ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

It is late August and you have a big Tropical Wave moving into bath water just east of the Bahamas with a Ridge sitting over the Carolina's, I'd give more credence to the HWRF run there than the GFS run that sits a low level large TW over the Bahamas for a week and does nothing with it! Just sayin!

[ronjon]

I'm thinking 00z GFS will show development now that 18z GFDL is latching on to it in Bahamas.

[Kingarabian]

I'm thinking 00z GFS will show development now that 18z GFDL is latching on to it in Bahamas.

Same here.

[blp]

This might have been posted but the UKmet really ramps this up. Scary.

[Ivanhater]

Strengthening storm turning west under a strengthening ridge..not good

[StrongWind]

Strengthening storm turning west under a strengthening ridge..not good

Will a stronger ridge help amplify this storm?

[Javlin]

It seems as many have been noting does a weakness develop in 190-230hr range to pull it back NE JMA ,NavGem and UKMET say no but the GFS,Euro and CMC show it as a possibility.We have had two little circulations come over the NGOM in the last 3-4 weeks which indicates the strength of the ridging and if your wondering two?It was about a week to ten days before the floods in Baton Rouge a swirl went through the FL straits moved over the LA/MS line.It felt and looked tropical as it moved on up to Baton Rouge and presented itself as such from the NO radar.It dumped some good rain along the MSGC while not quite as much as #2 system.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance.





18z GEFS Ensembles.

[Nimbus]

Hate the strengthening ridge trend but you never know maybe 99l will stay weak enough to track over the islands where land interaction prevents development. Unless the ridging moves east we won't get a 2006 Ernesto track up the spine of Florida.
We have to be careful what we wish-cast the SST's in the gulf and Atlantic near the Bahamas are nitro fuel for tropical activity in a low shear environment.

[stormlover2013]

Javlin but gfs and euro ridge is getting strong it seems like on each run not good!!

[SunnyThoughts]

Strengthening storm turning west under a strengthening ridge..not good

Will a stronger ridge help amplify this storm?

Not so much amplifying the storm, but if the ridge is strong...it can't turn northward, it will continue westward..until it feels some sort of weakness to turn it more North.

[CrazyC83]

Strengthening storm turning west under a strengthening ridge..not good

Will a stronger ridge help amplify this storm?

Not so much amplifying the storm, but if the ridge is strong...it can't turn northward, it will continue westward..until it feels some sort of weakness to turn it more North.

At that rate, this might end up in Texas or in the Mexican Gulf Coast. Could we be seeing an Ike-like situation (albeit with a weaker initial storm)?

[deltadog03]

My first initial thoughts...come on by and say hello and please like and share my page...thank you everyone!
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I normally agree that the HWRF overdoes intensity in most instances. BUT, the model did show Danny's rapid intensification into a major hurricane from last season. So, you certainly can't.completely discount it.

But wasnt Danny already a named system when it showed that? IMO the hwrf, much like the cmc, always seem to show every system as the next super cane especially when they are in its infant stages. Better to look at it for the steering pattern.

[Blow_Hard]

Will a stronger ridge help amplify this storm?

Not so much amplifying the storm, but if the ridge is strong...it can't turn northward, it will continue westward..until it feels some sort of weakness to turn it more North.

At that rate, this might end up in Texas or in the Mexican Gulf Coast. Could we be seeing an Ike-like situation (albeit with a weaker initial storm)?

Exactly what I was thinking. If the models continue to show a strengthening ridge I wouldn't be surprised to see the tracks follow suit and continue to shift west. IMO, if you live anywhere on the Gulf Coast you'll want to pay close attention to 99L.

[Nederlander]

It seems that the models are beginning to trend toward a strengthening ridge. The GFS has been out to lunch due to a ULL that the Euro and others have not been seeing, but is seemingly caving. Just a climo synopsis will show that this setup is ripe for a system moving across SE FL and into the gulf with warm waters abundant. And remember that land interaction with S FL is no guarantee of weakening. At this point, it would be prudent for residents of SE FL and the gulf coast from LA to FL to keep an eye out. Still a long ways to go, so no panic, but preparation indeed.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm starting to wonder if the ridge will be strong enough to push this through the Florida Straits missing mainland south Florida.

[jeff]

Models trending left and continue to show more ridging over the SE US. Focus on the overall synoptic scale setup...a lot of ridge over the SE US this weekend all the way west to the Gulf coast. Overall run to run agreement between models and runs is in the dumps...but the ensembles have been showing an increasing leftward trend. Big question is will 99L find a good environment in the Bahamas for development...some negative factors to overcome with the biggest being dry air.

[cajungal]

Just pray this stays away from Louisiana. Baton Rouge and Lafayette areas are a disaster. Last thing this state needs is a storm.

[Blown Away]

I'm starting to wonder if the ridge will be strong enough to push this through the Florida Straits missing mainland south Florida.

Just as likely as any other scenario IMO...