ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxmann_91]

If NHC thinks this is only going to intensify 15-20kt over 4 days, I have some oceanfront property in Switzerland to sell them. The storm should only gradually intensify through tomorrow, but rapid intensification is a distinct possibility thereafter. There's a reason the GFS/ECMWF/HWRF all have a Category 4 hurricane. This happened with Gaston too.

It might be a CYA thing... if this RI then NHC can always point to the models as reasons for their conservative forecasts. If however Matthew struggles and they forecast Cat 4 without model support, they're going to be in some hot water.

[Yellow Evan]

NHC IMO is giving too much weight to SHIPS/LGEM, which don't seem to seem to show the storm responding from warm waters.

[Alyono]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

Interesting...curious how he would know this information ?

the dropsonde data can be compared to the model forecasts

[sma10]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

This is interesting information however it didn't bear out in the 0z Nam which shifted significantly to the NE, suggesting that the high is not stronger. Or is the Nam just too krappy a model?

[1900hurricane]

For those curious, I posted 00Z GFS initialization compared to forecasts from the 12Z and 18Z forecasts for 500 mb height.

[floridasun78]

i want see what my weather from wfor say but i have wait for boring post game dolphins end i let you know soon

[floridasun78]

Too early to tell. I wouldn’t take any bets on it either coming here or not coming here……
that from Setzer, Craig

[ThetaE]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

This is interesting information however it didn't bear out in the 0z Nam which shifted significantly to the NE, suggesting that the high is not stronger. Or is the Nam just too krappy a model?

Lol, it's probably the NAM; it shouldn't really be used for tropical disturbances, because it wasn't designed for them. Maybe if you want to look at the evolution of some approaching trough or ridge you could use it, but never for a tropical cyclone's track/intensity.

[otowntiger]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

WFTV (Orlando) Chief Met. Tom Terry said the same exact thing but said it may only potentially result in a slight west shift. In my opinion this storm will stay well east of Florida and the rest of the CONUS.

[fci]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

I saw his report and he said that the track might nudge just a little bit West but not enough to make a big difference for us here in South Florida.
Of course he added the correct caveat to follow the advisories.
The work he does and his associates do; is excellent. Facebook live updates........ he is a good one.

[fci]

The timing complexities Mark and Levi were hinting at have to do with a number of things. Most importantly, it's not just about how quickly Matthew moves but how quickly the ridge builds back in. If the ridge builds in quickly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go more westward. If the ridge builds in slowly compared to Matthew's location/speed, he will go further east. The G-IV plane was collecting data on exactly this ridge, so hopefully the 00z models will resolve its evolution better, and reduce the modeling issue to simply one of a variance in Matthew's speed.

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

Interesting...curious how he would know this information ?

He referred to data from the Gulfstreams

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be quickly transitioning from a shear pattern to a CDO-dominant hurricane.

[1900hurricane]

Seems to be quickly transitioning from a shear pattern to a CDO-dominant hurricane.

Was just about to say pretty much this. The convection is no longer pulsing and is now clearly wrapping up into the center.

[fci]

Seems to be quickly transitioning from a shear pattern to a CDO-dominant hurricane.

Was just about to say pretty much this. The convection is no longer pulsing and is now clearly wrapping up into the center.

What is that area southeast of the actual storm separated by a little alleyway?
Is that normal?

[sponger]

Banding coming on.

[1900hurricane]

Seems to be quickly transitioning from a shear pattern to a CDO-dominant hurricane.

Was just about to say pretty much this. The convection is no longer pulsing and is now clearly wrapping up into the center.

What is that area southeast of the actual storm separated by a little alleyway?
Is that normal?

It's just a convective burst in a confluent band, nothing unusual.

[NotoSans]

I am still not leaning towards the NHC intensity forecast, which shows only a 5-kt intensification within the next 24 hours. With an inner core established I would expect at least gradual development in the near term.

[sponger]

Certainly appears to continue to gradually strengthen.

[Hurricaneman]

Was just about to say pretty much this. The convection is no longer pulsing and is now clearly wrapping up into the center.

What is that area southeast of the actual storm separated by a little alleyway?
Is that normal?

It's just a convective burst in a confluent band, nothing unusual.

looks like an eye is trying to show up

[sponger]

Sure is!