ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

From the map and the observations cyclone posted, it looks like the llc is finally settling in.

[abajan]

It is time to call Dr. McCoy in for 99L. 99L looks dead nothing more than a rain maker of anything. Just an opinion.

But a rain maker can be a lot, as those in Louisiana can attest.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that shear will be high for invest 99L and will make invest 99L go poof.

[CourierPR]

Does anyone think that shear will be high for invest 99L and will make invest 99L go poof.

No.

[AutoPenalti]

Does anyone think that shear will be high for invest 99L and will make invest 99L go poof.

Shear is minimal at best.

[adam0983]

What are the effects for south Florida right now. Should I have my shutters on standby.

[Evil Jeremy]

What are the effects for south Florida right now. Should I have my shutters on standby.

During Hurricane season it's a good idea to always have them on standby. As for putting them up, or other intense preparations, I would wait another day or so to see how this situation plays out.

[adam0983]

should be interesting say. If anybody was a betting man do you think we at least have a tropical storm in south Florida

[caneseddy]

The same upper low that may kill Gaston may be what allows this to intensify

It is proping up the upper ridge. The band of shear is already lifting to the north. If this upper ridge props up, it will blow the MU forecast to shreds.

Yes, there could be an upper low, but it could be split to the SW of the system, a very dangerous place for it to be

Great post I have been looking at that. CIMMS if you back out the hrs you can see exactly that happening the ULL north is weakining and splitting off with energy to the SW very possibly dangerous evolution going on.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

blp, when will we know this happens? Seems like you guys are keying in on something important that I've never heard of before.

If that evolution that Alyono and blp are talking about materializes, then we can be looking at something more than just a weak TS heading towards the US...the same evolution occurred with a storm that everyone down here in South Florida knows about and which today is the 24th anniversary of...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

"Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified."

Now I'm not saying that this is what will happen but the scenario depicted by Alyono and blp is eerily similiar

Just an opinion; consult NHC and other weather agencies

[tropicwatch]

I think the most recent upper level wind shear map is a little off. It is showing 45-50kts just north of Puerto Rico. With that high of wind shear I wouldn't think the convection north of Puerto Rico could build like it is doing now.

[centuryv58]

should be interesting say. If anybody was a betting man do you think we at least have a tropical storm in south Florida

You should ask a blogger here named "Hammy." She takes all the bets for Storm2K

[TheStormExpert]

Has the G-IV synoptic flight flown yet?

[Aric Dunn]

Sw and westerly inflow still slowly increasing and convection is responding right on que

[AutoPenalti]

I think the most recent upper level wind shear map is a little off. It is showing 45-50kts just north of Puerto Rico. With that high of wind shear I wouldn't think the convection north of Puerto Rico could build like it is doing now.

I agree also, convection is slowly increasing and normally with that amount of shear it should be blowing off.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the most recent upper level wind shear map is a little off. It is showing 45-50kts just north of Puerto Rico. With that high of wind shear I wouldn't think the convection north of Puerto Rico could build like it is doing now.

I agree also, convection is slowly increasing and normally with that amount of shear it should be blowing off.

its because its not mid or upper level winds that are causing the shear. it is the low level flow and the speed of it combined with some upper level winds. shear is shear of course .. but you can kind of say this is self induced..

[cycloneye]

Has the G-IV synoptic flight flown yet?

NOAA plane doing research departs on Thursday August 25 at 2 AM EDT.

NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL BEGIN RESEARCH MISSIONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS BEGINNING 25/0600Z

[Javlin]

After two days of being badly stretched out and elongated, It's starting to look much better to me. Check out that inflow tail wrapping around from the southwest! I'm interested in seeing if it successfully completes this process and develops another vigorous cyclonic envelop over the Bahamas? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

MIMIC almost says extreme S Florida or the straits/Keys?Look a coupe degrees forward and the old front to the N the keys are a funnel for maybe the next 24hrs?

[Aric Dunn]

llc has turned nearly due west and is straight north of the eastern tip of HR.

[RL3AO]

The same upper low that may kill Gaston may be what allows this to intensify

It is proping up the upper ridge. The band of shear is already lifting to the north. If this upper ridge props up, it will blow the MU forecast to shreds.

Yes, there could be an upper low, but it could be split to the SW of the system, a very dangerous place for it to be

To clarify you're thinking with the UL digging west of Gaston, that the ridge near 99L can build further north? GFS keeps the ridge over the northern Caribbean which would put upper level westerlies over 99L and likely kill it. However, a more northern ridge like the ECMWF shows would put upper level easterlies over 99L and therefore light shear.

Am I following your logic here?

[gatorcane]

Hot tower alert (yellow shading in the convection burst):