ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

Question, Matthew is moving at 17 mph and is supposed to keep west or just south of west for the next 48 hours..that would put it 817 miles west of where it is now, can somebody with the tools show where this would be on the map please.

It would be 817 miles west of its current location if it kept moving at 17 mph, which isn't necessarily the case.

I understand that I just would like to see let's say 800 miles west of current on a map

[floridasun78]

For those new to the board, In the past we have all listened to Jamaica radio as hurricanes were hitting the island. http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/ Here is the link to keep if that should happen. They are very mellow and never get excited. But they have people calling in to the station from all over the island during storms reporting damage etc. Just threw this out for those who would be interested should Matthew decide to pay them a visit.

i heard that station doing hurr hit Jamaica in past

[abajan]

Looks like the 5pm track is just an update of the 11am track, they are east of the 18z consensus models. I guess they are going to wait and see if this westward shift sticks before tweaking the track closer to or over Jamaica.

The data provided by the NOAA G-IV aircraft will also factor into any track tweaks.

[northjaxpro]

Another thing to keep in mind folks is the size aand potential intensity of Matthew down the road.This storm is going to have far reaching effects. It would not have to make direct landfall if the center or eye of the cyclone gets say within 100 miles of the Florida East Coast. My concern after seeing EURO shifting west by the late today really grabbed.my attention. The longer it takes for the poleward turn to occur, and the more it traverses past 75 degrees Longitude, well the chances of the East U.S. Coast receiving significant impacts increases. Everyone needs to really watch closely for the days to come.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Even though i had no physical evidence to back up further claims besides its speed that has continued to be consistent that it might move fast enough to go to 80 or a tad farther before making the curve north. I guess a hunch. And if it were to end up in the southern GOM waters i cant even imagine what this would do intensity wise

[Ken711]

This is way ahead of the forecast points to this point, Mathew better slow down soon or it is going to be much further west before that ridge begins to erode.

What would the longer track implications be?

The turn would occur further west which begins to put FL into play on its northward track. Remember to this point models have been forecasting the ridge to its north without Recon Flight Obs being fed into them extending only to about where their current solutions turn it north. If Mathew continues past that general consensus of the turn it would mean the Ridge extends further Westward than the models calculated, a possibility!

Thanks!

[hurricaneCW]

My thoughts are if the storm can get west of 76W then parts of the east coast will be impacted, but how fast it gets there and moves north is what'll matter most. So far it's still moving at a brisk pace, didn't Levi say something about if it'll reach 68W by 8pm tonight? Well it definitely has.

[Blown Away]

Below is from the 11am Disco this morning, Matt already blown by 68.0W...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

Does it matter??? Assuming same forward speed, Matt would be @85 miles W of the forecast point...

[drezee]

My thoughts are if the storm can get west of 76W then parts of the east coast will be impacted, but how fast it gets there and moves north is what'll matter most. So far it's still moving at a brisk pace, didn't Levi say something about if it'll reach 68W by 8pm tonight? Well it definitely has.

Yes, it will be at 68.5W by 0z

[wxmann_91]

Anyone down to play?

[Michele B]

Below is from the 11am Disco this morning, Matt already blown by 68.0W...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

Does it matter??? Assuming same forward speed, Matt would be @85 miles W of the forecast point...

Just gonna jump in here and say I suspect the problem would be the poleward move would come later than projected, thereby, affecting CONUS, particularly FL.

OR, the storm would MISS the trof that is supposed to pick it up and move it poleward....

How'm-I doin' guys?

[WeatherEmperor]

Anyone down to play?

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LoL!!! This is awesome. Saved it to my phone!



Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

Anyone down to play?

Absolutely awesome!!! I'll take E of Bermuda!!!

[sma10]

This movement isn't really outrageously fast. Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z HWRF had Matthew past 68W by 8pm tonight so it's pretty much in line with those two models. To me, the key isn't necessarily how fast it moves, but rather how much southerly component it attains in the next 2 days. If the GFS/HWRF are correct it will dip a bit, but not too much. The UK/EURO/NAM idea of a slightly bigger, slower dip, will result in a longer trip back north to 20N, thus an overall slower solution.

[Steve]

Question, Matthew is moving at 17 mph and is supposed to keep west or just south of west for the next 48 hours..that would put it 817 miles west of where it is now, can somebody with the tools show where this would be on the map please.

It would be 817 miles west of its current location if it kept moving at 17 mph, which isn't necessarily the case.

I understand that I just would like to see let's say 800 miles west of current on a map

Google maps? There is a key and you can plot coordinates.

[sma10]

Anyone down to play?

LOL the Bingo board is great. Some of the all-time greatest tropes are in there. My favorite is the one about the G-IV mission. It always seems to me that the tracks after the digested information still look pretty much the same.

[sma10]

Question, Matthew is moving at 17 mph and is supposed to keep west or just south of west for the next 48 hours..that would put it 817 miles west of where it is now, can somebody with the tools show where this would be on the map please.

It would be 817 miles west of its current location if it kept moving at 17 mph, which isn't necessarily the case.

I understand that I just would like to see let's say 800 miles west of current on a map

Let's put it this way:
1. It won't happen that way
2. If it did, Matthew would be way past 80W by Saturday afternoon heading for a date with Nicaragua. (something like 14N, 81W)

[pcolaman]

Ok I didn't see gulf on there

[La Sirena]

Anyone down to play?

http://i.imgur.com/uQQqWKT.png

Absolutely awesome!!! I'll take E of Bermuda!!!

I'll take "models trending west" lol.

[drewschmaltz]

Anyone down to play?

I think I see an eye feature forming.