ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Great, now we have to endure the race to be the guy who called Bones in today, only to see it come flying back in the Bahamas.

the forecast has always been that it would be weak until the Bahamas...so far its performing as expected by euro and gfs..the big issue is what happens in and after the Bahamas and thats where the modeling particularly the gfs and hwrf has been inconsistent(thats being generous) with intensity and track

recall wxman57 said earlier this week dont expect much until Thursday/Friday..that is also on schedule

nhc continues to like the potential as it remains at 80% through 5 days

[tolakram]

live visible, still naked.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[wzrgirl1]

Naked but alive.

[euro6208]

Right now the only positive about this to trackers are the models depiction of a better future environment aka the strengthening.

Watch the models start backing up on development...Shear and Mountains are too great.

[jlauderdal]

Naked but alive.

yep..as long as there is a swirl and its moving NW at a decent clip then it must be monitored closely..again, maybe its a bit weaker than originally forecast but in general its behaving to this point as forecast and that is a win for the models

[Gustywind]

Decreasing numbers for 99L...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/1145 UTC 21.0N 70.6W T1.5/2.0 99L
25/0545 UTC 20.7N 68.1W T2.0/2.0 99L

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave
is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of
Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and
thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest
pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to
lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally conducive for development during the next day or so,
they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend,
and this system could become a tropical depression during the next
couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico
today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could
lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued
by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from
the National Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since it is increasing likely that
some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur
beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

[AJC3]

Prepare to fall in love with a satellite time lapse...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

It's GOES-14 doing a SRSO test for GOES-R.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016



...Gale Warning for Southwest Atlantic...
A Gale warning has been issued for the area northeast of a broad
area of low pressure analyzed as a 1008 mb low north of
Hispaniola near 21N68.5W. These winds are expected to continue
for the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 17N-21N between 66W-69W including portions of
Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage, and from 17N to over
Hispaniola between 69W-73W. Environmental conditions have the
potential to become more conducive for tropical development over
the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds, heavy rains,
and possible flash floods and mudslides are likely to occur over
portions of Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos, Hispaniola, and
the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of
days. There is a medium chance of tropical development in the
next 48 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

There is a mid or upper level low spinning away near 24N 68W seen here on WV imagery. This may very well be keeping the upper level cyclone displaced to the SE of the surface circulation..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/html5-wv-long.html

[Nimbus]

Early this morning recon ruled out a LLC unless its small or close to the coast of Hispaniola.
Looks like a classic case of land interaction which none of the models explicitly detailed.
I agree that the high mountains cutting off the southern circulation may force the weak northern pole to develop along the north coast later maybe when that crosses north of windward passage?

The whole system is currently embedded in the eastern region of a building high and that tends to negate poleward recurve.

[SouthDadeFish]

Prepare to fall in love with a satellite time lapse...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

It's GOES-14 doing a SRSO test for GOES-R.

Beautiful! I love the temporal resolution! It looks like we have a new round of convection about to fire to the SE of the center. It also looks like the naked swirl is pretty close to having some westerly winds.

[SouthFLTropics]

Prepare to fall in love with a satellite time lapse...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

It's GOES-14 doing a SRSO test for GOES-R.

Very cool image and very detailed...Thanks for sharing that.

[tropicwatch]

I'm guessing only mets can access that site.

[dantonlsu]

Prepare to fall in love with a satellite time lapse...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

It's GOES-14 doing a SRSO test for GOES-R.

Very cool!

[SouthDadeFish]

Beautiful morning view of Invest 99L:



The high-resolution imagery can be found here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp

[alienstorm]

99L is for all intent and purposes finish, the naked spin approaching Turks and Caicos is what's left. It looks like the GFS was right all the time.

[Nimbus]

Yup its small naked swirl is almost north of the windward passage!

[SouthFLTropics]

99L is for all intent and purposes finish, the naked spin approaching Turks and Caicos is what's left. It looks like the GFS was right all the time.

With all due respect, this isn't even close to be done yet. The most reliable models don't show this developing until at least Saturday. It's right on track.

[AJC3]

Beautiful! I love the temporal resolution! It looks like we have a new round of convection about to fire to the SE of the center. It also looks like the naked swirl is pretty close to having some westerly winds.

When you max out the speed on the slider bar, there's no jumpiness at all in the imagery! The cloud features seem to literally skate or slide. It gives it sort of that super slow-mo feel, where you can see every minute detail. #ImInLove