EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[AnnularCane]

I wonder why they're so late with the new advisory.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the islands of San Andres
and Providencia should monitor the progress of this system, since a
Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today or tonight.

[Div]TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming
better organized, with some banding features over the northern and
western portions of the circulation and small bursts of deep
convection near or over the estimated center. The current
intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
TAFB, pending an Air Force reconnaissance mission into the
cyclone this afternoon. There is moderate south-southeasterly shear
over the depression, and this should allow for only slow
strengthening over the next day or two. In 72 hours or so, some
relaxation of the shear is forecast with an upper-level anticyclone
developing over the tropical cyclone, and the system is predicted to
become a hurricane before landfall. The official intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one, and is close to the latest SHIPS
model guidance.

Satellite-derived center fixes indicate little motion since late
yesterday. The depression is currently located near a col in the
mid-level flow, so steering currents are very weak at this time.
Global model guidance shows a high developing to the north of the
system in a few days, so a generally westward track is forecast.
The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
tracks, with the former model being faster and farther south and
the latter being slower and farther north. The new official
forecast is very similar to the previous NHC forecast track.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether the system will survive
as a tropical cyclone while crossing Central America later in the
forecast period. The current thinking is that the interaction with
land and increasing shear will reduce the system to a remnant low by
the time it reaches the east Pacific.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 11.5N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 11.4N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 11.3N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 11.2N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 11.1N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 11.1N 82.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 11.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/1200Z 11.0N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[wxman57]

I wonder why they're so late with the new advisory.

The advisory was issued at 1435Z (9:35am EST). That's not late.

[cycloneye]

I wonder why they're so late with the new advisory.

Remember is now Eastern Standard Time with the time change.

[NotoSans]

I understand that recon is important when it comes to intensity estimation, but it should not be the only method used. A banding eye seems to be forming on the latest satellite frame, and Dvorak analysis supports at least a T2.5. The future Otto looks stronger than a tropical depression at the moment.

[1900hurricane]

Looking pretty impressive for a tropical depression at the moment.

[chaser1]

I understand that recon is important when it comes to intensity estimation, but it should not be the only method used. A banding eye seems to be forming on the latest satellite frame, and Dvorak analysis supports at least a T2.5. The future Otto looks stronger than a tropical depression at the moment.

I fully agree; furthermore given the small and tight center alignment I'm thinking that it wouldn't at all be unreasonable for this system to attain hurricane intensity within 24 hours. Though no models indicate it, I dont think its unreasonable for this storm to reach Cat. 2 or 3 status" at some point. There's some really dry and cool air to the systems north and I'd think that a larger envelope might entrain that air into the core, but given how this small system is well embedded within this trough axis it might shielded from much dry air entrainment.

[tolakram]

visible loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=12&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[cycloneye]

No mission today.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST MON 21 NOVEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z NOVEMBER 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 22/1800Z                    A. 22/2330Z
       B. NOAA3 0316A CYCLONE         B. AFXXX 0416A CYCLONE
       C. 22/1400Z                    C. 22/1830Z
       D. 11.2N 80.0W                 D. 11.2N 80.3W
       E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2000Z        E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0200Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
       A. 23/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0516A CYCLONE
       C. 23/0630Z
       D. 11.1N 81.0W
       E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1400Z
       D. SFC TO 15,000 FT


REMARKS: MISSION FOR 21/1130Z WAS CANCELED AND MISSION
FOR 21/2000Z ABORTED.

[cycloneye]

No recon for today.

MISSION FOR 21/1130Z WAS CANCELED AND MISSION
FOR 21/2000Z ABORTED.

[Florida1118]

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OTTO...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

This is a special advisory to report that Tropical Depression
Sixteen has strengthened. Visible satellite imagery shows that the
inner core has become better defined over the past few hours, and
ASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 45
kt. Additional intensification is expected, and Otto could become a
hurricane in 48 hours, or sooner.

No change has been made to the initial position or track forecast
from the previous advisory.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/800772976224309249

[TheStormExpert]

Welcome Otto! Behave for folks down in Central America.

[CrazyC83]

When was the last time a storm made landfall that far south in the Atlantic, if it makes landfall south of 12N (and certainly if south of 11N)?

[EquusStorm]

Looks like only one tropical cyclone on record has hit the Atlantic coast of Costa Rica (1887) unless I am missing something. Could be close.

[NDG]

Welcome Otto! I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a major hurricane, it has a whole 3 days over water to do so before moving inland, IMO.
Heavy rains over Panama, Costa Rica & Nicaragua could be devastating.

[Alyono]

When was the last time a storm made landfall that far south in the Atlantic, if it makes landfall south of 12N (and certainly if south of 11N)?

probably Bret or Joan

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/800798973451567104

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...OTTO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Since the strengthening episode this morning, visible and microwave
satellite imagery shows that Otto has not become much better
organized. Maintenance issues have caused the cancellation of
this afternoon's aerial reconnaissance mission. The initial
intensity estimate is 45 kt based on data from an earlier
scatterometer overpass, and above the latest Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB. The upper-level outflow is restricted over the
southeastern quadrant of the circulation, probably due to continued
south-southeasterly vertical shear. Strengthening to a hurricane
seems likely, however, and the official intensity forecast is close
to the model consensus. There remains a lot of uncertainty as to
whether Otto will survive crossing Central America. The official
forecast shows the system as a remnant low over the east Pacific, as
suggested by the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met. office model runs.

There has been little movement of the tropical cyclone today, while
Otto remains in an environment of weak steering currents. The
global models show a mid-level high pressure area gradually building
to the north of the storm over the next several days. This should
cause Otto to begin to move slowly westward within 48 hours, with a
continued westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed in the
latter part of the period. The official track forecast is close to
a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 11.3N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 11.1N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 11.1N 79.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 11.1N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 11.1N 81.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 11.2N 83.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 11.2N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z 11.2N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Great discussion by Mark Sudduth.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/800771619811627009