EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[NDG]

Already some flooding across eastern Costa Rica.



Link: https://youtu.be/WV2a013hnK0

[Alyono]

Costa Rica typically has major flooding and high death tolls from TCs that pass to the north. Not sure what is going to happen with a landfall of a strong hurricane

[Cunxi Huang]

Tropical Storm Otto, 22/1215Z GOES-13 RGB

[txwatcher91]

Classic "fist" on visible and IR. Usually precedes RI or steady strengthening at least. Wouldn't be surprised to see this reach major hurricane status.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 79.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LIMON COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[1900hurricane]

The 18Z update in the working best track is now up to 65 kt.

[Alyono]

hearing that deaths may have occurred already in Panama

[Alyono]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/11 ... .html?_r=0

[Tireman4]

Canal Zone Webcams....

http://www.kroooz-cams.com/portcams/so_ ... gatun2.php

[Steve820]

... possibly the latest Atlantic storm I have ever tracked since I began tracking storms quite a long time ago. ...

When you were just 6 years old, the Atlantic had a record breaking hurricane season where storms kept forming all the way into late December. And all that seems like just the other day to me because I'm 52!

Yeah, I know that season. I actually remember hearing about Katrina, Rita, and Wilma on the TV news back then. But I began tracking storms in autumn 2010, which to me is quite a long time ago, since it is something like 1/4 of my total lifespan so far.

[Steve820]

Looks like Otto might be a destructive threat to Costa Rica in a couple days. It could also be the first Atl-EPac crossover storm I've ever tracked, unless for some reason it fails to survive the crossing. Since Otto has a couple days over water and it's strengthening quite quick, I actually wouldn't rule out a major, but that would worsen the threat to Costa Rica. Costa Rica is about to see their first hurricane landfall ever...

[EquusStorm]

65/984, so we have our 7th hurricane of the season... and with favorable conditions I wonder if we will also see our fourth major. There's never been a crossover that kept its name, not since the policy change on that, so could be a first. Also if it heads south of the center of the guidance it'd be by far the strongest Costa Rica hit ever and the first since 1887.

[Macrocane]

Being from Central America myself I would say that Costa Rica has the best emergency system of the region, that doesn't mean it's not going to get any damage but hopefully they will make preparations to avoid loss of life.

[Alyono]

Being from Central America myself I would say that Costa Rica has the best emergency system of the region, that doesn't mean it's not going to get any damage but hopefully they will make preparations to avoid loss of life.

Is Costa Rica very flood prone? I am wondering why the outer bands have caused so many deaths there in the past

[cycloneye]

...OTTO BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2016 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 79.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF LIMON COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Satellite images indicate that Otto is continuing to strengthen.
The overall satellite pattern has become more symmetric, with a
large mass of intense convection near the center. Dvorak intensity
estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and the wind speed is set to 65
kt, which makes Otto the seventh hurricane of the season. Otto
is the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea,
eclipsing the mark of Martha (1969) by about a day.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
strengthening, with warm water and weak-to-moderate southeasterly
shear during the next couple of days. Most of the guidance models
show Otto making landfall as a category 1 hurricane on Thursday and
so does the official forecast. Stronger shear, as well as land
interaction over central America, will probably prevent Otto from
restrengthening over the eastern Pacific.

Satellite fixes suggest that Otto has been drifting westward during
the day. A mid-level ridge is still forecast to build over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should cause Otto to
move slowly to the west or west-northwest. As the ridge builds, the
forward speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves
across the eastern Pacific and gradually loses latitude in that
basin. The most notable change is that the guidance has come into
better agreement on the track, although there are still some
significant speed differences. Overall, the guidance envelope has
shifted a bit to the north and is faster, and the official forecast
follows that trend.

A hurricane warning will likely be required tonight or early
tomorrow for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 10.5N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.6N 80.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.9N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 11.0N 82.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 11.0N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z 10.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/1800Z 9.8N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 9.5N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Pasch

[Sanibel]

2016: Odd Florida coast ripper and rare Gulf Of Panama hurricane. Late in the year too. Hurricanes rarely if never brush the north coast of Panama.


Guess the environment was there after all.

[Kazmit]

Wow, what a fantastic season. Another record breaking storm, but unfortunately it could have some widespread impacts across Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

[Macrocane]

Being from Central America myself I would say that Costa Rica has the best emergency system of the region, that doesn't mean it's not going to get any damage but hopefully they will make preparations to avoid loss of life.

Is Costa Rica very flood prone? I am wondering why the outer bands have caused so many deaths there in the past

Well, it's very mountainous and it has several rivers including urban rivers, but usually death tolls are lower than what we see in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua or Guatemala with similar systems, when in Costa Rica and Panamá there are dozens of fatalities in the neighbor countries there can be hundreds or even thousands. Hopefully they will manage it well, though they've never recived a direct impact so let's hope for the best.

[Alyono]

Being from Central America myself I would say that Costa Rica has the best emergency system of the region, that doesn't mean it's not going to get any damage but hopefully they will make preparations to avoid loss of life.

Is Costa Rica very flood prone? I am wondering why the outer bands have caused so many deaths there in the past

Well, it's very mountainous and it has several rivers including urban rivers, but usually death tolls are lower than what we see in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua or Guatemala with similar systems, when in Costa Rica and Panamá there are dozens of fatalities in the neighbor countries there can be hundreds or even thousands. Hopefully they will manage it well, though they've never recived a direct impact so let's hope for the best.

That's what I am worried about. It hasn't suffered a direct hit, nor has it had a Mitch-like event. However, Joan and Cesar were quite deadly there from the outer bands. The good news is, the main rainband has set up north of the system, so that will place it in Nicaragua, which is less mountainous than Costa Rica, which I saw has 12,500 foot mountain peaks

[Alyono]

preliminary recon data shows that this has not intensified at all and is probably not a hurricane