ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

looks to be a closed circulation

I can see the circulation well on visible. It looks less organized than yesterday though but could be my untrained eyes telling me that. Not sure why NHC upped the percentages but they will surely be right. Just wondering what they see. I thought this storm was going to be more organized by now than it is.

Also, there is what appears to be a spin right on top of the Bahama islands. It is at 24N and 75W but I could be wrong.

That other spin is an ULL I believe

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Here is Friday May 27 POD for missions on Saturday and Sunday.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 27 MAY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z MAY 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-002

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA....NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
       FIGHT ONE - TEAL 73           FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 28/2330Z                   A. 29/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 28/2045Z                   C. 29/0915Z
       D. 29.9N 76.8W                D. 31.2N 78.5W
       E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0330Z       E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1630Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.


[cycloneye]

Plane departed Keesler base.

URNT15 KNHC 271459
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 04 20160527
145030 3025N 08840W 6522 03741 0120 +051 -039 228009 009 /// /// 03
145100 3025N 08838W 6354 03952 0124 +034 -043 233010 012 /// /// 03
145130 3025N 08836W 6196 04157 0131 +020 -080 231013 014 /// /// 03
145200 3026N 08834W 6035 04370 0133 +005 -104 228012 013 /// /// 03
145230 3027N 08832W 5892 04561 0141 -011 -106 226013 013 /// /// 03
145300 3027N 08830W 5763 04739 0134 -020 -071 239013 015 /// /// 03
145330 3028N 08828W 5616 04944 0118 -026 -057 266012 013 /// /// 03
145400 3029N 08826W 5498 05113 0246 -038 -069 274015 016 /// /// 03
145430 3030N 08824W 5391 05278 0258 -045 -084 273018 018 /// /// 03
145500 3031N 08822W 5281 05431 0263 -056 -089 278018 018 /// /// 03
145530 3032N 08820W 5166 05604 0271 -069 -097 283019 020 /// /// 03
145600 3032N 08818W 5059 05765 0279 -081 -104 288020 021 /// /// 03
145630 3033N 08816W 4949 05936 0288 -095 -104 294019 019 /// /// 03
145700 3034N 08814W 4854 06093 0300 -101 -124 278016 018 /// /// 03
145730 3035N 08811W 4784 06206 0308 -110 -128 271017 017 /// /// 03
145800 3036N 08809W 4712 06321 0314 -117 -137 261016 018 /// /// 03
145830 3037N 08807W 4645 06432 0318 -125 -141 253013 014 /// /// 03
145900 3038N 08805W 4556 06574 0322 -136 -142 250012 013 /// /// 03
145930 3039N 08803W 4464 06729 0329 -148 -150 256013 013 /// /// 03
150000 3039N 08800W 4373 06885 0338 -152 -168 267010 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271509
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 05 20160527
150030 3040N 08758W 4315 06994 0349 -155 -174 256012 012 /// /// 03
150100 3041N 08756W 4256 07097 0354 -158 -184 251012 013 /// /// 03
150130 3042N 08754W 4192 07212 0361 -161 -199 247012 013 /// /// 03
150200 3043N 08752W 4140 07305 0366 -170 -202 251013 013 /// /// 03
150230 3044N 08750W 4093 07392 0371 -178 -198 249015 016 /// /// 03
150300 3045N 08748W 4064 07444 0372 -185 -196 249016 016 /// /// 03
150330 3046N 08745W 4025 07513 0375 -191 -201 252016 017 /// /// 03
150400 3046N 08743W 3960 07636 0381 -196 -212 252019 020 /// /// 03
150430 3046N 08740W 3903 07745 0388 -204 -221 254014 017 /// /// 03
150500 3046N 08738W 3868 07811 0391 -212 -223 260014 014 /// /// 03
150530 3046N 08735W 3829 07886 0395 -220 -223 260018 019 /// /// 03
150600 3047N 08733W 3794 07953 0398 -226 //// 262019 019 /// /// 05
150630 3047N 08730W 3761 08020 0402 -225 -250 249019 020 /// /// 03
150700 3047N 08728W 3758 08026 0403 -225 -255 249019 020 /// /// 03
150730 3047N 08725W 3759 08021 0402 -225 -257 248018 019 /// /// 03
150800 3047N 08722W 3757 08025 0401 -227 -259 247018 019 /// /// 03
150830 3047N 08719W 3758 08025 0401 -229 -260 246016 017 /// /// 03
150900 3048N 08716W 3758 08022 0401 -226 -267 245016 017 /// /// 03
150930 3048N 08713W 3761 08017 0400 -228 -274 245015 016 /// /// 03
151000 3048N 08710W 3761 08018 0400 -230 -270 249016 017 /// /// 03

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271519
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 06 20160527
151030 3048N 08707W 3759 08021 0399 -230 -280 247016 017 /// /// 03
151100 3048N 08704W 3759 08020 0400 -229 -298 243014 016 /// /// 03
151130 3048N 08701W 3763 08014 0400 -231 -298 227007 012 /// /// 03
151200 3049N 08658W 3756 08026 0400 -232 -300 232007 008 /// /// 03
151230 3049N 08655W 3761 08016 0398 -231 -292 237007 008 /// /// 03
151300 3049N 08652W 3759 08018 0398 -230 -271 241006 007 /// /// 03
151330 3049N 08649W 3758 08018 0398 -230 -260 248005 005 /// /// 03
151400 3049N 08646W 3759 08018 0398 -229 -281 251005 006 /// /// 03
151430 3049N 08643W 3759 08017 0398 -230 -268 262003 004 /// /// 03
151500 3050N 08640W 3758 08018 0398 -229 -269 276003 003 /// /// 03
151530 3049N 08637W 3758 08020 0398 -225 -296 277004 004 /// /// 03
151600 3049N 08634W 3759 08016 0397 -224 -301 285004 005 /// /// 03
151630 3049N 08631W 3761 08014 0397 -225 -306 299004 004 /// /// 03
151700 3049N 08628W 3758 08018 0397 -225 -298 294005 005 /// /// 03
151730 3049N 08626W 3759 08017 0397 -225 -290 302005 005 /// /// 03
151800 3049N 08623W 3758 08020 0397 -222 -304 306005 006 /// /// 03
151830 3049N 08620W 3759 08017 0397 -222 -330 311006 007 /// /// 03
151900 3049N 08617W 3759 08015 0396 -220 -330 338004 005 /// /// 03
151930 3049N 08614W 3761 08012 0395 -220 -340 351005 005 /// /// 03
152000 3049N 08611W 3758 08017 0395 -220 -355 346005 005 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271529
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 07 20160527
152030 3049N 08608W 3759 08016 0396 -216 -344 327006 006 /// /// 03
152100 3049N 08605W 3761 08012 0396 -215 -331 331006 007 /// /// 03
152130 3049N 08602W 3758 08018 0397 -215 -337 326007 007 /// /// 03
152200 3049N 08559W 3759 08015 0397 -214 -340 339008 008 /// /// 03
152230 3049N 08556W 3759 08017 0397 -212 -346 350008 008 /// /// 03
152300 3049N 08553W 3759 08016 0396 -210 -358 359010 010 /// /// 03
152330 3049N 08550W 3759 08014 0395 -210 -370 359010 011 /// /// 03
152400 3048N 08547W 3758 08017 0394 -211 -352 351011 012 /// /// 03
152430 3048N 08544W 3759 08012 0393 -213 -325 348011 012 /// /// 03
152500 3048N 08542W 3759 08012 0393 -218 -363 350011 011 /// /// 03
152530 3048N 08539W 3758 08014 0392 -218 -367 349012 013 /// /// 03
152600 3048N 08536W 3759 08012 0392 -217 -367 349013 014 /// /// 03
152630 3048N 08533W 3761 08010 0392 -222 -368 351012 013 /// /// 03
152700 3048N 08530W 3759 08011 0392 -224 -361 351012 013 /// /// 03
152730 3048N 08527W 3758 08012 0391 -222 -366 346013 014 /// /// 03
152800 3048N 08524W 3761 08009 0391 -221 -377 343013 014 /// /// 03
152830 3048N 08521W 3758 08012 0391 -220 -387 342014 014 /// /// 03
152900 3048N 08518W 3758 08011 0390 -220 -393 336015 015 /// /// 03
152930 3048N 08515W 3759 08009 0390 -219 -397 352015 016 /// /// 03
153000 3048N 08512W 3758 08010 0389 -220 -401 009016 017 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271539
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 08 20160527
153030 3048N 08509W 3759 08008 0388 -220 -404 009017 017 /// /// 03
153100 3047N 08506W 3758 08009 0388 -220 -407 007017 017 /// /// 03
153130 3046N 08504W 3759 08006 0387 -220 -409 008017 018 /// /// 03
153200 3045N 08501W 3759 08008 0387 -221 -411 008018 018 /// /// 03
153230 3044N 08458W 3759 08008 0388 -220 -413 008018 018 /// /// 03
153300 3044N 08455W 3759 08007 0387 -221 -416 007018 018 /// /// 03
153330 3043N 08453W 3758 08007 0387 -224 -417 004017 018 /// /// 03
153400 3042N 08450W 3759 08007 0387 -225 -419 001017 017 /// /// 03
153430 3041N 08447W 3759 08006 0387 -225 -421 355016 016 /// /// 03
153500 3040N 08444W 3759 08007 0387 -226 -422 348017 017 /// /// 03
153530 3039N 08441W 3758 08009 0387 -227 -424 345016 017 /// /// 03
153600 3038N 08439W 3759 08005 0387 -225 -426 352017 017 /// /// 03
153630 3038N 08436W 3759 08006 0386 -226 -426 356016 016 /// /// 03
153700 3037N 08433W 3759 08007 0387 -225 -427 002016 016 /// /// 03
153730 3036N 08430W 3758 08009 0388 -225 -427 005014 016 /// /// 03
153800 3035N 08427W 3758 08009 0388 -226 -418 014013 014 /// /// 03
153830 3034N 08425W 3766 07999 0392 -223 -401 010013 014 /// /// 03
153900 3033N 08422W 3765 08002 0389 -222 -393 010013 014 /// /// 03
153930 3033N 08419W 3769 07994 0391 -220 -394 007011 013 /// /// 03
154000 3033N 08416W 3759 08005 0386 -224 -399 016011 011 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271549
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 09 20160527
154030 3033N 08413W 3758 08007 0386 -225 -403 015012 012 /// /// 03
154100 3033N 08411W 3758 08006 0386 -226 -408 017010 012 /// /// 03
154130 3033N 08408W 3759 08006 0387 -229 -414 019007 009 /// /// 03
154200 3033N 08405W 3758 08009 0386 -230 -421 003006 007 /// /// 03
154230 3033N 08402W 3759 08004 0386 -230 -425 351005 005 /// /// 03
154300 3033N 08359W 3759 08006 0386 -229 -428 347005 006 /// /// 03
154330 3033N 08356W 3759 08005 0385 -225 -430 347007 007 /// /// 03
154400 3033N 08353W 3759 08005 0385 -225 -431 005007 009 /// /// 03
154430 3033N 08350W 3761 08003 0385 -225 -433 010007 009 /// /// 03
154500 3032N 08347W 3758 08005 0384 -225 -435 023005 007 /// /// 03
154530 3032N 08344W 3758 08006 0384 -224 -436 070005 006 /// /// 03
154600 3032N 08342W 3759 08003 0383 -222 -437 079005 005 /// /// 03
154630 3032N 08339W 3758 08004 0383 -225 -437 076005 006 /// /// 03
154700 3032N 08336W 3759 08004 0383 -226 -438 078005 006 /// /// 03
154730 3032N 08333W 3758 08005 0382 -230 -439 095004 006 /// /// 03
154800 3032N 08330W 3760 08000 0382 -225 -435 128006 007 /// /// 03
154830 3032N 08327W 3759 08003 0382 -225 -429 134007 008 /// /// 03
154900 3032N 08324W 3759 08003 0383 -226 -423 130008 008 /// /// 03
154930 3032N 08322W 3758 08003 0382 -225 -420 132007 008 /// /// 03
155000 3032N 08319W 3758 08004 0382 -225 -421 137006 006 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271559
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 10 20160527
155030 3032N 08316W 3759 08001 0383 -225 -420 127006 006 /// /// 03
155100 3032N 08313W 3759 08003 0382 -225 -418 126006 006 /// /// 03
155130 3031N 08310W 3760 08000 0382 -223 -415 114006 007 /// /// 03
155200 3031N 08307W 3758 08004 0382 -225 -415 121005 006 /// /// 03
155230 3031N 08305W 3758 08004 0383 -228 -421 126004 004 /// /// 03
155300 3031N 08302W 3758 08002 0382 -225 -427 119004 004 /// /// 03
155330 3031N 08259W 3761 07999 0381 -225 -431 108006 007 /// /// 03
155400 3031N 08256W 3758 08000 0379 -229 -434 105006 007 /// /// 03
155430 3031N 08253W 3759 07998 0379 -228 -438 094008 009 /// /// 03
155500 3031N 08250W 3758 08000 0379 -225 -440 086008 009 /// /// 03
155530 3031N 08247W 3759 07999 0380 -225 -440 086007 007 /// /// 03
155600 3031N 08245W 3759 08000 0380 -230 -440 093007 007 /// /// 03
155630 3031N 08242W 3758 08001 0381 -230 -444 094007 008 /// /// 03
155700 3030N 08239W 3759 08000 0381 -231 -444 097009 009 /// /// 03
155730 3030N 08236W 3759 08001 0381 -235 -444 096008 008 /// /// 03
155800 3030N 08233W 3759 08001 0381 -237 -445 102009 009 /// /// 03
155830 3030N 08231W 3758 08002 0381 -240 -446 107010 010 /// /// 03
155900 3030N 08228W 3759 08000 0381 -241 -447 100008 009 /// /// 03
155930 3030N 08225W 3759 08001 0381 -241 -447 111007 007 /// /// 03
160000 3030N 08222W 3759 08001 0381 -242 -448 113008 008 /// /// 03
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

