EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[Kazmit]

This is a very southern storm. I wonder if this will set the record for the most (or one of the most) southern hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea? (That is, if it becomes a hurricane which is quite likely).

[Cunxi Huang]

OTTO 21/2145Z GOES-13 RGB

[Kingarabian]

If it makes it into the EPAC intact, will it keep its name?

[Alyono]

If it makes it into the EPAC intact, will it keep its name?

yes, if advisories are continuous

As an aside, I do not belive Cesar would have as operationally, Cesar was deemed to have dissipated, but BT kept it as a continuous system

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z models initializing Otto as a 50 knot TS.

[HurricaneRyan]

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

Finally something new in the Atlantic

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Upto 35 inches of precip being modelled atm, with larger falls within the core-wall.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...OTTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SAN ANDRES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 79.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
San Andres island.



TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Deep convection continues to burst over the low-level center of
Otto. A 2329 UTC WindSat microwave overpass shows that the
inner-core structure of the small tropical cyclone has become
better organized with a low-level ring feature now evident.
Dvorak data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have increased to 3.0
and 3.5, respectively, and objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS are
3.2. These data support an initial wind speed of 50 kt, which
could be somewhat conservative.

The upper-level outflow remains well established over the western
and northern portions of the circulation but it remains restricted
to the southeast due to southeasterly shear of 15 to 20 kt. The
shear is forecast to abate a little during the next couple of days
while Otto traverses SSTs of around 29C. These conditions favor
intensification and the NHC forecast is near a consensus of the
SHIPS and LGEM models, and brings Otto to hurricane strength within
36 hours. Although the NHC forecast does not indicate strengthening
between 48 and 72 hours, Otto could become a little stronger after
48 hours and before it moves inland over Central America in about
3 days. After that time, uncertainty remains as to whether the
tropical cyclone will survive its crossing of Central America. The
NHC forecast continues to show the system as a remnant low over the
eastern Pacific, which is supported by most of the global models.

Center fixes from the microwave imagery indicate that Otto has
been drifting southward this evening. The cyclone is not expected
to move much overnight while it remains within an area of weak
steering currents. On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to
begin building to the north of the storm and Otto is forecast to
start moving slowly westward. The ridge is expected to remain in
place during the remainder of the week and Otto should continue to
move generally westward at a slightly faster pace. The new NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between
the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, which is also near the most
recent GFS ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 10.9N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 10.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 10.9N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 11.1N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 11.3N 81.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 11.3N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/0000Z 11.3N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z 10.8N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[mrbagyo]

0636Z GPM 85GHz pass and recent ir imagery are suggesting a developing eye feature

[Alyono]

0636Z GPM 85GHz pass and recent ir imagery are suggesting a developing eye feature

wouldn't call that an eye. However, the core is more broad than earlier. Also, we have heavy storms over Panama. Expect deaths from Panama from this, along with a high toll in Costa Rica

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Deep convection has continued to burst near the low-level center of
Otto tonight. A pair of ASCAT passes between 02Z and 03Z showed
peak winds of around 45 kt, which support maintaining the intensity
at 50 kt for this advisory. This intensity estimate is also
represents a blend of the 06Z subjective Dvorak estimates of 45 kt
and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 53 kt. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Otto later
this morning.

Otto's outflow pattern remains restricted south and southeast of the
center, consistent with about 20 kt of shear analyzed over the
cyclone by the SHIPS model analysis and UW-CIMSS. This shear is
forecast to persist for the next 24 h or so and then abate somewhat
by 36 hours. Given this, some gradual strengthening is expected
while Otto moves over waters of around 29C, and the NHC forecast
shows Otto becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 h. The official
forecast through 48 h is a little above the intensity consensus and
close to the latest FSU Superensemble and the NOAA HFIP consensus
aid HCCA. After that time, land interaction should result in
weakening and much of the guidance continues to suggest that Otto
will weaken to a remnant low after it emerges into the eastern
Pacific, and this is still reflected in the official forecast. It
is worth noting, however, that the ECMWF maintains Otto as a
stronger cyclone over the Pacific through day 5.

After drifting south-southeastward overnight, Otto is estimated to
be stationary. Little net motion is expected today while the
tropical cyclone is caught in a region of weak steering currents. By
24 hours, a mid-level ridge will begin to build north of Otto, which
should impart a west-northwestward motion and then a westward turn
at a slightly faster forward speed by 48 h as the ridge amplifies.
This synoptic pattern should steer Otto toward the coast of Central
America in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, a further westward
acceleration is expected as the mid-level ridge builds westward.
The new NHC track forecast is faster than the previous one at 48
hours and beyond and has been adjusted southward at days 3-5. The
new official forecast lies between HCCA and the FSU Superensemble
through 48 hours and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF after
that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 10.7N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 10.7N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 10.9N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 11.2N 80.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 11.2N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 11.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/0600Z 10.5N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 10.0N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
700 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FINDS OTTO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well organized.

[cycloneye]

First two passes.

[TheEuropean]

Vortex Data Message

000
URNT12 KNHC 221224
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162016
A. 22/12:07:20Z
B. 10 deg 21 min N
079 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1319 m
D. 55 kt
E. 040 deg 11 nm
F. 128 deg 51 kt
G. 039 deg 9 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 21 C / 1526 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E09/17/12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0216A OTTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 129 / 10 NM 11:12:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 63 KT 221 / 11 NM 12:11:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 350 / 4 KT

[cycloneye]

Doing a mini loop.Third pass.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 79.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF LIMON COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica have issued a Hurricane
Watch from the Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields
Nicaragua.

The weather service of Panama has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Panama from Nargana to Colon and a Tropical Storm Watch from
west of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border.



TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Otto is close to becoming a hurricane. Satellite images indicate
that the cloud pattern has become better organized, with a central
dense overcast and broad band feature over the western semicircle
evident. The past Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight
recorded maximum flight-level winds of 65 kt, with SFMR winds of
about 60 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt
for this advisory.

Weak-to-moderate southeasterly shear is expected near Otto for the
next couple of days while the tropical cyclone moves over warm
water. These conditions should allow Otto to continue to
strengthen, and almost all of the guidance has Otto as a hurricane
before making a central American landfall. The official intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, and lies between the
intensity consensus and the HWRF model. Land interaction will
cause weakening after landfall, but a stronger Otto is less likely
to dissipate as quickly over the eastern Pacific. Most of the
guidance now keeps the storm going throughout the period, so the
remnant low designation has been changed to a tropical cyclone
status over the eastern Pacific.

Otto really isn't moving much, with recon fixes showing little net
motion during the morning hours. A mid-level ridge is forecast to
build over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should
cause Otto to move slowly westward. As the ridge builds, the
forecast speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves
across the eastern Pacific. The guidance continues to trend
southward, and the official forecast is shifted in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 10.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.4N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.6N 80.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 10.8N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 10.8N 82.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 10.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 10.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 9.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[chaser1]

I think we're not to far off from seeing an eye feature. Looks like a pinhole eye showing up on this resolution (link below), and i'm guessing will become more evident by nightfall.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... tMsE23.jpg

[Iune]

This is a very southern storm. I wonder if this will set the record for the most (or one of the most) southern hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea? (That is, if it becomes a hurricane which is quite likely).

Hurricane Martha in 1969 attained Category 1 status at 10.3N, and was at that strength as far south as 10.0N. It's also the only hurricane to make landfall in Panama.

At the moment, Otto's track doesn't take it that far south, though it might be a rare Costa Rica landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 NOV 2016 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 10:23:54 N Lon : 79:12:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 982.7mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.9

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -64.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION