ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

JB's thoughts...

[cycloneye]

More TS force winds.

046 044 001 00

[Kazmit]

Hmm... a TC or not a TC? We will know when they find out if a center is present.

[AutoPenalti]

JB's thoughts...

Meh, it's still a naked swirl. I don't think this is being named today.

[msbee]

still heaavy rain and wind on St Maarten

Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
Princess Juliana International Airport
latitude: 18-03N, longitude: 063-07W, elevation: 4 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 40 minutes ago, at 15:00 UTC
Wind 25 kt from the Southeast with gusts up to 41 kt
Temperature Pressure Visibility: 2000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft, Towering cumulus. heavy rain

[Dean4Storms]

You can see the little pinhole like LLC racing to the NW, but unless convection starts to refire over it it is going be nothing but a dead naked swirl.

[Aric Dunn]

low level cloud deck has started to thicken quite a bit .. could see a burst of convection near that "center"

[otowntiger]

Not much organization. Itoo doubt it gets upgraded today.

[GeneratorPower]

30 frame live loop

If it's like a lot of Atlantic sheared storms center will keep reforming closer tot he convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Beautiful LLC.

[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper called " FranceAntilles" today... extracted from the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France this morning 5AM.

Regards
Gustywind
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=

Guadeloupe in orange alert for heavy rain and thunderstorms

Wednesday, August 24, 2016 - 7:07

Widespread and heavy rainstorms affecting our island since that night. They are associated with a very active tropical wave that has a good chance of turning into a tropical depression.
These strong rainfall are expected until Thursday morning at least. sometimes thundershowers taking a quasi-stationary nature alternate with more or less long lull episodes.
Very significant accumulations may occur in a short time, both the relief and as around the Pointoise agglomeration.
Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour). There were also 40 mm in one hour at le Moule.
Next newsletter: Wednesday noon.


How to behave

- Inquire before starting a movement and be very careful
- Avoid mountain walks and hikes in relief
- If you live in a flood zone, put your property safe susceptible to damage and monitor the rising water
- If your home may be threatened by a landslide, leave there or be prepared to evacuate quickly
During thunderstorms: Avoid using telephones and electrical appliances. Do not shelter in a wooded area, close to poles or posts, or under an isolated tree.

[Dean4Storms]

I think NHC should wait to see if convection builds over that LLC before any upgrade and i bet they do.

[northjaxpro]

IMO, LLC very close to 18.5N/63.5W moving quickly to the NW... Gaining serious latitude IMO..l

Yes it is. The suspected LLC is moving northwest at a good pace currently.

[msbee]

It's election time in St Maarten but the winds took care of all the election signs that are plastered all over the island

[cycloneye]

[Div][URNT15 KNHC 241542
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 13 20160824
153300 1754N 06313W 9917 00189 0135 +206 +183 160041 044 043 001 03
153330 1755N 06314W 9918 00186 0136 +208 +182 164040 044 042 000 03
153400 1755N 06316W 9918 00186 0134 +209 +180 167039 041 041 000 00
153430 1755N 06318W 9917 00184 0133 +204 +175 165039 043 041 000 00
153500 1754N 06319W 9923 00180 0132 +197 +177 167041 044 042 000 03
153530 1753N 06320W 9913 00188 0130 +202 +176 164042 044 042 001 03
153600 1753N 06322W 9924 00177 0129 +205 +174 164043 044 043 001 00
153630 1752N 06323W 9919 00180 0127 +202 +171 163044 045 046 001 03
153700 1752N 06325W 9916 00178 0123 +199 +169 162045 046 045 003 00
153730 1752N 06327W 9918 00174 0121 +203 +163 162046 048 044 002 00
153800 1752N 06328W 9918 00172 0119 +200 +165 160044 046 046 000 00
153830 1752N 06330W 9928 00168 0120 +199 +171 161041 044 044 000 03
153900 1752N 06331W 9914 00177 0119 +191 +176 161044 046 046 000 03
153930 1753N 06333W 9917 00169 0117 +183 +179 160045 048 048 000 03
154000 1753N 06335W 9925 00166 0116 +203 +180 163044 046 045 000 00
154030 1753N 06337W 9917 00168 0112 +202 +178 163043 045 044 001 03
154100 1753N 06338W 9925 00157 0107 +210 +180 169045 047 045 000 03
154130 1753N 06340W 9915 00162 0103 +213 +177 169045 047 044 000 03
154200 1754N 06342W 9921 00156 0099 +216 +178 169044 045 044 001 03
154230 1754N 06343W 9919 00154 0096 +218 +180 169043 045 043 000 00
$$/Div]

[Steve]

I think NHC should wait to see if convection builds over that LLC before any upgrade and i bet they do.

What? How about they name it when it meets the criteria for classification ? C'mon man.

[GeneratorPower]

My guess is they wait till 5pm for advisories. Though it's getting kinda late in the game, and they will need to start issuing TS watches for Puerto Rico, etc, so they may be forced to initiate advisories at 2pm.

[tropicwatch]

There not heading back are they?

[Aric Dunn]

actually mid and upper winds are quite low. the shear is being caused by the low level flow

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241552
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20160824
154300 1754N 06345W 9916 00155 0095 +220 +184 170039 043 041 002 00
154330 1754N 06347W 9920 00150 0093 +224 +186 172038 039 041 000 00
154400 1754N 06348W 9916 00152 0089 +231 +187 179036 038 040 000 03
154430 1753N 06349W 9869 00193 0089 +228 +185 178034 035 039 000 03
154500 1753N 06351W 9847 00212 0091 +233 +180 175026 035 041 001 00
154530 1753N 06353W 9844 00216 0091 +240 +178 162020 020 027 000 03
154600 1753N 06354W 9860 00201 0089 +242 +178 160018 020 021 000 03
154630 1753N 06356W 9843 00217 0089 +240 +176 159017 018 020 000 00
154700 1753N 06358W 9848 00211 0088 +241 +175 160016 017 019 000 00
154730 1753N 06359W 9845 00213 0089 +242 +173 152016 017 021 000 03
154800 1753N 06401W 9848 00212 0089 +243 +173 153014 015 021 000 00
154830 1753N 06403W 9846 00213 0089 +243 +172 158014 014 021 000 00
154900 1753N 06404W 9847 00211 0088 +245 +170 158014 015 022 000 00
154930 1753N 06406W 9848 00211 0087 +245 +166 157016 016 022 000 03
155000 1753N 06408W 9848 00211 0087 +245 +163 154016 018 023 000 03
155030 1753N 06409W 9846 00211 0086 +249 +160 152015 016 022 000 00
155100 1753N 06411W 9846 00212 0086 +249 +161 153014 015 022 000 03
155130 1753N 06413W 9841 00214 0086 +242 +165 167014 016 024 000 00
155200 1753N 06414W 9846 00207 0084 +238 +166 177013 014 024 000 00
155230 1753N 06416W 9854 00205 0084 +244 +166 168010 013 025 000 03
$$

[northjaxpro]

Just getting caught up on the discussion and it looks like this is going to wait until last minute to let us all know. Northjaxpro, I'm starting to get a little more concerned again about St Augustine, FL. Thoughts??

Still a bit too soon to get overly concerned Tigerz3030. I wold say continue to monitor closely for the next 36-48 hours. By Thursday night at the earliest, we should know much clearer if Northeast Florida will get spared from any heaviest effects of potential Hermine.