ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Kingarabian]

Early to say, but it looks like the models are indeed trending east. This run by the GFS will not clear Florida though. If the GFS is to follow the Euro, it usually does it in a gradual fashion. So the 12z suite will be very telling.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.

trending east..this thing will avoid the USA on this trend

[KWT]

Big hit on the Keys this run!

Florida going to get hard on this run, maybe up the west coast of Florida.

PS, I would NOT call one run a trend....its closer to the ensembles BUT do not get carried away at this stage...especially as models tend to be a little quick on going north this far out....

[cajunwx]

One run isn't a trend.

[USTropics]

Landfall near Fort Myers, heading north up the coast:

[Kingarabian]

One run isn't a trend.

The four major global models have shifted east. I would say that's a trend.

[Ivanhater]

Trend at 240 hours and still in the Gulf? Lol

[brunota2003]

A few hundred miles east or west between one run and the next at 10-11 days out is a drop in the bucket, and hardly a trend. For all we know, more of the ensembles could shift west. Remember, this is just ONE member.

[Alyono]

looks like a final landfall in Toronto, similar to Hazel in that aspect

[cajunwx]

One run isn't a trend.

The four major global models have shifted east. I would say that's a trend.

For one run.... 2 weeks away... ok.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs status quo at 240 hours...Euro Ensembles shifted west...and we are talking trend at 240 plus hours?

[USTropics]

Trend at 240 hours and still in the Gulf? Lol

I don't see a trend at all, I see two totally different upper level snyoptics by both models (the operational GFS and ECMWF). The 06z and 00z GFS runs are nearly identical, the position of the high is just further north in the long range, allowing a more northward motion for 97L. The GFS is still kicking that cut off low out. The 00z ECMWF fails to even develop a ridge off the EC, instead is has a blocked cut off low that lingers from 120 hours through 240 hours.

[GCANE]

GFS 355K PV
Continues to show very favorable UL conditions for deep intensification in the GOM.
A trough is forecast to develop to its north and sweep east as it enters the GOM.
It will take the "path of least resistance" and follow into the trough.
So, the way I read it at this point, if it gets anywhere in the mid GOM, it will start a recurve and west coast of FL would be likely landfall.
Will continue to watch the forecast if this feature persists.

[jlauderdal]

One run isn't a trend.

The four major global models have shifted east. I would say that's a trend.

For one run.... 2 weeks away... ok.

you guys/gals maybe looking at the one run this morning but go back and look where the models were yesterday and the day before...you are correct that one run isnt a trend so dont look at one run, i dont

[brunota2003]

I noticed on the TCHP maps that once you get into the GOM, the TCHP is nearly nonexistent. I wonder how that will play into things, and impact the intensity of 97L (assuming it develops and moves into the Gulf). Granted, we are talking ~10 days out, which could allow for some rebuilding of the heat.

[Kingarabian]

Gfs status quo at 240 hours...Euro Ensembles shifted west...and we are talking trend at 240 plus hours?

00z EPS control on weatherbell shows a recurve east of Florida compared to the 12z EPS which shows a landfall over the Yucatan.

[KWT]

Gfs status quo at 240 hours...Euro Ensembles shifted west...and we are talking trend at 240 plus hours?

00z EPS control on weatherbell shows a recurve east of Florida compared to the 12z EPS which shows a landfall over the Yucatan.

Which is crazy and tells you you really shouldn't pay attention to that, to shift 1000 miles in 12hrs of the models says that you may as well not pay it any credence.

Just remember models tend to go north too early and break down ridges too quickly. I give an eastern solution MORE credence than say in August but this thing is WAY south so its going to take a heck of a weakness for it to bend like it does on the CMC.

Also remember the CMC is too far north to start with and develops the wrong area so that may not be a run to pay that much attention to.

Personally I'm liking the 06z GFS guidence, I think that is in the right ballpark.

[Ivanhater]

Well let's add even more confusion to the models, the ECMWF ensembles look to be significantly SW of the operational.



Ensembles also show ridging off the EC at 240 hours. Totally disagreeing with the operational.

00Z Euro Ensembles. .shift west

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles at 192 hours, pretty good agreement with the operational run so far:

[cajunwx]

The four major global models have shifted east. I would say that's a trend.

For one run.... 2 weeks away... ok.

you guys/gals maybe looking at the one run this morning but go back and look where the models were yesterday and the day before...you are correct that one run isnt a trend so dont look at one run, i dont

You can't pick and choose what to look at to fit your narrative of it heading towards you, the fact is there is no trend.