ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Happy Pelican]

After the Hermine fiasco, should Matthew head into the NE, I hope people take this seriously

[JaxGator]

Can any one remember such a deep carribean system getting plucked North like that?

Hazel is one example that have been compared to such a path, but in this case, Matthew is unique.

[caneseddy]

From the excerpt

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

[galaxy401]

NHC no longer has Matthew expecting to intensify.

[KWT]

Yep Matthew officially is a major hurricane, will be interesting to see if it weakens a little like some of the models suggest. As it is a cat-3 going into Jamaica or Cuba would be terrible, a 4/5 would be unthinkable.

[Michele B]

NHC no longer has Matthew expecting to intensify.

WHA?????????

[p1nheadlarry]

14-5-2

[Evil Jeremy]

The fact the NHC doesn't have Matthew strengthening at all over the next 72 hours is simply absurd.

[OntarioEggplant]

The overly conservative intensity forecasts by the NHC have been unacceptable. Even with plenty of data arguing that it would be stronger, they consistently go against it.

[KWT]

NHC no longer has Matthew expecting to intensify.

I think its quite obvious that is going to bust! Not sure what the logic is, the 'shear' (is it actually there?) hasn't stopped it from becoming a major so it can't be a big deal. Lad maybe a bigger issue if it continues to track to the south of the path.

They are great at what they do, but they've stayed behind the intensity curve thus far and I see few reasons for that to stop!

[gatorcane]

and can somebody confirm but stronger="more west" in this scenario right?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The fact the NHC doesn't have Matthew strengthening at all over the next 72 hours is simply absurd.

Dry air to the north will likely get entrained into Matthew in addition to persistent wind shear. I wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken below Cat 3 status later today.

[NotoSans]

Note that models actually show some WEAKENING within the next two days, followed by a period of re-intensification as Matthew turns north. However, as mentioned in the discussion, there are no significant changes to the environment that would induce such weakening. I guess the NHC is just doing some smoothing to the intensity forecast due to the large uncertainty.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear of 15-20 knots shouldn't be a big deal as long as the inner core remains intact.

[Evil Jeremy]

and can somebody confirm but stronger="more west" in this scenario right?

From yesterday:

and notice the stronger this is the farther west it goes

exactly what I said earlier. A STRONGER system will be the one moving farther to the west. A weaker one will move more to the east

[gatorcane]

Looks like we have an eye:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[JaxGator]

and can somebody confirm but stronger="more west" in this scenario right?

I think Alyono mentioned it yesterday (and Levi too I guess?).

[GCANE]

and can somebody confirm but stronger="more west" in this scenario right?

Flipping thru the current steering flows,
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

the way I read it, it looks like the stronger the TC the more southern component to the push but at a weaker level.
Kinda like it may crawl or stall especially if it gets less than 940mb.
Watching if a pinhole eye forms.

[GCANE]

Looks like we have an eye:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Looks like a bit south of the interpolated forecast track points to my eye.

[chaser1]

There's no question as I see it that any increased westward track would seemingly imply a greater threat to the CONUS as a whole. I think Gatorcane made a good point suggesting that perhaps a further westward position might simply cause a hurricane to then travel possibly NNE rather than an earlier due north turn possibly resulting in the same end result. That would make perfect sense as I see it, IF we were dealing with a steering mechanism as clear cut as a digging shortwave that is clearly reflected at the 500mb level. I think this scenario is different though and even though deep layer steering is not necessarily limited to 500mb winds, what I understand to be one of the steering mechanisms is a weakness in the Gulf (and then later in the forecast, a stronger large cut-off low); These features clearly show up at 200mb, and obviously extend somewhat lower in the atmosphere too but there's a pretty big difference between the extent of influence that an over-all weakness might have thus causing an impetus for a slow northward motion, verses the swift deep layer flow ahead of an advancing short wave. That's the primary reason that all along I've been wracking my brain to figure why nearly all the models have been so insistent on such an abrupt turn to the north, but even more doubtful that such a large and deep hurricane at a low latitude would be so quick to picked up by relative weak steering influences. It is entirely sensible that an eventual WNW to NW track would ensue as a large hurricane were to round the western edge of a weakening ridge to its north (which is in itself a little suspect) and slowly toward a weakness in the Gulf. Ordinarily though, that would be the ideal set up to anticipate a hurricane potentially into the Gulf as a result.

If Matthew should track as far south as 13N and reach 78W (or points west of there) than given the present steering mechanisms in place, I just would not think that a NNE motion would occur while moving through the Caribbean. I think the result could imply a lessened impact on Jamaica and a greater threat for Matthew to approach W. Cuba, and possibly Florida and raises the risk of a possible N. Gulf Coast risk as well. On the less radical swing of deviation though, I do think that an increased risk to Florida and potentially the Carolina's would result if a slightly further west (or WSW) motion continued a couple degrees further west than originally anticipated.