Calling it.

Agreed. But, if not on the next run than on the one or two that follow. If 90L is a factor in breaking down the S.E. Conus ridge that it may take a day or two to see if in fact 90L's track and speed had been consistant with the models present forecast. Slower motion, a less poleward motion, or even delay in its deepening would seem to be one factor that the EURO might begin to see as having less impact on W. Atlantic steering.

[paintplaye]

Nope, at least from looking at the 500mb flow from this eve.'s GFS run, at 180hrs, if Hermine is where the EURO places her at that time then she should well be westward bound. One other factor to keep in mind. The ONLY apparent factor causing Hermine to jog north and then northeast is whatever influence that Gaston might play on breaking down the ridge to Hermine's north. Not only is that suspect here, but even moreso if one does not buy into 90L moving as fast as the models are projecting nor buy into her quick gain in latitude between 48 - 72 hours. A slower track and especially a more westward (or WNW) track would have a significant impact on the dynamics that the EURO is seeing affecting 99L (potentially Hermine).

Ridging does break down rather quickly. The ECMWF solution is rather weird in rotating a ULL southwestward through the western part of the Atlantic. That helps to break down the ridge even faster. If it wasn't for that feature 99L would have easily been shoved westward.

[chaser1]

00z MMDC:

Not to split hairs but I'm not sure why the projected SST is not at least 30C in 5 days where 99L is projected to be. Also, not sure the cause of lowering humidy at that time either. Would have thought the opposite would be occuring?

[USTropics]

06z GFS out to 180 hours, 99L looks to be heading due west:

[USTropics]

Strengthening with landfall in the Keys/SF:

[USTropics]

Strengthening and heading WNW into the GOM at 198 hours:

http://i.imgur.com/Leottr0.png

[N2FSU]

+192hr

[USTropics]

The remains of Fiona are still lingering on this GFS run: