ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

1) I just looked and found, believe it or not, not one TC on record that formed during the interval Sep. 25- Oct. 31 south of 15N between 65 and 75W.

2) I just took another look at all of the years and I inadvertently left off three storms, meaning 25 analogs instead of 22. One of these 3 is actually the only Gulf coast hit of the 25, #6 of 1879:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The other two consist of a hit south of the CONUS and one that dissipated over open water:

- #4 of 1876 hit south of the CONUS: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
- Judith of 1966 dissipated over open water: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Therefore, I'll be updating the two posts related to this for the purpose of accuracy. It doesn't change things too much from we've discussed.

Amazing and surprising, huh?? Especially considering how many October storms hit Florida over all of those years? Guess it just goes to show that for at least Florida to have gotten hit, it must have required a storm to form WEST of 75W and NORTH of 15N (essentially north of Honduras and east of Yucatan/Belize); call it "the deadly square" lol. For some reason I had thought that tracks might have come from points south and east of there.

Didn't King hit Miami from the SE, from pretty much the same point "they" expect Matthew to start its turn north? Also Inez.

Hmm, both similar but different. King actually formed off the NE corner of Honduras and swung up to the northeast and then less broadly back toward the NNW. But yes, it did approach S. Florida from the SSE. Inez on the other hand formed in the MDR at a higher latitude than Matthew but very steadily tracked more or less westward until it took a sharp north turn at about 80W (as models are calling for here closer to 74W). Inez only moved northward through Cuba and in the W. Bahamas took a sharp west turn again and continued through S. Florida and on its merry westward way. Those two storms seemingly had quite strong ridging just off the SE Conus. Whether that strong ridging was very evident at that time, I don't know. Probably was for Inez given its pretty solid westward motion over time.

[OuterBanker]

Hurricane Matthew.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking better and better. Six hours ago:



Latest:

[txwatcher91]

This is quite strange to see strengthening, not only where it's at but also given the shear that's going on--is the pressure gradient playing some role in the strengthening?

I'm guessing shear has let up enough for this to stack better? Also a lot of dry air seemed present yesterday and recon today indicates it's mixing out.

[tolakram]

faster scanning loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=23&mapcolor=yellow

visible loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-68&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[KWT]

It certainly does look better stacked now and the convection is nicely over the center compared to the shear presentation earlier.

[Kazmit]

The convection is definitely less displaced. 6 hours ago it was to the west of Matthew, and now it's right over the center. Once the shear lets up a bit more, I'll say this has potential to outdo what the NHC currently forecasts. A Cat 3 is likely, and a Cat 4 is possible too.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave shows a much better stacked system. The convective updrafts are essentially right on top of the center. Some dry air does still exist to the north and some more (but in much less magnitude) just south.

[Yellow Evan]

Interestingly enough, SHIPS initialized with more shear than it did last year.

[Kazmit]

GIF of Matthew organizing and becoming better stacked.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Hurricaneman]

This from here on out could intensify pretty quickly so interest in Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola need to take this very seriously and maybe the Bahamas too, its too early to speculate on Florida, The Carolinas and the Northeast US

[Michele B]

I sure hope this turns out to be a "fish storm" because it's going to be a monster.

[Kazmit]

I sure hope this turns out to be a "fish storm" because it's going to be a monster.

It can't be a fish storm. It already impacted the Lesser Antilles and is going to hit land somewhere in the Caribbean, regardless of where it goes. A fish storm is one that doesn't impact land (at least that's how I define it).

[xironman]

Not what you would expect approaching dmin...

[Hurricaneman]

I sure hope this turns out to be a "fish storm" because it's going to be a monster.

This hurricane has already killed people so in no way is this a fish and it could be potentially catastrophic for Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti that hope was dashed yesterday

[p1nheadlarry]

If the satellite presentation looks like this in the face of SW shear and some drier midlevel air, I'd love - and hate - to see what it looks like in a few days in a better environment.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/781575636548722688

[Hurricaneman]

I have to think if this gets stronger faster this might take a track similar to Irene 1999 but much stronger of course and that option I don't think is off the table yet so its going to be a long week of watching for wobbles and course changes

[caneseddy]

I have to think if this gets stronger faster this might take a track similar to Irene 1999 but much stronger of course and that option I don't think is off the table yet so its going to be a long week of watching for wobbles and course changes

Ughhh, I remember that one; not a pleasant storm.

[SunnyThoughts]

For those new to the board, In the past we have all listened to Jamaica radio as hurricanes were hitting the island. http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/ Here is the link to keep if that should happen. They are very mellow and never get excited. But they have people calling in to the station from all over the island during storms reporting damage etc. Just threw this out for those who would be interested should Matthew decide to pay them a visit.