ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Based on visible loop, it's not developing any time soon, which is short for "it's a mess" #shear

No doubt, the big question is there going to be enough spin and energy left to take advantage of better conditions a day or two out.

[wxman57]

Conditions don't really get too favorable for another 2-3 days, but it could be a depression by tomorrow. Circulation is not well enough defined for upgrade today. On another note, the 12Z GFS is smoking crack...

[SouthFLTropics]

Conditions don't really get too favorable for another 2-3 days, but it could be a depression by tomorrow. Circulation is not well enough defined for upgrade today. On another note, the 12Z GFS is smoking crack...

I think the HWRF is partaking in some of the crack is well based on what I've seen from the 12z run.

[ronjon]

Based on visible loop, it's not developing any time soon, which is short for "it's a mess" #shear

No doubt, the big question is there going to be enough spin and energy left to take advantage of better conditions a day or two out.

Aw don't ya love model consistency? Must drive METS crazy! Watch and wait time now for a few more days...

[RL3AO]

Conditions don't really get too favorable for another 2-3 days, but it could be a depression by tomorrow. Circulation is not well enough defined for upgrade today. On another note, the 12Z GFS is smoking crack...

A little off topic for 99L, but what is it doing with Gaston? We're talking about a 400 mile shift in two runs. Seems to be missing the trough in N Atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

I have a feeling the NHC may use the verbiage, "IF it survives" in their next discussion.

[Aric Dunn]

It is just moving too fast and no convection to be able produce strong enough west winds right now. once it gets north of PR and mona passage the low level flow really slows down and it should have good shot of deepening.

[Javlin]

I'm feeling it did itself a favor getting rid of the MLC to the S sayonara .

[psyclone]

it looks an absolute mess. but there's no way the NHC will say "if it survives" because "it" hasn't yet existed. I'd go with 90% likelihood it develops...but not today

[xironman]

LOL, 48kt SFMR.

[Tireman4]

Conditions don't really get too favorable for another 2-3 days, but it could be a depression by tomorrow. Circulation is not well enough defined for upgrade today. On another note, the 12Z GFS is smoking crack...

I think the HWRF is partaking in some of the crack is well based on what I've seen from the 12z run.

Are you two saying that models are participating in illegal activities? Oh my gracious. I think ( and Wxman57 can correct me) we will not know anything substantive for 24-36 hours. Just my opinion


he posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[JaxGator]

Well, the same bit of shear that's hitting 99L, Gaston will also hit.

[cycloneye]

Peak 10-second Wind: 50 kt at 150°

[RL3AO]

Take a deep breath everyone. This is behaving very close to expected (especially with the Euro). Theres a healthy vort max that will move N of Puerto Rico. It's a little sheared right now, but in a day or two it may be in a healthy environment. Anyway, back to the model thread...Euro here soon.

[curtadams]

Looks to me like it was a heavily sheared but coupled system at dawn that just decoupled, with the LLC jumping north and the ULC disappearing.

[StormHunter72]

Looks to me like it was a heavily sheared but coupled system at dawn that just decoupled, with the LLC jumping north and the ULC disappearing.

Model shifted east so that makes sense.

[ConvergenceZone]

it looks an absolute mess. but there's no way the NHC will say "if it survives" because "it" hasn't yet existed. I'd go with 90% likelihood it develops...but not today

Sorry, I should have clarified. I meant if recon had located a closed center enough to upgrade if, then they would have probably said that, but based upon these last few pages, doesn't look like the found anything

[stormhunter7]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

Clearly the low level circulation is now north of the islands. the middle level vort went SW. Clearly shear is affecting this system and will keep it in check. doubt NHC will pull the trigger at this moment, as there is no deep convection over the center. But 99L is back in the ATL and tracking nnw towards bahamas now and should miss all the big islands ahead.

[HurriGuy]

from the 00z ECMWF, it did not have a stacked system until Friday 00z. I don't know what everyone was expecting today. So far the model hasn't missed a beat. Had the system decoupled at 18z today pretty severely

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

LLC maintaining convection to the SE...