ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it makes it out of Hispaniola just fine.

[TheStormExpert]

Smells like an Erika redux just minus the record Caribbean shear.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it makes it out of Hispaniola just fine.

Probably because it hugs the northern coast.

[Bocadude85]

Smells like an Erika redux just minus the record Caribbean shear.

Also a little reminiscent of Hurricanes Georges so far.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Smells like an Erika redux just minus the record Caribbean shear.

Well shear is what kept Erika weak and allowed it to track into Hispaniola. Or am I wrong?

[PTrackerLA]

I'd be surprised if this run doesn't hit the Conus.

You could be right it's following JB's thoughts from this morning on 99L so far. He thought the GFS was way overdone and too far north.

[Siker]

Nothing on the 12z UKMET.

[TheStormExpert]

Smells like an Erika redux just minus the record Caribbean shear.

Well shear is what kept Erika weak and allowed it to track into Hispaniola. Or am I wrong?

Yep shear caused it to never get it's act together prior to Hispaniola and allow the track to shift south into Hispaniola as time progressed.

[SouthFLTropics]

Going right into the TC shredder. Let us see if it is destroyed.

That's a very large shift south and west of the 00z model. I think the thing to take from this is that there is a very good possibility that there will be a tropical cyclone in vicinity of the SE Bahamas. The only question is how strong, and where does it go from there.

[Kingarabian]

I don't know if the intensity with this track is believable.

[tolakram]

Nothing on the 12z UKMET.

Show me please. I have yet to find confirmation that the ukie completely dropped this.

I'm surprised the GFS still develops this, and especially skeptical of the GFS cranking up intensity in the graveyard and then running it over hispaniola. I think all we can take away from this run is delayed development, if any, and possibly a stronger ridge.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Going right into the TC shredder. Let us see if it is destroyed.

That's a very large shift south and west of the 00z model. I think the thing to take from this is that there is a very good possibility that there will be a tropical cyclone in vicinity of the SE Bahamas. The only question is how strong, and where does it go from there.

I agree just hope Hispaniola can do its job and kill it before it gets there. Any further south and the Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean is a real possibility.

[Alyono]

another BS FLAS on CMC

Turns it northeast of the Caribbean into a weakness caused by a phantom HURRICANE Fiona

[TheStormExpert]

Going right into the TC shredder. Let us see if it is destroyed.

That's a very large shift south and west of the 00z model. I think the thing to take from this is that there is a very good possibility that there will be a tropical cyclone in vicinity of the SE Bahamas. The only question is how strong, and where does it go from there.

Not certain but it could also just plow through the Caribbean with no development until it reaches the Eastern Pacific.

[Alyono]

Going right into the TC shredder. Let us see if it is destroyed.

That's a very large shift south and west of the 00z model. I think the thing to take from this is that there is a very good possibility that there will be a tropical cyclone in vicinity of the SE Bahamas. The only question is how strong, and where does it go from there.

I agree just hope Hispaniola can do its job and kill it before it gets there. Any further south and the Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean is a real possibility.

and have this kill 10,000 as it moves slowly over Hispañiola, causing catastrophic mudslides?

[TheStormExpert]

another BS FLAS on CMC

Turns it northeast of the Caribbean into a weakness caused by a phantom HURRICANE Fiona

Ah! Classic Canadian model.

[Bocadude85]

204 hours this is in the winward passage

[gatorcane]

BIG west shift by the GFS as the Bermuda High that we have seen holding strong all summer has returned on this run...

[tarheelprogrammer]

another BS FLAS on CMC

Turns it northeast of the Caribbean into a weakness caused by a phantom HURRICANE Fiona

That model is a joke sometimes and being honest most of the time. Seemed to be better earlier this season and now. Not so much. Fujiwara Effect for every system and weird phantom storms popping up.

[tarheelprogrammer]

BIG west shift by the GFS as the Bermuda High that we have seen holding strong all summer has returned on this run...

Ridge is weakening here though right?