ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

This thing is a disorganized bucket of poo. It will do good to become a decent looking tropical wave, no wonder models are backing off on much development.

[BobHarlem]

my projection: A few people will call it gone early this afternoon, only for it to come back again overnight stronger than ever.

[SoupBone]

This is just an early morning hypothetical, not what I believe will happen. In other words, go easy.

If Hispaniola were to shred this lady into oblivion, and considering Ericka last year, would there be any fundamental changes in how forecasting models are used? Or do you believe any changes in the 7 day forecast, 5 day forecast, etc.? I know that Pro Mets are very careful and precise with their language, but the general public looks at things like the cone and single model runs, rather than taking a more cautious and long term look at how these systems are forecast. Just an early morning thought since not much else is going on.

[jlauderdal]

my projection: A few people will call it gone early this afternoon, only for it to come back again overnight stronger than ever.

seems reasonable considering it does well at night and it will be moving into a more favorable area for development

[adam0983]

Invest 99L looks like it is much better organized this morning the storm looks like a classic circle. Dr. Rick Knapp on the weather channel are saying the winds are at 45mph and pressure is at 1008mb this morning and they have a recon plane flying to 99L this morning. Based on satellite images and winds we have a tropical storm right now. If this is the case the Euro would be correct showing a strong tropical storm or hurricane hitting south Florida. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[stayawaynow]

One thing to watch out for is that 99L will be moving through the Bahama Islands which are flat and surrounded by very warm waters, forecasted by both the Euro and GFS to move very slowly starting tonight through Sunday night before reaching the Keys or SE FL coast. I estimated the forward speed at only 6.4 mph averaged in 3 days. Both the Euro and the latest GFS show it come to almost a crawl by Monday. All 99L has to do is find a sweet spot in the upper levels to strengthen fairly fast and we have seen this numerous times in this area before.

The model slow down after day 3 is really tricky as 99L nears SFL... I guess the GFS gets some props, it has not waivered from a slow down... Looks like TAFB has 99L moving NW towards Upper Keys, do you think a stronger system will get more poleward at that point??

the stronger systems tend to go poleward which is what made the gfs solution the last few days so troubling...weak system heading into a stout ridge albeit the gfs saw a weaker ridge than the euro but it was still a healthy ridge...track seems decent at this point...intensity completely different story, we could have a vigorous wave coming into the peninsula or a hurricane 1-2-3 who knows, there is plenty of potential but you dont take potential to the bank and right now one could say the system is weaker than 24 hours ago..saw people buying water and other supplies yesterday, thats a good thing because the florida hurricane season is just getting underway aug 15 to nov 1....i started the generator yesterday as did several others on the street...starting the generator to keep the hurricanes away has worked ever since Wilma so why stop now

side note: healthy train moving through palm beach county this morning on the easterly flow...been lightning in FLL since 3 am

another day of bantering of what might or might not be happening with this potential player

J

Thank you for starting the generator! Although I feel better when you have the "bears watching" avatar.

[AJC3]

Invest 99L looks like it is much better organized this morning the storm looks like a classic circle. Dr. Rick Knapp on the weather channel are saying the winds are at 45mph and pressure is at 1008mb this morning and they have a recon plane flying to 99L this morning. Based on satellite images and winds we have a tropical storm right now. If this is the case the Euro would be correct showing a strong tropical storm or hurricane hitting south Florida. Just an opinion not a forecast.

First light imagery clearly shows this is not the case. The low level center is exposed to the NW of the clusters of convection, roughly at 21.0N and 70.5W.

[SFLcane]

Disorganized YES do we have a closed LLC for classification is the question??

[ObsessedMiami]

Great, now we have to endure the race to be the guy who called Bones in today, only to see it come flying back in the Bahamas.

[HurriGuy]

I would expect once we get towards the middle of the day, this will look the worst it has ever looked. I think it needed to get convection over center during the night hours. But then again, it looks like the shear is not as bad.

[Frank P]

I bet we will see a naked swirl in the morning, convection north of Hispaniola is starting to collapse as the mountains of Hispaniola must be starting to cut off the inflow to those storms and the convergence starts shifting to the southern coast of the Island.

Yep, pretty naked but still looks vigorous... appears to be marching off to the WNW.... love tracking storms that keep everyone guessing and discombobulated...

[NotoSans]

Invest 99L looks like it is much better organized this morning the storm looks like a classic circle. Dr. Rick Knapp on the weather channel are saying the winds are at 45mph and pressure is at 1008mb this morning and they have a recon plane flying to 99L this morning. Based on satellite images and winds we have a tropical storm right now. If this is the case the Euro would be correct showing a strong tropical storm or hurricane hitting south Florida. Just an opinion not a forecast.

This invest remains a sheared mess, not to mention recon is still struggling to close off a well-defined circulation. During diurnal maximum, there is often very strong convective burst, which may make the system look much more better organized on infrared imagery. However, when sunlight comes, visible imagery will tell another imagery as those convection will diminish.

[OntarioEggplant]

06Z HWRF shifts west and is rapidly deepening it in the SE GOM

[setexholmes]

Talked about hurricane procedures today at work here at the Port Arthur refinery. Talking to people around her you would think we were in the cone lol. I know the models show something different but I gotta say there is more anxiety around here than there was during bill last year!

[wzrgirl1]

According to recon it looks as if the strongest winds they have found thus far are 32 mph. Am I seeing this correctly?

[MGC]

Still naked this morning...should be near Grand Turk later today. When 99L gets into the Bahamas we'll have plenty of surface obs. Still think we are a day or two away from classification....MGC

[SouthFLTropics]

Still naked this morning...should be near Grand Turk later today. When 99L gets into the Bahamas we'll have plenty of surface obs. Still think we are a day or two away from classification....MGC

Agreed...But it should be noted that based on the first visible images the circulation appears to be alive and well and did not die a long slow death over Hispaniola last night. I'm seeing rotation to the NE of the Haiti/DR border moving off to the WNW.

[Alyono]

Talked about hurricane procedures today at work here at the Port Arthur refinery. Talking to people around her you would think we were in the cone lol. I know the models show something different but I gotta say there is more anxiety around here than there was during bill last year!

The cone has nothing yo do with the uncertainty. Anyone who tells you that does not know what rhe cone is

[SouthDadeFish]

Disorganized YES do we have a closed LLC for classification is the question??

Does not look closed on visible satellite imagery. It might take until tomorrow night/Saturday for it to close off, if it ever does. I still think TC genesis is more likely than not, but there is way too much shear right due to the displaced anticyclone to the south.

[NDG]

Just as I thought the first visible satellite shows the low level swirl (vorticity) naked, near 21N & 70.5W, as the convection that was close to it during the night has died out as the mountains to the south of it has cut off the southerly inflow and convergence has set along the southern and eastern coast of the Hispaniola.