ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

99L is for all intent and purposes finish, the naked spin approaching Turks and Caicos is what's left. It looks like the GFS was right all the time.

which run of the gfs are you referring too..there have been many solutions presented by the gfs

[deltadog03]

[Tireman4]

99L is for all intent and purposes finish, the naked spin approaching Turks and Caicos is what's left. It looks like the GFS was right all the time.

Lots of time and acreage to cover. This is far from from over.

[Aric Dunn]

the thing is so far ahead of all the models.. going to be a gulf system..

[txwatcher91]

99L is for all intent and purposes finish, the naked spin approaching Turks and Caicos is what's left. It looks like the GFS was right all the time.

Way too early to say this. It's expected to be weak until Friday night and Saturday when it begins to develop. With convection firing near that swirl and models developing it we need to watch it closely. I've seen many times where storms are written off only to fire back up and surprise people. Katrina is one example and we know what happened there.

[Frank2]

Overnight diurnal blob is diminishing, and thunderstorms have moved to the Caribbean side of the DR. Another eddy has appeared, this time SE of the Grand Turk, and similar to the one NE of San Juan at this time yesterday, so we'll see what happens.

The WV shows the high to the north of Florida sagging southward near Lake Okeechobee, so that will be a major factor...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Frank

[northjaxpro]

Sea surface temperatures are running right at 90 degrees in the region of the Bahamas. Just one important major element ready to help fuel this system once the shear abates by Saturday.

[Siker]

Honestly, the HWRF has had a pretty good handle on the appearance / structure of the storm over the past few days, with mid level vorticity sheared way to the East and getting caught over Hispaniola, with heavy thunderstorms nowhere near the center. And it has insisted that the low level spin will remain dominant and form into a storm in the Bahamas. Keep watching.

[Yellow Evan]

99L is for all intent and purposes finish, the naked spin approaching Turks and Caicos is what's left. It looks like the GFS was right all the time.

This should encounter better conditions though.

[NDG]

99L is for all intent and purposes finish, the naked spin approaching Turks and Caicos is what's left. It looks like the GFS was right all the time.

Not so much, the Euro was not doing much with it as it tracked north of Hispaniola before approaching the SE Bahamas if not the central Bahamas.
If anything the vorticity is stronger than what the GFS has been forecasting.

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 251252
AF308 03EEA INVEST HDOB 10 20160825
124230 2034N 06844W 5058 05765 0278 -050 -106 062028 029 /// /// 03
124300 2035N 06847W 5058 05766 0278 -050 -107 063028 029 /// /// 03
124330 2036N 06850W 5056 05768 0278 -050 -100 063028 029 025 000 00
124400 2037N 06852W 5079 05744 0283 -047 -105 061029 030 025 000 03
124430 2038N 06855W 5205 05556 0278 -035 -096 059028 029 026 000 03
124500 2039N 06858W 5400 05265 0263 -018 -072 063026 027 /// /// 03
124530 2040N 06901W 5601 04969 0070 -002 -053 070028 029 /// /// 03
124600 2041N 06904W 5828 04650 0071 +018 -035 077028 030 /// /// 03
124630 2042N 06907W 6060 04338 0088 +029 -010 087021 026 /// /// 03
124700 2043N 06909W 6315 04005 0095 +046 +021 096015 018 /// /// 03
124730 2044N 06911W 6588 03658 0102 +064 +041 101021 022 /// /// 03
124800 2045N 06914W 6873 03311 0108 +080 +058 107022 023 /// /// 03
124830 2046N 06916W 7164 02968 0116 +097 +063 114018 021 /// /// 03
124900 2046N 06918W 7446 02644 0119 +116 +065 119018 019 /// /// 03
124930 2047N 06921W 7746 02312 0122 +133 +074 139022 023 /// /// 03
125000 2048N 06923W 8050 01975 0117 +145 +094 137024 026 /// /// 03
125030 2049N 06925W 8362 01650 0118 +157 +120 148026 027 /// /// 03
125100 2050N 06927W 8691 01321 0120 +175 +138 147030 031 /// /// 03
125130 2050N 06929W 9023 01005 0126 +196 +147 144031 032 /// /// 03
125200 2051N 06931W 9367 00681 0126 +219 +160 145032 033 /// /// 03
$$

[TheStormExpert]

http://i68.tinypic.com/aes0bc.png

Strong shear seems to be moving in tandem with 99L thanks to a displaced anti-cyclone to it's south moving west with it.

