ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TimeZone]

Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.

Recon says otherwise. Shear isn't hitting Matthew too hard, and it's still strengthening.

Considering the center was just exposed merely an hour ago, I'm not sure how you can say that. It's fighting the shear, and still slowly strengthening, but it's certainly having it's struggles.

[LarryWx]

Good stuff Larry! Though, I'd be a bit more curious what the results would be based on a storm "existing" (rather than point of genesis) at or south of 15N and between 70-75W, given this to be a likely account of where Matthew will be in the near future. I have to assume the percentage of Conus landfall would be over 15%. If so, then I suppose the assumption would then already paint Matthew as an outlier storm given that most others seemingly recurved whereas Matthew is likely to at least reach 70 west at a pretty low latitude.

Chaser,
Here's a more accurate response to take into account the three storms which I inadvertently left off the original list of 22. So, I added these three to give me 25.

Thanks. Great question. Matthew appears to be an outlier vs most analog tracks. That's why I have the CONUS hit chance at 33% rather than 8%. Looking at these analogs (now up to 25 due to my finding three I inadvertently left off the list), the ones that were at or south of 15N between 70-75W (where Matthew progs take him) are as follows:

1) #4 of 1876 (added): S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2) #7 of 1892: S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3) #5 of 1895: R (just missed SE FL) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
4) #14 of 1932***: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
5) Hazel of 1954***: H on NC http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
6) Tomas of 2010***: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

***best three analogs as per progged track of Matthew as of now

So, one of these 6 hit the CONUS and one other just missed SE FL. So, 2 of the 6 (33%) were at least a threat to the CONUS. Also, note that the other one that barely missed SE FL, #9 of 1898, traveled only barely north of 15N between 70 and 75W:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

In addition, newly added #6 of 1879, which did hit the CONUS, also only barely traveled north of 15N between 70 and 75W:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

So, if #9 of 1898 and #6 of 1879 were included, that would make 4 of the best 8 analogs (50%) that were at least a threat to the CONUS.

Also, as I noted in another reply to you, I couldn't find any TC that formed 65-75W and at or south of 15W between 9/25 and 10/31.

[chaser1]

NOAA’s G-IV is ready to fly a synoptic surveillance mission around Tropical Storm Matthew takes off at 1:30 PM

Okay, so that clarifies that the 18Z cannot in any way ingest any new data to suggest a more comprehensive model run - not if the plane itself will not leave the ground until that time. Actually, i'm even wondering if there'll be sufficient time for the mission to conclude so that this new data would be ingested into the 0Z run this evening. Remember, that run occurs between 7:00-8:00pm (even if we we're not able to put eyes on it until after 11:00pm or so). I"m guessing that newly plotted data might be computed somewhat immediately into the system model runs but am thinking if I"m assuming correctly that the 0Z run might contain "some" newly ingested data but more so in tonight's (tomm.) 6Z run.

[Michele B]

It's almost off this loop but you can see a new convective burst and tops expanding to the SW in the last hour.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=yellow

non-CONUS loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-66&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Could be an early sign of CDO formation?

Is there a Lexicon somewhere with all these ABBREVIATIONS??

Don't ANYBODY tell me "CDO means Central Dense Overcast...." - I KNOW THAT ONE!!! But the use of it triggered me to mention that I don't know ALL of the abbreviations I see, so I'm wondering if they are all listed somewhere, so those of us who don't follow this all the time can keep up?

[galaxy401]

Shear has taken one hell of a toll on little Matthew. Yikes that is one hideous storm. I'm not surprised.

Recon says otherwise. Shear isn't hitting Matthew too hard, and it's still strengthening.

Considering the center was just exposed merely an hour ago, I'm not sure how you can say that. It's fighting the shear, and still slowly strengthening, but it's certainly having it's struggles.

Well the convection is nearly entirely covering the center again and the pressure is still dropping so I know exactly what I'm saying. It could still cause disorganization later I won't rule it out.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Hurricane

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[hipshot]

It's almost off this loop but you can see a new convective burst and tops expanding to the SW in the last hour.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=yellow

non-CONUS loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-66&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Could be an early sign of CDO formation?

Is there a Lexicon somewhere with all these ABBREVIATIONS??

Don't ANYBODY tell me "CDO means Central Dense Overcast...." - I KNOW THAT ONE!!! But the use of it triggered me to mention that I don't know ALL of the abbreviations I see, so I'm wondering if they are all listed somewhere, so those of us who don't follow this all the time can keep up?

