ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

It's probably about the 5th time people have called this thing dead or said next. You guys are absurdly over-reacting to two hours of satellite images.

I know you've been around a while, moderating this board. Are you shaking off the rust? This is every season.

BTW, ya'll are doing a great job, and not ruling with a heavy hand. It's the first real threat in a long time. People are cuckoo.

[psyclone]

it isn't supposed to develop till Saturday calm down lol we have time

And herein lines the problem.....people actually WANT hurricanes to hit land and affect people.

Hey Josh...I just want an offshore wind and a clean ground swell on our beaches:)

[Blown Away]

We now have LLC, continued persistent convection, tracked through Hebert Box, tracking N of the big islands, couple days from SE Bahamas, moving WNW, 85++ degree SST, and over 1000 miles from Florida... Doesn't take much to ramp up if 99L finds a sweet spot... Must be respected IMO...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

A strong tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure is
moving westward across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Reports from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft and surface
observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined
circulation, but it nevertheless is producing tropical-storm-force
winds in squalls over the northernmost Leeward Islands and adjacent
waters. Although upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for additional development, this system could
become a tropical storm or tropical depression at any time during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development by the weekend when the system is near the
central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, squalls to tropical storm force can be
expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the
northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon. Strong
winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are
expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next
couple of days. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National
Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[northjaxpro]

it isn't supposed to develop till Saturday calm down lol we have time

Yeah, some people are forgetting that the models for the past few days had been suggesting thatconditions will not be more conducive for this system to begin ramping up until 99L gets into the Bahamas or in its approach toward Florida late this week into the weekend.

[AutoPenalti]

I may have said this thing is dying, but that doesn't mean I'm calling bones on it. This is actually helping itself in a way by decoupling the MLC. It isn't that hard for convection to fire back especially heading into DMAX.

[StormHunter72]

it isn't supposed to develop till Saturday calm down lol we have time

And herein lines the problem.....people actually WANT hurricanes to hit land and affect people.

Hey Josh...I just want an offshore wind and a clean ground swell on our beaches:)

Exactly my point. Josh.

[Blown Away]

Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development by the weekend when the system is near the
central or northwestern Bahamas.

Interesting the NHC still thinking Central to NW Bahamas...

[hohnywx]

it isn't supposed to develop till Saturday calm down lol we have time

And herein lines the problem.....people actually WANT hurricanes to hit land and affect people.

Yeah, because anyone hoping for a hurricane actually affects the outcome of it, right?

[SouthFLTropics]

We now have LLC, continued persistent convection, tracked through Hebert Box, tracking N of the big islands, couple days from SE Bahamas, moving WNW, 85++ degree SST, and over 1000 miles from Florida... Doesn't take much to ramp up if 99L finds a sweet spot... Must be respected IMO...

I concur with this assessment. Let's assume for a second that what we are seeing currently was the first sign of development. Many people would say that it is well on its way. The main reason we are getting the "storm cancel" posts is because of how it looked last night versus right now. It's all about relativity people.

[RL3AO]

There's some flat out wrong things getting said in here. Fiona is not an upper level low. It still has an anti-cyclone associated with it. There is an upper low much further to the east. There is a mid-latitude trough (black line) that is forecast to cut-off into an upper low over the next couple days, but the GFS cuts it off much further south and west than the Euro.

[ronjon]

This place gives me whiplash sometimes.

I'll be boarding the wait and see bus with the others. Not writing this one off until it reaches the Bahamas.

Yeah i think the other factor here is the model inconsistency between the GFS and Euro and the fact that the system still could face some hostile conditions in the future with dry air and ULLs. This requires patience to watch and wait for model consistency and presentation. Not many have that.

[StormHunter72]

it isn't supposed to develop till Saturday calm down lol we have time

And herein lines the problem.....people actually WANT hurricanes to hit land and affect people.

Yeah, because anyone hoping for a hurricane actually affects the outcome of it, right?

We don't hope for a nuclear war either

[abajan]

... Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour) ...

That's over 3 inches in an hour, which is quite heavy. (Nothing when compared to the record of 1.5 inches in 1 minute, which occurred in 1970 but it's still a lot.)

Thanks for keeping us updated, Gusty.

[StormHunter72]

There's some flat out wrong things getting said in here. Fiona is not an upper level low. It still has an anti-cyclone associated with it. There is an upper low much further to the east. There is a mid-latitude trough (black line) that is forecast to cut-off into an upper low over the next couple days, but the GFS cuts it off much further south and west than the Euro.

Thanks for answering my comment with respect. I joined here because I wanted to learn. Has a real stiff feeling for newbies.

[stormhunter7]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/768507968237207552

[chaser1]

... Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour) ...

That's over 3 inches in an hour, which is quite heavy. (Nothing when compared to the record of 1.5 inches in 1 minute, which occurred in 1970 but it's still a lot.)

Thanks for keeping us updated, Gusty.

Hope things start drying out for you down there. At least LLC appears to be moving out and away soon

[OntarioEggplant]

I'm so far entertained by how many posters... Every Euro run for the past few days... Have said "it's weaker and caving to the GFS" based on the first 48 hours or so of the model.

This is well to the SW of where the GFS was so far. There is no crazy Fiona ULL on this model. Calm down.

[Gustywind]

... Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour) ...

That's over 3 inches in an hour, which is quite heavy. (Nothing when compared to the record of 1.5 inches in 1 minute, which occurred in 1970 but it's still a lot.)

Thanks for keeping us updated, Gusty.

You're welcomed Abajan, glad to see you back and to answer me, that's always a pleasure . For the record that you were speaking about... oh yeah not for now lol, that was impressive in 1970 . Seems that Guadeloupe and even the others Leewards were blessed as usual . Unless some minor floodings, we received very beneficial rains in some areas Did you received some nice rains from 99L Abajan?
Gustywind

[ConvergenceZone]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

I agree. I think the party is over. It would be a miracle if it somehow survives this. I haven't checked the model page, but wouldn't be surprised if they start backing off on any development whatsoever.