The circulation appears closed, but I think it's still elongated to the SW. Also, the convective pattern doesn't seem to be very organized, so classification as a TC at this time would be questionable, imo.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271609
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 11 20160527
160030 3030N 08219W 3759 08000 0381 -242 -449 114008 009 /// /// 03
160100 3029N 08216W 3759 08000 0380 -240 -449 116011 011 /// /// 03
160130 3029N 08214W 3760 07996 0379 -240 -450 118013 014 /// /// 03
160200 3029N 08211W 3759 07996 0377 -240 -451 115015 016 /// /// 03
160230 3029N 08208W 3759 07995 0375 -240 -451 116015 015 /// /// 03
160300 3029N 08206W 3759 07994 0375 -240 -450 117015 016 /// /// 03
160330 3029N 08203W 3759 07992 0373 -240 -451 114015 016 /// /// 03
160400 3029N 08200W 3759 07993 0373 -240 -451 112016 016 /// /// 03
160430 3028N 08157W 3758 07995 0373 -240 -451 109016 016 /// /// 03
160500 3028N 08155W 3758 07998 0374 -241 -451 107014 015 /// /// 03
160530 3028N 08152W 3759 07994 0375 -240 -453 110014 015 /// /// 03
160600 3028N 08149W 3758 07996 0375 -240 -454 116014 014 /// /// 03
160630 3028N 08146W 3759 07996 0376 -240 -454 117013 014 /// /// 03
160700 3028N 08143W 3759 07996 0376 -238 -455 117012 013 /// /// 03
160730 3028N 08141W 3761 07993 0375 -235 -455 113011 012 /// /// 03
160800 3028N 08138W 3758 07996 0375 -236 -454 118012 013 /// /// 03
160830 3028N 08135W 3758 07996 0375 -240 -453 114014 015 /// /// 03
160900 3028N 08132W 3758 07995 0373 -240 -453 113015 016 /// /// 03
160930 3028N 08130W 3759 07993 0373 -235 -452 110015 015 /// /// 03
161000 3028N 08127W 3759 07993 0373 -238 -452 110015 015 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271619
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 12 20160527
161030 3027N 08124W 3759 07993 0373 -244 -449 109014 015 /// /// 03
161100 3027N 08124W 3759 07993 0373 -245 -447 106014 015 /// /// 03
161130 3027N 08119W 3758 07995 0373 -245 -449 103015 016 /// /// 03
161200 3027N 08116W 3758 07994 0373 -245 -448 104015 016 /// /// 03
161230 3027N 08113W 3759 07993 0373 -245 -447 099014 015 /// /// 03
161300 3027N 08110W 3758 07994 0373 -245 -450 099014 014 014 000 03
161330 3027N 08108W 3761 07990 0373 -245 -450 102015 015 015 000 00
161400 3027N 08105W 3758 07994 0373 -245 -448 101016 016 016 000 03
161430 3027N 08102W 3759 07992 0373 -245 -448 098015 016 017 000 00
161500 3027N 08059W 3759 07993 0373 -245 -449 099014 015 016 000 00
161530 3027N 08057W 3759 07993 0373 -245 -450 103014 015 016 000 00
161600 3027N 08054W 3758 07996 0373 -244 -450 105014 015 016 000 00
161630 3027N 08051W 3761 07990 0372 -240 -436 108015 016 016 000 00
161700 3027N 08048W 3759 07989 0371 -241 -415 106015 015 018 000 00
161730 3027N 08046W 3759 07992 0371 -241 -410 104015 016 019 000 00
161800 3027N 08043W 3758 07993 0372 -243 -412 097014 015 021 000 03
161830 3027N 08040W 3759 07990 0371 -243 -420 101013 014 020 000 00
161900 3027N 08037W 3759 07990 0371 -242 -424 104012 013 020 000 00
161930 3027N 08034W 3759 07990 0371 -240 -417 105012 013 020 000 00
162000 3027N 08032W 3758 07993 0371 -243 -409 102011 012 020 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[tropicwatch]

