ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

from the 00z ECMWF, it did not have a stacked system until Friday 00z. I don't know what everyone was expecting today. So far the model hasn't missed a beat. Had the system decoupled at 18z today pretty severely

People are just understandably anxious. Models showing possible TC hitting South Florida in 4 days and then maybe a Cat 3 in GOM bathrub; makes people impatient to actually see "something".

This is the first true Gulf Coast threat in a long time. I hope people are patient an understanding about that. People are anxious because we went from not a whole lot of threat, to a potential Cat 4 if the Euro is correct.

[SoupBone]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

Can you link a shear chart showing this?

[tolakram]

Here is a shot from the San Juan Radar

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/922/EOUeN8.png[/img]

looks like an open wave at best.

That would be looking way up int he atmosphere at MLC levels.

[AutoPenalti]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

Can you link a shear chart showing this?

Look back 2-3 pages, and the it shows. GFS may have been right all along.

[StormHunter72]

completely agree soupbone but this thing is falling apart at this point. Good news

[StormHunter72]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

Can you link a shear chart showing this?

Look back 2-3 pages, and the it shows. GFS may have been right all along.

Nah...... it only nailed debby

[RL3AO]

I'll check back in an hour for when the Euro still shows a storm and we go from "this is dead" to "OMG WATCH OUT".

[Siker]

Good lord, people need to understand that even on the Euro this is nothing more than a weak low / TD until Saturday.

If you use short term trends to make long term forecasts, you're gonna have a bad time.

[SoupBone]

completely agree soupbone but this thing is falling apart at this point. Good news

If this thing falls apart, I'll record myself sautéing my shoe and eating pieces of it.

I'm interested in the increasing shear in the middle of the GoM. No one has commented on it but me, and no one seems interested.

[StormHunter72]

Here is a shot from the San Juan Radar braod

[img ]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/922/EOUeN8.png[/img]

looks like an open wave at best.

That would be looking way up int he atmosphere at MLC levels.

it's so broad and tilted. Guess time will tell.

[chaser1]

As good as this looked late last night, it now appears that the bus that ran 99L over this a.m., decided to put her in reverse and back over 99L one more time LOL. On visible Satellite I plainly see some remnant low to mid level low over E. Hispanola moving onward, I see what seems to be the actual LLC exposed and shooting NNW just over and north of the Virgin Islands, and lastly what appears to me as the remains of the core mid level circulation over the Leeward Islands and N.E. Caribbean slowly moving off to the west. We've seen decoupled systems where the LLC simply rides off into the sunset and ..."poof" (gone). We've also seen these redevelop too. In fairness to the models, its no wonder they've appeared to have so much difficulty with forecasting genesis. At least now that we think we know where a LLC appears to be and it would appear to no longer risk further entanglement with land, it'll be interesting to see how models handle the system over the next 5 days. I'm most curious if or how much the EURO backs off on intensity for the short to mid term.

[JaxGator]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

It has impressive winds right now and, the vorticity has been said to match what the Euro has for it at this time today.

[stormlover2013]

it isn't supposed to develop till Saturday calm down lol we have time

[StormHunter72]

Good lord, people need to understand that even on the Euro this is nothing more than a weak low / TD until Saturday.

If you use short term trends to make long term forecasts, you're gonna have a bad time.

Check out water vapor. Ex Fionna ULL.

[BobHarlem]

Why are some folks calling death on this one while it still has TS winds being reported by recon, and all the models still had it as a low for today (all the way back to this past Sunday.Monday)? So far it's pretty much as expected.

[linkerweather]

it isn't supposed to develop till Saturday calm down lol we have time

And herein lines the problem.....people actually WANT hurricanes to hit land and affect people.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768502379176136705

[RL3AO]

What is shear? Its the difference between the 850 mb winds and the 200 mb winds.

The 850 mb winds are almost entirely from the east. There is an anti-cyclone at 200 mb over the system. This means on the north side of the high, there is a lot of shear because the winds at 850 and 200 are from opposite directions. On the east side, where the convection is, there is northerly shear because the winds are from the north at 200 mb. However, right where the low level vorticity is, there is still little shear because its right underneath/south of the anti-cyclone.

So, give it 12 to 24 more hours and check back. It's probably about the 5th time people have called this thing dead or said next. You guys are absurdly over-reacting to two hours of satellite images.

[tolakram]

Check out water vapor. Ex Fionna ULL.

Lows spin in the other direction. Not sure what you are seeing.

People, take your time, think before posting, and try not to post one line reactionary thoughts.

live wv loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[CFLHurricane]

This place gives me whiplash sometimes.

I'll be boarding the wait and see bus with the others. Not writing this one off until it reaches the Bahamas.