ATL: HERMINE - Models

[CrazyC83]

Up to hour 72 - GFS seems to lose the system, and at that point ex-Fiona seems to redevelop?

[Bocadude85]

Really no different from the 18Z so far...

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be staying on an island of its own with no development

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z HWRF blew this up in the Bahamas and it was right with Earl.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the GFS remains the same.

Maybe slightly deeper @ 96 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS *facepalm* maybe next run...

[Hurricaneman]

either the GFS is correct and this doesn't develop or all the other models are right and this develops

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[USTropics]

Fiona heading for landfall in Florida, 99L is left stalled and fizzling out in Bahamas:

[Hammy]

Is it possible there is convective feedback that's interfering with the model's accuracy due to what it's doing with Fiona's remnants?

[hurrtracker79]

I went back and looked at the trends over the last three or four runs and it is slowly correcting towards the other models.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like finally it develops something in the bahamas in around 126hrs

[AtlanticWind]

Closed low at 126

[DESTRUCTION5]

I went back and looked at the trends over the last three or four runs and it is slowly correcting towards the other models.

Agreed..1st run I've seen in a while where there is actually a reflection in the Bahamas.

[Bocadude85]

Is it possible there is convective feedback that's interfering with the model's accuracy due to what it's doing with Fiona's remnants?

I was just wondering the same thing..at 126 hours what's left of Fiona is inland over Florida

[hurrtracker79]

I went back and looked at the trends over the last three or four runs and it is slowly correcting towards the other models.

Agreed..1st run I've seen in a while where there is actually a reflection in the Bahamas.

I think that by tomorrow evening's run the GFS will be fully on board with the other models, assuming the other models hold. I see the very subtle corrections in the upper levels with each run.

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody have the 00z Ukmet and Navgem?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Regardless what it does in terms of development, whatever it may become sure doesn't look like its going north. That ridge looks firmly in place for now. But of course that can and probably will change in a day or two.

[AtlanticWind]

CMC Takes it north in the bahamas

[Hammy]

Does anybody have the 00z Ukmet and Navgem?

Not sure when the Navgem is out, but I think the Ukmet is out around the same time as the Euro--at least on the RUC site.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Fiona's remnants look like they will stsy south of LA and make it all the way into texas. Would have never thought. Wonder is she has the possibility to restrengthen some in the gulf?