Looks like convection is starting to build on the west side of the circulation.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like convection is starting to build on the west side of the circulation.

Yeah but it still looks like poo poo overall. System just doesn't want to get its act together.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271629
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 13 20160527
162030 3027N 08029W 3758 07993 0372 -244 -409 097012 012 020 000 03
162100 3027N 08026W 3761 07990 0372 -245 -410 097012 012 021 000 03
162130 3027N 08023W 3759 07990 0371 -246 -417 087014 014 021 000 00
162200 3027N 08021W 3758 07994 0371 -245 -431 088013 014 022 000 03
162230 3027N 08018W 3760 07989 0371 -245 -440 095012 013 021 000 00
162300 3027N 08015W 3759 07989 0371 -245 -443 097013 013 021 000 00
162330 3026N 08012W 3758 07992 0371 -245 -432 095013 013 022 000 03
162400 3026N 08010W 3759 07990 0370 -246 -390 102010 012 024 000 00
162430 3026N 08007W 3759 07990 0370 -250 -384 106008 009 027 000 00
162500 3026N 08004W 3759 07989 0370 -250 -421 110007 007 028 000 00
162530 3026N 08001W 3760 07992 0372 -250 -429 098010 011 028 000 00
162600 3026N 07958W 3759 07995 0375 -248 -367 086012 013 028 000 00
162630 3026N 07956W 3758 07996 0376 -246 -343 081010 012 028 000 00
162700 3026N 07953W 3759 07996 0377 -251 -361 079009 010 027 000 00
162730 3026N 07950W 3759 07996 0377 -252 -388 075008 009 026 001 00
162800 3026N 07947W 3759 07998 0377 -250 -387 070010 011 024 000 00
162830 3026N 07944W 3759 07996 0377 -250 -374 069013 013 025 000 00
162900 3026N 07942W 3758 07998 0376 -250 -412 071014 014 024 000 00
162930 3026N 07939W 3758 07998 0376 -251 -333 072014 014 024 000 03
163000 3026N 07936W 3761 07993 0375 -250 -376 072016 017 025 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271639
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 14 20160527
163030 3026N 07933W 3758 07996 0374 -248 -390 068016 017 026 000 03
163100 3026N 07931W 3759 07992 0373 -247 -369 070016 017 027 000 00
163130 3026N 07928W 3759 07993 0374 -245 -305 080017 018 028 000 00
163200 3026N 07925W 3759 07994 0374 -245 -279 095018 019 026 000 00
163230 3026N 07922W 3758 07995 0374 -245 -290 099016 017 025 000 00
163300 3026N 07920W 3759 07994 0374 -250 -279 094016 017 025 000 00
163330 3026N 07917W 3759 07994 0374 -250 -267 101017 018 025 000 00
163400 3026N 07914W 3759 07994 0374 -250 -270 108018 018 024 000 00
163430 3026N 07912W 3759 07994 0375 -250 -283 115018 018 023 000 00
163500 3026N 07909W 3759 07995 0375 -250 -277 111018 018 023 000 00
163530 3025N 07906W 3759 07994 0375 -250 -276 111020 021 023 000 00
163600 3025N 07903W 3758 07995 0374 -250 -276 112020 021 023 000 00
163630 3025N 07901W 3759 07995 0375 -250 -273 109018 019 023 000 03
163700 3025N 07858W 3759 07995 0376 -250 -269 105016 017 023 000 00
163730 3025N 07855W 3759 07996 0377 -250 -275 103013 015 022 000 00
163800 3025N 07852W 3759 07996 0377 -250 -287 107012 013 021 000 00
163830 3025N 07850W 3758 07999 0377 -250 -285 108013 013 021 000 03
163900 3025N 07847W 3759 07996 0376 -249 -278 106014 014 021 000 00
163930 3025N 07844W 3759 07995 0376 -247 -286 108014 015 021 000 00
164000 3025N 07841W 3759 07996 0376 -246 -290 110014 014 020 000 03
$$

[Steve]

Run the visible loop (recommend animated gif). You can't use high cloud tops off the infrared only and say it looks bad when it's only an invest (though it could be an STD at this point). It's probably going to pulse a bit until it gets closer to the coast. Because of the cold upper conditions, I'm not sure it's going to get categorized as tropical or subtropical. It kind of depends, but the tightness on the models near the coast leads me to believe it will possibly be tropical nearing landfall in a few days. Give it time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html