ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Up to this point it has been the GFS all over the place, remember it had 99L a strong TS in the NE Carib. at one time. I'm not trusting the GFS on this right now.

[Alyono]

sp, we have anywhere from a cat 4 in the Gulf to no disturbance worth monitoring

What is your 7 day prediction for this disturbance?

The exact forecast is only available only to paying clients. Sorry

However, this is one that needs to be watched

[stormlover2013]

198 hours out ridge stronger

[NDG]

This time the GFS hits it with shear from a ULL that pinches off from the northeast. In the 12Z it was a ULL from the northwest.

Yeap, unlike the 12 Euro the GFS never builds an UL ridge close to 99L over the Bahamas, nothing but dry northerly shear over it.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

My mistake I was referring to the NOGAPS.

[Hammy]

GFS not entirely done with it on this run, there's still something there at 210 hours.

[Kingarabian]

GFS not entirely done with it on this run, there's still something there at 210 hours.

99L's vorticity seems to be slightly better defined than the 12z run at this time frame.

[stormlover2013]

Ridge is strong about 210 hours out...interesting

[p1nheadlarry]

Elena would be better than Hugo, the track took it over the islands which kept the intensity in check.

Unfair comparison. Hugo was a monster before it ever reached the islands.

[Mouton]

According to last of current run of GFS at 252 hours, weak low in SE Florida. With the ridge moving away, could go right up the peninsula?? Slightly off either side could be quite important. This is over 10 days out for a storm that is not even a TD as yet so all bets are off for about five days according to Cowan. His most recent update is superb BTW.

[Dean4Storms]

I can't see this sitting down there for a week in the Bahamas. Somebody needs to put the GFS on life support!

[xcool22]

I can't see this sitting down there for a week in the Bahamas. Somebody needs to put the GFS on life support!

lmao

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true, but I heard that the GFS data at 00z is "refreshed". So that 00z run will be key to see if it falls back in line with the Euro. If it doesn't, then the 00z Euro run will be key to see if it backs off development. I feel like we're going to have a long week with the models being on and off.

[p1nheadlarry]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true, but I heard that the GFS data at 00z is "refreshed". So that 00z run will be key to see if it falls back in line with the Euro. If it doesn't, then the 00z Euro run will be key to see if it backs off development. I feel like we're going to have a long week with the models being on and off.

I'm not entirely sure what that means, but if anything I'm betting the models will be a lot better off after HH fly in tomorrow, barring cancellation.

[hohnywx]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true, but I heard that the GFS data at 00z is "refreshed". So that 00z run will be key to see if it falls back in line with the Euro. If it doesn't, then the 00z Euro run will be key to see if it backs off development. I feel like we're going to have a long week with the models being on and off.

Every model run has new data...the old rumor of the 6z and 18z not having new data is not true.

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody have the 18z Navgem?

[SunnyThoughts]

Certainly not what I wanted to see getting home from work today, from the Euro. Guess as always, it is a wait and see situation. Seems the ridge ( and how strong it is) is the determining factor as usual this time of year.

[RL3AO]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true, but I heard that the GFS data at 00z is "refreshed". So that 00z run will be key to see if it falls back in line with the Euro. If it doesn't, then the 00z Euro run will be key to see if it backs off development. I feel like we're going to have a long week with the models being on and off.

This thinking about the 6/18z runs was obsolete 20 years ago. >99% (I think) of model data comes from satellites.

[Frank2]

Maybe, but 99 has hit some sort of wall the past few hours, so the GFS might be right...

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true, but I heard that the GFS data at 00z is "refreshed". So that 00z run will be key to see if it falls back in line with the Euro. If it doesn't, then the 00z Euro run will be key to see if it backs off development. I feel like we're going to have a long week with the models being on and off.

This thinking about the 6/18z runs was obsolete 20 years ago. >99% (I think) of model data comes from satellites.

Ohh okay. Thank you.