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 251302
AF308 03EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20160825
125230 2052N 06934W 9641 00407 0105 +233 +175 149029 033 026 000 00
125300 2053N 06935W 9695 00355 0093 +233 +183 152027 028 026 000 03
125330 2053N 06937W 9658 00390 0096 +224 +191 150027 028 028 000 00
125400 2054N 06939W 9668 00378 0096 +225 +201 151026 028 029 000 03
125430 2055N 06941W 9694 00357 0096 +225 +200 150027 028 028 000 00
125500 2055N 06942W 9704 00345 0095 +227 +194 156027 028 029 000 03
125530 2056N 06944W 9701 00346 0094 +225 +189 151027 027 028 000 00
125600 2056N 06946W 9703 00346 0095 +225 +186 156027 028 027 000 00
125630 2057N 06948W 9699 00346 0094 +226 +176 153028 028 028 000 00
125700 2057N 06949W 9703 00344 0093 +227 +167 154027 029 027 000 00
125730 2057N 06951W 9700 00345 0092 +228 +154 149027 029 029 000 00
125800 2057N 06953W 9703 00343 0093 +229 +149 152029 031 028 000 00
125830 2058N 06955W 9701 00344 0092 +230 +146 151029 031 029 000 00
125900 2058N 06956W 9701 00345 0092 +229 +145 151029 031 030 000 00
125930 2058N 06958W 9701 00345 0092 +230 +143 150030 032 029 000 00
130000 2058N 07000W 9702 00343 0091 +230 +141 149031 031 030 000 00
130030 2058N 07002W 9698 00348 0091 +230 +141 148030 031 030 000 00
130100 2059N 07004W 9701 00343 0089 +230 +142 148029 030 031 000 03
130130 2059N 07005W 9703 00342 0089 +230 +144 149029 029 030 000 00
130200 2059N 07007W 9700 00343 0088 +230 +145 150029 029 029 000 00
$$

[txwatcher91]

As this gets further from the coast of Hispaniola and into lower shear the warmer SST's will do the job. The swirl is quite vigorous still and most of the models really begin to develop it tonight or Friday night.

[wzrgirl1]

My concern is the tricky forecast. What if future Hermine does not decide to form until Saturday? Will that give South Floridians enough time to put up shutters as most won't do so until a watch or warning are up? I know they won't name her until the storm displays such characteristics.

[WeatherEmperor]

the thing is so far ahead of all the models.. going to be a gulf system..

Are you talking about the movement or intensity? If movement, would this mean it has less time to become a hurricane before getting to Florida?

[stormwise]

[Nederlander]

the thing is so far ahead of all the models.. going to be a gulf system..

Are you talking about the movement or intensity? If movement, would this mean it has less time to become a hurricane before getting to Florida?

I think he is referring to forward motion.. A faster moving system gets caught under that ridge.. A slower moving system has time to exploit any weakness in the ridge and go poleward as many of the models have been suggesting

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251312
AF308 03EEA INVEST HDOB 12 20160825
130230 2059N 07009W 9705 00338 0087 +230 +145 155030 031 030 000 00
130300 2100N 07011W 9704 00337 0086 +230 +143 156032 032 029 000 00
130330 2100N 07013W 9700 00340 0087 +230 +142 158032 033 029 000 00
130400 2100N 07014W 9702 00339 0087 +230 +142 156031 032 030 000 00
130430 2100N 07016W 9698 00343 0087 +230 +141 155033 035 031 000 00
130500 2100N 07018W 9702 00339 0087 +230 +140 153033 035 032 000 00
130530 2101N 07020W 9704 00337 0086 +230 +141 149033 033 032 000 00
130600 2101N 07022W 9703 00339 0087 +230 +142 147033 033 031 000 00
130630 2101N 07023W 9698 00342 0086 +230 +144 147031 032 030 000 00
130700 2101N 07025W 9703 00337 0086 +230 +145 146031 031 031 000 00
130730 2101N 07027W 9703 00338 0086 +231 +145 145031 031 030 000 00
130800 2102N 07029W 9698 00344 0086 +230 +146 145031 032 030 000 00
130830 2102N 07031W 9700 00339 0086 +233 +147 145029 031 029 000 03
130900 2102N 07032W 9701 00339 0085 +233 +146 144029 030 031 000 00
130930 2102N 07034W 9699 00343 0086 +235 +148 142025 028 030 000 00
131000 2103N 07036W 9705 00336 0085 +235 +149 145024 026 024 000 00
131030 2103N 07038W 9703 00338 0085 +235 +148 142026 026 025 000 00
131100 2103N 07040W 9698 00343 0084 +237 +145 142027 027 025 000 00
131130 2103N 07041W 9697 00343 0084 +240 +142 140028 029 026 000 00
131200 2103N 07043W 9704 00334 0083 +240 +140 139030 031 027 000 00
$$
;

[wzrgirl1]

Looks like recon found 35 mph winds. Can someone tell me if I saw that correctly and if so will that mean an upgrade to td status at 11:oo?