ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

The upper low shows up very well on the simulated IR

See it now thanks was on a previous run for some reason lol. Well it would be typical of the Atlantic in recent years for a ULL to appear right next to a storm. Good news for anyone in its path.

[gatorcane]

GFS seems to be now be showing a somewhat stronger vort between 126 and 144 hours in the Eastern Bahamas.

[Stormcenter]

It really is hard to take any of these models seriously anymore. The inconsistencies are enough reason to ignore them all until we actually
have an true organized system. IMO

[p1nheadlarry]

The upper low shows up very well on the simulated IR

See it now thanks was on a previous run for some reason lol. Well it would be typical of the Atlantic in recent years for a ULL to appear right next to a storm. Good news for anyone in its path.

Yup. Not that an ULL stopped Andrew from happening when he was just a teency TS

[JaxGator]

Right now, it would be best to watch the current organizational trends and the path the models have 99L on. The ULL might be possible but I am for now disregarding the intensity it portrays for both. Plenty can change.

[Alyono]

UKMET stronger

[gatorcane]

Pretty complex setup on the 12Z GFS 150 hours in the Bahamas with two upper-level lows off to the north of 99l, powerful soon-to-be Gaston to the east and an upper-anticyclone trying to build over 99l. Fight between upper-level lows and the upper anticyclone.

I think this is one of those cases small differences as to where these features setup (or even develop at all...like the upper low being further away to influence 99L) can make big differences on how strong 99l could become.

Tough forecast for the models.

[Siker]

UKMET strongest yet, further southwest:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 23.3N 72.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2016 96 23.3N 72.7W 1008 23
0000UTC 27.08.2016 108 24.5N 73.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 27.08.2016 120 25.6N 74.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 28.08.2016 132 26.4N 75.9W 1002 36
1200UTC 28.08.2016 144 26.6N 78.3W 996 43

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS is set on the idea of slowing this thing way down when it gets to the Bahamas. I'm not sold on intensity at all right now when we can't get any run to run consistency. The only thing to take from all of this is there will be a disturbance in the Bahamas by this weekend. What it becomes or where it goes...only time will tell.

SFT

[NDG]

I guess the wild card player will be if a cut off ULL develops and rotates around of the heat ridge over the SE US ahead of 99L over the northern Bahamas which could make it difficult for 99L to develop.

[WeatherEmperor]

So wait. Gfs comes in weaker (after flopping back and forth)...but Ukmet comes in stronger?? omg
I officially give you all permission to bash me over the head with heavy mining equipment...

[stormlover2013]

just look at the ridge and see how strong it is, that is what we all need to look at..

[stormlover2013]

can we see a image on the ukmet

[Siker]

CMC with a Florida hit:

[tarheelprogrammer]

can we see a image on the ukmet

Go here:
http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[AutoPenalti]

This is fun.

[SouthFLTropics]

UKMET stronger

How was the UKMET's performance with Earl?

[Alyono]

Canadian has shifted massively west, though it too is slightly weaker

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC with a Florida hit:

I feel safer already!!!

[stormlover2013]

ukmet takes quick turn left lol