ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Just heard CP was down to 966mb from Jim C on the weather channel. So that is down another 5mb since the last advisory. I'm having doubts the shear is as strong as analyzed....no way a TC can intensify at such a rate with that kind of shear over it. Little doubt Matthew should become a major.....MGC

[tolakram]

Just heard CP was down to 966mb from Jim C on the weather channel. So that is down another 5mb since the last advisory. I'm having doubts the shear is as strong as analyzed....no way a TC can intensify at such a rate with that kind of shear over it. Little doubt Matthew should become a major.....MGC

971, he read it wrong.

30 frame IR loop, speed it up to see Matthew strengthen overnight.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=none

[tolakram]

Also note upper cloud motion, it appears an anti-cyclone is overhead now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Matthew will be a great case study of a TC (quickly) intensifying in a moderate wind shear environment. Here is a view of the hot tower in the NW quadrant, associated with a lot of lightning activity:

IMO, I really doubt windshear was near 20 knots over it during the night, I think the people at UW had it wrong. It looks to me that is more like 10-15 knots all along.

This is possible. Regardless, the rate of intensification yesterday from an exposed low-level center to the current state is pretty impressive.


Matthew nearly 24 hr ago:



Matthew now:



The TC has deepened by 24 mb in the last 24 hours.

[NDG]

Just heard CP was down to 966mb from Jim C on the weather channel. So that is down another 5mb since the last advisory. I'm having doubts the shear is as strong as analyzed....no way a TC can intensify at such a rate with that kind of shear over it. Little doubt Matthew should become a major.....MGC

He must have been looking at raw recon data for that pressure, dropsonde from the recon only measure 971mb with a surface wind of only 9 knots.

[wxman57]

The 966mb reading came from the high-density obs:

112200 1346N 07018W 6969 02887 9663 +178 +088 205004 008 031 002 00

[jlauderdal]

Matthew will be a great case study of a TC (quickly) intensifying in a moderate wind shear environment. Here is a view of the hot tower in the NW quadrant, associated with a lot of lightning activity:

[img]https://s21.postimg.org/pq1yisbzr/rgb0_lalo.gif

IMO, I really doubt windshear was near 20 knots over it during the night, I think the people at UW had it wrong. It looks to me that is more like 10-15 knots all along.

the badgers never get it wrong...trust me

[NDG]

Matthew will be a great case study of a TC (quickly) intensifying in a moderate wind shear environment. Here is a view of the hot tower in the NW quadrant, associated with a lot of lightning activity:

IMO, I really doubt windshear was near 20 knots over it during the night, I think the people at UW had it wrong. It looks to me that is more like 10-15 knots all along.

This is possible. Regardless, the rate of intensification yesterday from an exposed low-level center to the current state is pretty impressive.


Matthew nearly 24 hr ago:

[img]https://s21.postimg.org/5db2iv1pj/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1_20160929124500.gif

Matthew now:

[img]https://s21.postimg.org/3zjfnk2g7/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1_20160930111500.gif

The TC has deepened by 24 mb in the last 24 hours.

Well, yes, compared to 24 hrs ago the shear was definitely much higher but it definitely dropped lower than it was estimated to be last night.

[NDG]

And what happened to the Hurricane Killing Down Slopping Dry Winds off of the South American Mountains, nothing but a myth, IMO.

[Bocadude85]

...MATTHEW CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF PUTNA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

Matthew's current position is how far south the NHC expected him to be in 12 hours...so definitely more of a SW movement.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So if the models initialized a much weaker system, what will that do when corrected to the next runs? was there a model predicted this location at this intensity a few days ago with the current synoptic setup guessed? looks to be heading south of west, and still undergoing RI.

[tolakram]

And what happened to the Hurricane Killing Down Slopping Dry Winds off of the South American Mountains, nothing but a myth, IMO.

I disagree. It's doesn't kill storms, it delays development. The fact Matthew entered the Caribbean pretty far north helped a lot in my opinion. Once a storm has formed there's no evidence that the inflow off of SA does anything.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has closed in to Matthew's SW.
Right where Matthew will track into.
And, it will likely slow down enough to get a good stack.

[NDG]

And what happened to the Hurricane Killing Down Slopping Dry Winds off of the South American Mountains, nothing but a myth, IMO.

I disagree. It's doesn't kill storms, it delays development. The fact Matthew entered the Caribbean pretty far north helped a lot in my opinion. Once a storm has formed there's no evidence that the inflow off of SA does anything.

Is the low level easterly jet over the central & eastern Caribbean Sea which creates surface divergence, nothing to do with the downslopping winds off of the Mountains, IMO.

[caneman]

Seems a good bit south of model initiation and the last NHC update. Does it affect eventual track? I have no idea but a mere 100 miles down range can make all the differene. Anyone saying Florida and or North Carolina is off the hook is being foolish.

[caneman]

And what happened to the Hurricane Killing Down Slopping Dry Winds off of the South American Mountains, nothing but a myth, IMO.

I disagree. It's doesn't kill storms, it delays development. The fact Matthew entered the Caribbean pretty far north helped a lot in my opinion. Once a storm has formed there's no evidence that the inflow off of SA does anything.

Is the low level easterly jet over the central & eastern Caribbean Sea which creates surface divergence, nothing to do with the downslopping winds off of the Mountains, IMO.

I disagree with this. Because it was formed already those things had less impact. Very rarely if ever will a system form in that area, I believe due to those down sloping winds. Maybe an expert can chime in but in my many years of watching these things, the South American affect is real in newly developing systems.

[abajan]

Lets see what happens on it's approach to Jamaica....that Island has a way of screwing with a storm's mind. Ivan was progged to run right over it.... only to have him stop and dance around it. Granted it was more of a east/west path, but we will see.

Yes, it bounced off the southern coast..hurricanes dont like land

Gilbert certainly didn't bounce off of them.

[tolakram]

For those wondering about some of the wind images, visit this page and have fun.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-70.36,12.31,3000/loc=-72.448,7.228

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has closed in to Matthew's SW.
Right where Matthew will track into.
And, it will likely slow down enough to get a good stack.

Looking at this a little more without the magnifying glass, its actually nearly centered in a bigger anti-cyclone.

No wonder the RI.

[jlauderdal]

Lets see what happens on it's approach to Jamaica....that Island has a way of screwing with a storm's mind. Ivan was progged to run right over it.... only to have him stop and dance around it. Granted it was more of a east/west path, but we will see.

Yes, it bounced off the southern coast..hurricanes dont like land

Gilbert certainly didn't bounce off of them.

correct...how are recovery efforts going on barbados?