ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TimeZone]

Wow. That is some of the most impressive RI I've seen in the Atlantic in quite some time.

[1900hurricane]

Not surprised about the lightning. IR temps on some of the overshoots in the NW eyewall are clearing -90*C.

[SeGaBob]

Well that escalated quickly.

[Alyono]

Not good for Jamaica!

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

[txwatcher91]

How would a stronger system, say a cat 5, effect the ridging and potential track?

[tatertawt24]

This might actually be considered explosive deepening... I don't remember what the cutoff is between rapid and explosive. I guess I got my lightning question answered. Kinda reminding me of Felix right now.

[CrazyC83]

How would a stronger system, say a cat 5, effect the ridging and potential track?

Likely would go a bit farther west, more towards western Cuba and the Cayman Islands I would think?

[sponger]

Not good for Jamaica!

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Strong 3 0r 4 would be devastating.

[galaxy401]

Going to bed, don't know what to expect with Matthew when I wake up. Won't be surprised to see a major then.

[HurricaneFrances04]

VDM was 979 mb, open to the SE.

[Aric Dunn]

Not good for Jamaica!

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Ivan was the worst case scenario ever for Jamaica .. right front quad eyewall across the entire island as a cat 4

[Hammy]

Based on the satellite Matthew may be tapping into the shear to enhance the outflow on the western side. I remember Bertha in 2008 being another storm that did this, headed into 30kt shear, and instead of weakening repelled it and ended up a Cat 3 in a short period of time.




Six hour difference.

[sponger]

Not good for Jamaica!

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Ivan was the worst case scenario ever for Jamaica .. right front quad eyewall across the entire island as a cat 4

Seems like yesterday!

[Alyono]

Not good for Jamaica!

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Ivan was the worst case scenario ever for Jamaica .. right front quad eyewall across the entire island as a cat 4

Damage was significantly less in Jamaica from Ivan than it was for Gilbert. The strongest winds stayed offshore an did not affect Kingston. same thing happened with Dean

Jamaica was incredibly lucky with those two storms. They were a combined 40 miles away from 2 cat 4s

[sponger]

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Ivan was the worst case scenario ever for Jamaica .. right front quad eyewall across the entire island as a cat 4

Damage was significantly less in Jamaica from Ivan than it was for Gilbert. The strongest winds stayed offshore an did not affect Kingston. same thing happened with Dean

Jamaica was incredibly lucky with those two storms. They were a combined 40 miles away from 2 cat 4s

Gilbert was enormous! Held the record until Wilma for lowest pressure i believe.

[Aric Dunn]

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Ivan was the worst case scenario ever for Jamaica .. right front quad eyewall across the entire island as a cat 4

Damage was significantly less in Jamaica from Ivan than it was for Gilbert. The strongest winds stayed offshore an did not affect Kingston. same thing happened with Dean

Jamaica was incredibly lucky with those two storms. They were a combined 40 miles away from 2 cat 4s

agreed
was just mentioning that ivans angle was worst case even though it was just far enough from kingston. this system "on present forecast" keeps right front offshore

[fci]

How would a stronger system, say a cat 5, effect the ridging and potential track?

Likely would go a bit farther west, more towards western Cuba and the Cayman Islands I would think?

That would not be a good thing for Florida unless he turned NE after that

[sponger]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html[url][/url]

Really ramping up now!

[ronyan]

There was such intense convection wrapping around the center throughout the day that I'm not surprised this happened. What a difference 16 hrs makes, and I doubt this is finished intensifying.

[sponger]

South Florida may end up the error cone tomorrow. Track will definitely shift West with Euro and GFS in somewhat of a agreement, but they would wait until 5pm to pull SFL inside the dreaded cone at 5pm if future runs are in agreement. Not good at all. Stringer ridge, stronger storm, slower movement. I still think SFL will only be brushed but who knows what the next few days bring.