There used to be because I relied on it many times but I don't know where it is now.

[Blown Away]

JB's Thoughts... Not sure what that 8-10 day reference is, Matt or some other feature...

[1900hurricane]

Could be an early sign of CDO formation?

Is there a Lexicon somewhere with all these ABBREVIATIONS??

Don't ANYBODY tell me "CDO means Central Dense Overcast...." - I KNOW THAT ONE!!! But the use of it triggered me to mention that I don't know ALL of the abbreviations I see, so I'm wondering if they are all listed somewhere, so those of us who don't follow this all the time can keep up?

There used to be because I relied on it many times but I don't know where it is now.

S2k Weather Acronyms. Direct link is provided, but it can also be accessed through "Talkin' Tropics" and then through "Tropical Reference Library."

[galaxy401]

It's been awhile that we saw a tropical storm strengthen into a hurricane in the usually hostile Eastern Caribbean.

[Nimbus]

The eastern side of the big ULL that has been dropping down through the Great lakes region will likely define the western periphery of the tropical ridging. The little ULL that has been providing shear from the south is filling.

You can see it quite clearly in the water vapor imagery.

So my biggest concern is Jamaica and Cuba at the moment, I think this is going to be a dangerous hurricane in the Caribbean.

[JaxGator]

MV's thoughts (now Hurricane Matthew):

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 14m14 minutes ago
"Great shot of Tropical Storm #Matthew. 85GHz microwave imagery shows a robust tropical storm "comma" structure in ice scattering."

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtidZtiWYAItCco.jpg

[Hammy]

This is quite strange to see strengthening, not only where it's at but also given the shear that's going on--is the pressure gradient playing some role in the strengthening?

[Michele B]

Is there a Lexicon somewhere with all these ABBREVIATIONS??

Don't ANYBODY tell me "CDO means Central Dense Overcast...." - I KNOW THAT ONE!!! But the use of it triggered me to mention that I don't know ALL of the abbreviations I see, so I'm wondering if they are all listed somewhere, so those of us who don't follow this all the time can keep up?

There used to be because I relied on it many times but I don't know where it is now.

S2k Weather Acronyms. Direct link is provided, but it can also be accessed through "Talkin' Tropics" and then through "Tropical Reference Library."

THANKS!!!!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow, it's been a while since we've seen a system go from an invest to a hurricane in a day.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Wow, it's been a while since we've seen a system go from an invest to a hurricane in a day.

Didn't Earl do that as well?

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

well that escalated quickly....

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS hour 6 map (for 2 PM EDT) has Matthew at 14.0N, 67.0W, vs. the NHC 2 PM actual position of 14.2N, 67.0W. So, the actual position is about 10 miles north of the 12Z GFS hour 6 prog (i.e. quite close).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow, it's been a while since we've seen a system go from an invest to a hurricane in a day.

Didn't Earl do that as well?

It took a few advisories longer, but yea within 36 hours.

[Patrick99]

Wow!? Throw in 1898, and i'd say these are some pretty good analogues systems. 1895 and 1954 seem to best fit present scenario as depicted by present models and/or forecast. Unfortunately, these analogies exclude what i'm guessing to be a number of storms that entered the Gulf and made landfall anywhere from Texas, east to Florida. Those storms would have likely represented those years where perhaps a storm "formed" near or south of 15N and from 70-75W with a good number of them likely tracking northwest. Genesis aside, these storms might equally serve as a reasonable analogous comparison as well.

1) I just looked and found, believe it or not, not one TC on record that formed during the interval Sep. 25- Oct. 31 south of 15N between 65 and 75W.

2) I just took another look at all of the years and I inadvertently left off three storms, meaning 25 analogs instead of 22. One of these 3 is actually the only Gulf coast hit of the 25, #6 of 1879:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The other two consist of a hit south of the CONUS and one that dissipated over open water:

- #4 of 1876 hit south of the CONUS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
- Judith of 1966 dissipated over open water: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Therefore, I'll be updating the two posts related to this for the purpose of accuracy. It doesn't change things too much from we've discussed.

Amazing and surprising, huh?? Especially considering how many October storms hit Florida over all of those years? Guess it just goes to show that for at least Florida to have gotten hit, it must have required a storm to form WEST of 75W and NORTH of 15N (essentially north of Honduras and east of Yucatan/Belize); call it "the deadly square" lol. For some reason I had thought that tracks might have come from points south and east of there.

Didn't King hit Miami from the SE, from pretty much the same point "they" expect Matthew to start its turn north? Also Inez.