ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

My guess is they wait till 5pm for advisories. Though it's getting kinda late in the game, and they will need to start issuing TS watches for Puerto Rico, etc, so they may be forced to initiate advisories at 2pm.

They may not think this is a tropical storm yet but we have had tropical storm force winds for 2 hours on St Maarten.
PR and the other islands need to be prepared.

[JILL239]

Hi all I'm new Florida resident since 2002 and have been a lurker for awhile. I have moved across the state to Naples from Fort Lauderdale. My question is what would Naples or SouthWest Florida see with all of these possible tracks I am not sure if I should prepare more than normal or not Thanks

[rickybobby]

My guess is they wait till 5pm for advisories. Though it's getting kinda late in the game, and they will need to start issuing TS watches for Puerto Rico, etc, so they may be forced to initiate advisories at 2pm.

They may not think this is a tropical storm yet but we have had tropical storm force winds for 2 hours on St Maarten.
PR and the other islands need to be prepared.

Wesh 2 just said it could get a name at 5pm.

[Aric Dunn]

finally finding west winds..

[cycloneye]

West winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 241602
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 15 20160824
155300 1753N 06418W 9847 00208 0084 +245 +167 155009 010 022 000 00
155330 1753N 06419W 9847 00210 0084 +245 +167 160010 010 022 000 03
155400 1753N 06421W 9846 00208 0083 +244 +167 168011 011 024 000 00
155430 1753N 06423W 9843 00208 0082 +245 +168 168009 011 027 000 00
155500 1753N 06424W 9848 00207 0083 +240 +170 189009 009 029 001 03
155530 1753N 06426W 9839 00214 0082 +245 +170 198009 011 024 000 03
155600 1753N 06427W 9848 00205 0082 +242 +169 202008 011 024 000 03
155630 1753N 06429W 9846 00207 0081 +245 +173 216007 007 020 000 00
155700 1753N 06430W 9848 00205 0082 +241 +175 232005 006 019 000 00
155730 1753N 06432W 9846 00208 0083 +244 +174 216006 006 020 000 00
155800 1753N 06434W 9846 00207 0083 +241 +173 237007 011 022 000 03
155830 1753N 06435W 9890 00169 0086 +233 +175 223009 011 024 000 00
155900 1753N 06437W 9918 00144 0083 +234 +180 217011 011 024 000 03
155930 1753N 06438W 9923 00138 0081 +240 +177 219009 011 024 000 00
160000 1752N 06440W 9857 00196 0080 +237 +173 227008 009 024 000 03
160030 1752N 06441W 9843 00210 0083 +235 +172 240006 009 023 000 00
160100 1752N 06443W 9847 00206 0082 +236 +172 231007 008 023 000 00
160130 1751N 06444W 9848 00211 0086 +238 +174 234005 007 021 001 00
160200 1751N 06446W 9844 00214 0089 +238 +173 245007 007 021 000 03
160230 1751N 06447W 9846 00217 0094 +235 +171 234004 006 021 000 00

[Airboy]

Looks like no closed rotation yet.

[Fego]

finally finding west winds..

Thought the mission ended...

[AutoPenalti]

Recon found west winds.

[Alyono]

finally finding west winds..

Though the mission ended...

No it didn't. It's just that the center is near St. Croix

[Aric Dunn]

finally finding west winds..

Though the mission ended...

No it didn't. It's just that the center is near St. Croix

been watching radar and right near st Croix there is ome convergence and rotation not sure what will happen as the center passes by to the north could be a second vort trying to spin up.

[La Sirena]

:?: Hi all I'm new Florida resident since 2002 and have been a lurker for awhile. I have moved across the state to Naples from Fort Lauderdale. My question is what would Naples or SouthWest Florida see with all of these possible tracks I am not sure if I should prepare more than normal or not Thanks

I think we should all be "over-prepared" regardless of location and outcome. The next 24 hours will give a much better idea for all of us in SFla and extreme south Fl--ie: the Keys. We prep starting in the spring...but, I'm still waiting to see if I need to take off with the dogs. Husband will evacuate separately for his job. The suspense is crazy, huh?

[AutoPenalti]

Though the mission ended...

No it didn't. It's just that the center is near St. Croix

been watching radar and right near st Croix there is ome convergence and rotation not sure what will happen as the center passes by to the north could be a second vort trying to spin up.

Could be another eddy trying to form.

[CrazyC83]

Broad LLC near 18.0N 64.7W. But it doesn't appear well defined for Hermine to be born. That said, if any hints of a strong LLC are found, advisories need to begin immediately with warnings for the islands.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is they wait till 5pm for advisories. Though it's getting kinda late in the game, and they will need to start issuing TS watches for Puerto Rico, etc, so they may be forced to initiate advisories at 2pm.

They may not think this is a tropical storm yet but we have had tropical storm force winds for 2 hours on St Maarten.
PR and the other islands need to be prepared.

Recon confirmed sustained winds of up to 45 kt. Really it is a tropical storm in impact, even if there is no closed LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

any reports on the british virgin islands. particularly the northern most one. It should have west winds right now.

[cycloneye]

More West to westsouthwest winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 241612
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 16 20160824
160300 1751N 06449W 9866 00201 0096 +231 +177 252004 005 025 000 00
160330 1751N 06451W 9893 00177 0097 +237 +182 239006 007 025 000 03
160400 1751N 06452W 9918 00156 0096 +246 +182 236008 009 027 001 00
160430 1751N 06454W 9918 00154 0095 +250 +175 240008 009 024 000 00
160500 1752N 06455W 9918 00156 0096 +247 +174 238007 008 022 000 00
160530 1752N 06457W 9915 00158 0097 +245 +176 244007 008 022 000 00
160600 1752N 06458W 9914 00158 0098 +238 +176 234012 015 025 000 00
160630 1752N 06500W 9916 00157 0097 +230 +177 231013 015 025 000 03
160700 1752N 06501W 9912 00161 0098 +233 +176 230014 015 026 000 03
160730 1752N 06503W 9917 00156 0096 +235 +176 238014 015 027 000 00
160800 1752N 06504W 9908 00165 0097 +229 +177 234011 013 026 000 03
160830 1752N 06506W 9908 00166 0099 +233 +177 231010 011 025 000 03
160900 1752N 06507W 9869 00199 0098 +240 +172 240010 011 025 000 00
160930 1752N 06509W 9834 00238 0105 +239 +171 250008 009 022 000 03
161000 1752N 06510W 9837 00236 0107 +240 +170 248007 008 021 000 00
161030 1751N 06512W 9835 00239 0107 +240 +171 243008 008 022 000 00
161100 1751N 06514W 9835 00239 0107 +240 +170 240008 009 022 000 00
161130 1751N 06515W 9836 00239 0107 +240 +168 232007 007 021 000 03
161200 1751N 06517W 9834 00240 0108 +237 +164 234007 008 020 000 00
161230 1751N 06518W 9836 00238 0108 +236 +164 233007 008 021 000 00
$$

[KWT]

finally finding west winds..

Yeah, I don't think there is debate to be had that there is at least one circulation present, I feel its more a question of whether or not the organisation justifies it right now...

With that being said, if this is 100 miles from the coast of the USA...it gets an upgrade...if its at 40W, no upgrade.

[WeatherEmperor]

...In other news, the 12z Gfs has an ever so slightly weaker vorticity moving North parallel to the FL east coast never making landfall so far until 104hrs. Very weak ridge. Model differences with Euro continue.

[xironman]

finally finding west winds..

Thought the mission ended...

They are still flying at 800 ft.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 12:12pm EDT: