ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759399363177316356

[lordkev]

More passing lines of showers continue to spread on us. Seems that it's only a first round because of the most of the heavy patches of showers tstorms are scheluded for tonight and especially tommorow. Healthy 97L is approaching Guadeloupe, be sure about that. I will keep your informed as usual.
Gustywind.

Yes, we've been getting them up here in St Kitts as well. Calm now, but rained a good deal earlier.

[abajan]

More passing lines of showers continue to spread on us. Seems that it's only a first round because of the most of the heavy patches of showers tstorms are scheluded for tonight and especially tommorow. Healthy 97L is approaching Guadeloupe, be sure about that. I will keep your informed as usual.
Gustywind.

Thanks for the updates, Gusty! Much appreciated.

[Siker]

12z GFS is the most organized it's been so far:

[hurricanes1234]

SHIPS finally sees the good UL environment on top of 97L to go along with it as it tracks westward across the Caribbean.

Code: Select all

* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL972016  07/30/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    33    37    46    52    59    65    76    85    94    99
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    33    37    46    44    48    56    68    76    52    35
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    28    31    33    39    37    44    46    54    62    46    33
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     2     4     8    13    11    12    11    11     2     5     9    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     0    -4    -3    -1    -1    -2     0     0     1     0    -6    -5
SHEAR DIR         48    59   232   274   315   293   282   271   292   199    53    67    50
SST (C)         27.6  27.9  28.3  28.4  28.7  28.8  28.8  29.5  29.5  29.6  29.7  30.1  30.2
POT. INT. (KT)   137   141   146   147   152   153   153   164   163   164   165   170   170
ADJ. POT. INT.   147   151   157   157   163   163   161   171   168   164   162   164   163
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.3   0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    10    11    11    12    12    13    12    11     8    10     7
700-500 MB RH     57    56    55    55    57    60    60    64    64    74    74    80    81
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     8     8     8    10    10     7     6     6    10    10    10     9
850 MB ENV VOR    70    68    64    53    47    60    60    71    60    91    69    81    61
200 MB DIV        32    39    17    22     6    38     8    31     4    52    27    72    64
700-850 TADV       8     4     5     4     1    -5    -4    -3   -12    -3    -4     0    -2
LAND (KM)       1021   884   714   616   488    48     0    -2   257   146    29   -39  -118
LAT (DEG N)     14.5  14.9  15.5  16.0  16.5  17.5  18.1  18.2  17.8  17.1  16.0  15.3  15.1
LONG(DEG W)     51.3  54.0  56.5  59.0  61.5  66.6  71.8  76.5  80.7  84.0  86.6  88.4  89.6
STM SPEED (KT)    26    26    25    25    25    25    24    21    19    15    11     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      36    55    33    43    11    88    21    28    81    42    30    89    79

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 25      CX,CY: -24/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  494  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  27.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  45.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            6.3


Wow! Look at that intensity forecast!

This is getting quite scary in my opinion. I'll definitely be keeping my eyes peeled on this system.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759417375913631744

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759417375913631744

So, into Central America?

[caribepr]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph. While the associated shower
activity has increased since yesterday, any additional development
should be slow to occur due to the rapid motion of the system.
Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea beginning later today.
By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the
western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent



$$
Forecaster Beven

Sounds like I don't have to put out the alarms for the houseboat?

[Siker]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ridge not as strong?

[Siker]

Ridge not as strong?

It seems about as strong as previously, but a stronger storm will push further north.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS trended north this run.

06z:


12z:

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ridge not as strong?

It seems about as strong as previously, but a stronger storm will push further north.

Trend is a stronger storm and I personally do not see that stopping unless shear or dry air can get to it. Record warm waters and good UL conditions is scary.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CMC does not develop this but does take whatever is left of this into Texas.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph. While the associated shower
activity has increased since yesterday, any additional development
should be slow to occur due to the rapid motion of the system.
Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea beginning later today.
By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the
western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent



$$
Forecaster Beven

Sounds like I don't have to put out the alarms for the houseboat?

Hey Mj,long time not seeing you around.We may have some squally weather with heavy showers with gusty winds but nothing more at this time.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/759426694595874816

[PTrackerLA]

Starting to look like the typical cross Yucatan and straight across the BOC into Mexico track we have seen so many times over the past 10 years. Ridge looks firmly entrenched over the northern Gulf coast.

[stormlover2013]

Will keep changing all I know is seems like the gulf is prime and ready

[tailgater]

Looks like its getting it act together a bit now, as they often do before the islands. But most models don't develop it yet if at all until it reaches near Jamaica.
Floater
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-long.html

[gatorcane]

I agree looks quite good at the moment with cyclonic turning more pronounced, maybe some signs of banding?