ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/785083469864931328

That's not good.

[Kazmit]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/785083469864931328

That's much stronger than the NHC forecasts (but then again, they have been known to be conservative). Definitely a possibility though.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016

Overnight microwave data indicated that Nicole had formed a
well-defined low- to mid-level eye, embedded within a significant
convective burst. Since then, the shear has caused the new
convective growth to diminish and pushed the coldest cloud tops
south of the low-level center. Satellite classifications are T3.0
and T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend of these is used
to set the initial intensity estimate to 50 kt.

Nicole appears to have drifted southeastward during the last
several hours, but is now essentially stationary. The blocking
ridge north of Nicole has begun to shift eastward, which should
cause the cyclone to begin a slow motion, generally toward the
north. Variations in the orientation and strength of this ridge in
the GFS and ECMWF solutions result in either a north-northeastward
or north-northwestward motion, respectively, during the next couple
of days, and these differences could have implications on Nicole's
track longer term. A turn toward the northeast is expected late in
the period when Nicole reaches the mid-latitude westerly flow. The
split in the track guidance over the forecast period is notable
this cycle, with the ECMWF and all but a few of its 0000 UTC
ensemble members even or left of the previous forecast track. All of
the other track guidance is to the east, including the GFS which is
the rightmost of the members in this camp. The new forecast track
is very near the previous one in deference to the ECMWF and its
ensemble output even though the model consensus aids are to the
east through at least 96 hours.

The strong northerly shear over Nicole has marginally decreased
since yesterday, but is forecast to remain at about the same
magnitude for another 24 hours. The shear should then gradually
diminish until about day 3, and Nicole is likely to find itself in
the lowest-shear environment it has seen in several days. Since
the cyclone will be over anomalously warm waters at that time, in a
moist environment and under a somewhat diffluent flow aloft,
intensification seems likely. The intensity forecast is increased
over the previous one and is slightly above the multi-model
consensus. It should be noted that the global models show
significant deepening of Nicole starting around this time,
potentially much more than what is indicated in this forecast.
Southwesterly shear should greatly increase by day 4, which could
curb any additional intensification after that time unless the
cyclone' intensification is being driven by baroclinic forcing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.0N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.1N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 27.0N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 28.6N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.8N 64.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 34.9N 59.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

NNNN

[Systa]

Good Catch on the blow up of Nichole on Infrared, Abajan. And the current infrared at Nasa looks even more fierce.

I'm having trouble finding any Dropsonde data.....this sure blew up big and fast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/785083469864931328

That's much stronger than the NHC forecasts (but then again, they have been known to be conservative). Definitely a possibility though.

It's supported by both the GFS and ECMWF. Nicole's a very tenacious tropical cyclone.

[Alyono]

NHC not learning from Matthew. Stop using LGEM when you have every single global model saying cat 3

[alan1961]

From the space station.

[Nimbus]

At least Nicole has stopped dropping south. She looks like she is getting her act together and she has some warm water as she climbs north. Looks like the same trough will get both her and Matthew?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still a fair amount of northerly shear impacting Nicole, but it's definitely starting to get that "look" to it again. Also, note how much larger Nicole has become since it was a Cat 2.

[gatorcane]

12Z EC with what looks like a direct hit on Bermuda

[Hammy]

If Nicole follows the models, this would be the first time in five years to have three major hurricanes. And there appears to be a northern eye wall trying to form, at least at the mid-levels.

[TheStormExpert]

By the looks of the models this very well could be our 3rd major hurricane of the season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z ATCF up to 55 knots. I wouldn't be surprised to see 70mph at 5pm considering the continued improved satellite appearance. Hurricane again by 11:00pm?

[CrazyC83]

I think with Matthew no longer really in the picture, it may get its act together again.

[Exalt]

If Nicole follows the models, this would be the first time in five years to have three major hurricanes. And there appears to be a northern eye wall trying to form, at least at the mid-levels.

It looks very poised to make a run for hurricane status tomorrow if not today.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern has become better organized this afternoon.
Deep convection has been pulsing but, unlike yesterday, it has not
diminished. The cyclone's maintenance of deep convection suggests
that the vertical shear has decreased, which is supported by the
SHIPS analyses. In addition, the low-level center is underneath but
on the northwestern side of a formative and expanding central dense
overcast, consisting of cold cloud tops. Dvorak classifications are
T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is
therefore raised to 55 kt.

Nicole has been nearly stationary during the last several hours. A
slow motion generally toward the north or north-northwest is
expected to commence soon, now that the blocking high north of it
has slid to the northeast of Nicole. A shortwave trough currently
over the northeastern United States is shown in global model
solutions bypassing Nicole in about 2 days. The ECMWF has stronger
ridging in the wake of this feature than the GFS, and thus carries
Nicole farther to the west as did the 0000 UTC ECMWF ensembles. A
turn toward the north and northeast is likely after 72 hours once
Nicole reaches a belt of stronger mid-latitude southwesterly flow.
The new track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the
previous one and is slower, and it is shifted again toward the
ECMWF. The NHC track is close to an average of the ECMWF and GFS
models and to the west of the other model consensus aids.

Northerly vertical shear of 20 to 25 kt over Nicole will continue
for about another 24 hours, which should prevent significant
intensification from occurring. After that time, the shear is
forecast to gradually diminish and remain relatively low until
about 3 days. The reduction of shear, in combination with
near-record warm SSTs, a relatively moist environment, and an
increasingly diffluent flow aloft, suggest that intensification is
likely. The only caveat involves much a cooler and drier air mass
in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew would affect Nicole.
The new intensity forecast is increased again, much more than in the
previous advisory, and is near the high end of the guidance in
closest agreement with the SHIPS model. It is worth mentioning that
global models continue to show significant deepening in 2 to 3 days,
still more than indicated in the current forecast. The guidance
shows a sharp increase in shear by 96 hours, which ordinarily would
curb any further intensification. However, baroclinic forcing could
offset the negative effects of the shear and Nicole should at a
minimum maintain its intensity if not intensify a bit further.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 24.2N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 25.0N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 26.6N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.2N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 28.4N 66.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 35.4N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Kazmit]

Winds up to 65mph and expected to pass Bermuda with 90mph winds. Windfield is certainly increasing.

[abajan]

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: A combination of swells associated with Nicole and Post-
Tropical Cyclone Matthew are expected to affect Bermuda during the
next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf
conditions.

When I saw that line in the 11 AM advisory, I started wondering about the possibility of rogue waves being generated. Sea vessels in the area should probably be on the lookout for them.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[gatorcane]

18Z MU (GFS) with a direct hit on Bermuda