ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z NASA model shows it organizing and turning west near Central Bahamas:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just pray this stays away from Louisiana. Baton Rouge and Lafayette areas are a disaster. Last thing this state needs is a storm.

Can I hear an Amen Sister on that one! That is the last place this needs to go. Add my prayers on that...lets hope there is power in prayer.

[floridasun78]

models are crazy this system not sure if any are right some got weaking other got as cat1 hurr

[Steve]

I don't much like or trust the hwrf but that's whatever. It still sits and spins Lionrock for like 130 hours south of Japan. No way the atmosphere is moving fast a week/week and a half later here. So I'm skeptical that anything happens fast or propagates fast either unless 99L beats the coming pattern slowdown west or north. I don't see it. I'm not suggesting that the HWRF is necessarily right with the Lionrock stall, and I'm not saying 99L will stall either - near, over or south of the Bahamas. But I also wouldn't be 100% surprised if 99L was around for a while either.

[Ntxw]

I don't much like or trust the hwrf but that's whatever. It still sits and spins Lionrock for like 130 hours south of Japan. No way the atmosphere is moving fast a week/week and a half later here. So I'm skeptical that anything happens fast or propagates fast either unless 99L beats the coming pattern slowdown west or north. I don't see it. I'm not suggesting that the HWRF is necessarily right with the Lionrock stall, and I'm not saying 99L will either near, over or south of the Bahamas. But I also wouldn't be 100% surprised if 99L is around for a while either.

The WPAC typhoons in themselves don't cause the buckling of the jet stream. They are a signal of the increased amplification of the jet stream.

[floridasun78]

if slow down that not good their soo much hot water that area that could be bad news hope dry air hold it ground maybe shear will come into area

[RL3AO]

I'd say the GFS has been terrible, but this may be underplaying it. The last half dozen runs of the GFS have been too far south every single time.

(And yes, it's hard to track the center with a disorganized system, but it looks to be consistently too far south.)

[Javlin]

Javlin but gfs and euro ridge is getting strong it seems like on each run not good!!

I am just looking at the past few weeks and what has happened things change slowly in weather in the the 1860's the NGOM was hit by three canes in a 120 mile range it was the prevalent steering pattern at that time.The Euro showed a backdoor exit in the Big Bend area last run following a low to the NE this is like usual all about timing,proximity and strength of the system from 190-230 hrs IF the Euro and GFS see something others just see a ridge which has been present.

[gatorcane]

Strong ridge looking at these models

[RL3AO]

Heres the 0z GEFS from last night with the observed positions plotted as X's. Obviously the center could reform further south, but the GFS is not handling this system well.

[Steve]

I don't much like or trust the hwrf but that's whatever. It still sits and spins Lionrock for like 130 hours south of Japan. No way the atmosphere is moving fast a week/week and a half later here. So I'm skeptical that anything happens fast or propagates fast either unless 99L beats the coming pattern slowdown west or north. I don't see it. I'm not suggesting that the HWRF is necessarily right with the Lionrock stall, and I'm not saying 99L will either near, over or south of the Bahamas. But I also wouldn't be 100% surprised if 99L is around for a while either.

The WPAC typhoons in themselves don't cause the buckling of the jet stream. They are a signal of the increased amplification of the jet stream.

Right. I wasn't suggesting that. It's an indicator of the buckle.

[SeGaBob]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models go west a few hundred more miles.

[Bocadude85]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models go west a few hundred more miles.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the models dropped development. Until we see some run to run consistency nothing will surprise me.

[Hammy]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models go west a few hundred more miles.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the models dropped development. Until we see some run to run consistency nothing will surprise me.

I don't even think we'll see consistency unless this develops, disappears entirely, or we get a plane out there, and the latter is looking less likely tomorrow given the satellite appearance.

[JaxGator]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models go west a few hundred more miles.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the models dropped development. Until we see some run to run consistency nothing will surprise me.

I don't even think we'll see consistency unless this develops, disappears entirely, or we get a plane out there, and the latter is looking less likely tomorrow given the satellite appearance.

For now, it's still firing convection (popcorn rather). Let's see what it does tonight.

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Gfs in 30 minutes. Its really becoming now or never for the Gfs

[Hurricaneman]

00z Gfs in 30 minutes. Its really becoming now or never for the Gfs

The thing is it either comes on board or it stays on an island of its own with no development

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[stormlover2013]

Main thing to look at is the ridge!!!!! That will give us a idea if something does develop where could it possibly go we shall see

[Lori]

Hoping that "it stays on an island of it'so own with no development"

[Kingarabian]

GFS rolling.
Hour 18 the same pretty much. Waiting on hour 100.