ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[La Sirena]

looks to be dropping quite a be SW looking at the radar.

A bit more than models predicted, right?

Sorry, I have so many tabs open I can't keep up anymore lol!

[bqknight]

It looks to me that is going to get real close to the northern tip of Colombia.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... lrcl4c.gif

What is the link to this radar site?

I'm away from my laptop where I have the link to it.

Found it: http://www.meteo.cw/rad_loop_ppi.php?La ... CC&Sws=R11

[Dave C]

Seems to drop sw sharply from point to point, maybe due to strong t storms in 1 quadrant affecting direction of movement?

[GCANE]

A blast from the past:

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Eyewall is contracting rather rapidly. Pinhole?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... lay48.html

Sure looks like it. The eye is starting to clear out so we'll get a better idea soon.

[Aric Dunn]

is there another synoptic flight today ?

[OntarioEggplant]

Wow this is already almost a major hurricane. This is developing into a possible horrific catastrophe for Jamaica.

[northjaxpro]

Matthew definitely moving more south of west now.

Looking really impressive currently. Frightening just how strong this cyclone may get even before its approach to Jamaica.

[JaxGator]

So, would the trough in the east pull it up the EC and/or OTS?

That's Joe's thinking but he also said it wasn't a done deal yet. The UKMET still has the trough weak and Matthew plowing into Florida. East Coast not in the clear yet but there is the chance for an escape route.

NASA model still seems to keep it worst case scenario, don't know how reliable it is though. People around this board said that it forecasted Sandy correctly.

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_w ... 00&&loop=1

EDIT: DO NOT click on it directly, copy and paste into your browser.

Thank you. Don't know much about its history but it's ominous that it and UKMET show a similar set-up. Don't want that monster coming anywhere near here.

[BRweather]

important to notice that as soon as recon left the eyewall going northwest, that dry air is right around the core. Will be interesting to see if that dry air makes its way in.

You can see the slot on visible that dry air from south american has made its way through the circulation.

[JaxGator]

Seems to have filled in some on the latest frames.

[GCANE]

Going parabolic on AMSU intensity estimates.

[KWT]

Eyewall is contracting rather rapidly. Pinhole?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... lay48.html

Sure looks like it. The eye is starting to clear out so we'll get a better idea soon.

That is one of the more impressive developments, its wrapped itself up very quickly and rapidly deepened for sure!

[AutoPenalti]

How strong does a TC have to be for it to verify with BAMS?

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that recon found the strongest winds so far to the NW of the eye.

[GCANE]

[chaser1]

That's Joe's thinking but he also said it wasn't a done deal yet. The UKMET still has the trough weak and Matthew plowing into Florida. East Coast not in the clear yet but there is the chance for an escape route.

NASA model still seems to keep it worst case scenario, don't know how reliable it is though. People around this board said that it forecasted Sandy correctly.

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=&model_old=ncepgfs&level_old=&tau_old=000&&loop=1

EDIT: DO NOT click on it directly, copy and paste into your browser.

Thank you. Don't know much about its history but it's ominous that it and UKMET show a similar set-up. Don't want that monster coming anywhere near here.

Tried copy/pasting NASA site but still not working. Anyone have a working link?

[GCANE]

Latest from Dr Knabb:
https://www.periscope.tv/NWSNHC/1MnGnnpejjjGO

Lots of uncertainty.

[tolakram]

Tried copy/pasting NASA site but still not working. Anyone have a working link?

I edited the post to show the entire link. It doesn't like the referrer so even if you click all you have to do is press return up in the address bar and it will load. Silly restriction.

[hurricanehunter69]

Current position already appears to be considerably south of NHC's track forecast. I have to believe at least Tropical storm warnings should go up for SA coast. Also possible future track implications?