ATL: HERMINE - Models

[jlauderdal]

Wow 961MB on the HWRF

Hwrf has been overcooking intensity for years

[SFLcane]

HWRF has a powerful hurricane heading westward towards Florida. Likely overdone..lets hope.

[gatorcane]

Scary HWRF. Look at the upper-air pattern for this. No ULL to be seen like the GFS:

[CrazyC83]

What is causing the models to sense that this will make a boomerang like move back over Florida when in the Gulf? Ridge over the western Gulf combined with a building trough for a late recurve?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

What is the timeframe for this??? Late week?

[northjaxpro]

HWRF has a powerful hurricane heading westward towards Florida. Likely overdone..lets hope.

Man ain't that the truth!!!!!!! Please let this likely be overdone!!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

What is causing the models to sense that this will make a boomerang like move back over Florida when in the Gulf? Ridge over the western Gulf combined with a building trough for a late recurve?

Models smell ridging..they are usually right about this but again these are just models

[CrazyC83]

HWRF has a powerful hurricane heading westward towards Florida. Likely overdone..lets hope.

Since that is a very compact storm, 958mb may be enough for a Cat 4 there.

[gatorcane]

That HWRF looks like it could end up similar to the 1947 Palm Beach hurricane but even stronger in the Bahamas:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[AutoPenalti]

What is the timeframe for this??? Late week?

This Sunday at 126 Hrs

[xcool22]

wow HWRF omg

[paintplaye]

What is causing the models to sense that this will make a boomerang like move back over Florida when in the Gulf? Ridge over the western Gulf combined with a building trough for a late recurve?

Strong ridging is developing over the southeast coast and creates the westward push. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate this, but the key will be how fast this breaks down and moves westward.

[gatorcane]

Only thing I will say about the HWRF is that was showing a hurricane out of 99L near Barbados several days ago in its runs and that doesn't look like it will happen.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF is overdone, it'll change.

[ronjon]

Even 18z GFDL now develops 99L into 1000 mb tropical storm in Bahamas at 126 hrs.

[BobHarlem]

I am not liking this trend of no models going out to sea on 99L, I just hope it stays on the weak side.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Very early on but i still think this ends up heading into the gulf. Whatever it is by then, i have no idea, but the way that high pressure disappears on the Euro, not so sure about that.

[northjaxpro]

I normally agree that the HWRF overdoes intensity in most instances. BUT, the model did show Danny's rapid intensification into a major hurricane from last season. So, you certainly can't.completely discount it.

[jlauderdal]

I normally agree that the HWRF overdoes intensity in most instances. BUT, the model did show Danny's rapid intensification to a major hurricane from last season. So, you certainly can't.completely discount it.

correct, each model has its bias and hwrf could verify

[PTrackerLA]

I've seen tweets about how great the HWRF was for Earl. To spare myself from a long search can anyone sum up what it saw before other models did?