EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS output brings 94E too far north most likely.

[weathaguyry]

Models back off a bit at 0z run...

[stormwise]

Code: Select all

             *   XGFS    2016063018   *
               *   EP94    INVEST       *
                                                                                                                               
                ------------------------------------------------------     STORM DATA     --------------------------------------
NTIME 019
TIME        (HR)     0     6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
LATITUDE   (DEG)  10.4  10.8  10.1  11.1  12.2  12.7  13.0  13.3  13.4  14.1  14.6  15.2  16.1  16.8  17.3  18.0  18.8  18.8  18.1
LONGITUDE  (DEG) 258.1 257.6 255.7 256.5 256.4 255.6 254.8 253.9 253.2 251.3 249.9 248.3 246.3 243.6 241.1 238.2 235.3 232.0 228.8
MAX WIND    (KT)    20    20    21    21    21    23    26    23    23    25    27    26    26    27    31    29    29    29    24
RMW         (KM)   166   146   209   229   129   163   154   125   157   157   114   115   109    99   109    97   100    84   123
MIN SLP     (MB)  1010  1009  1011  1009  1010  1008  1010  1008  1010  1010  1009  1009  1009  1009  1008  1009  1010  1011  1012
SHR MAG     (KT)    11     8     6     4     5     5     6     9    11    13     8    10    10     9    10    11     5    12    10
SHR DIR    (DEG)    78    63   298   331    20   344   311   304   297   290   268   238   217   201   197   184   147    76    81
STM SPD     (KT)     6    20    13    11     9     8     9     7    10     7     8    11    13    12    14    14    16    16    16
STM HDG    (DEG)   309   249    38   355   303   291   289   278   291   290   291   295   285   282   284   286   270   257   257
SST        (10C)   300   300   299   301   301   301   299   296   295   294   293   290   281   273   263   253   245   245   250
OHC     (KJ/CM2)  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999
TPW         (MM)    62    62    63    62    61    62    62    62    63    64    63    65    62    61    59    61    58    57    56
LAND        (KM)   739   720   876   739   632   613   612   629   658   705   760   850   849   952  1078  1240  1407  1661  1977
850TANG  (10M/S)    37    41    50    54    58    60    63    67    72    75    84    81    83    83    89    76    66    61    48
850VORT     (/S)    -4     6     7    16    11     8    -2    -9   -14   -24   -26   -20   -15     9    10    -1    12    26    59
200DVRG     (/S)   101   102    94    95    69    83    74    55    75   100    40    20    27    22    11    24    27    -4    17
                                                                                                                               

Code: Select all

            *   XUKM    2016063018   *
               *   EP94    INVEST       *
                                                                                                                               
                ------------------------------------------------------     STORM DATA     --------------------------------------
NTIME 010
TIME        (HR)     0     6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48    60
LATITUDE   (DEG)   9.4   9.8  10.2  10.9  11.9  12.8  13.2  13.6  13.9  14.6
LONGITUDE  (DEG) 256.5 256.2 255.9 255.7 254.9 253.8 252.7 251.6 250.5 249.0
MAX WIND    (KT)    17    20    21    22    23    21    20    23    28    30
RMW         (KM)   184   186   164   156   146   151   153    84    71    69
MIN SLP     (MB)  1011  1009  1011  1009  1010  1007  1010  1007  1006  1004
SHR MAG     (KT)     5     3     4     4     2     2     4     4     4     8
SHR DIR    (DEG)   129   208   273   310     1   336   326   321   273   276
STM SPD     (KT)     5     5     7    13    14    11    11    11     8     8
STM HDG    (DEG)   324   324   344   322   310   290   290   286   296   296
SST        (10C)   298   299   299   301   301   298   295   295   295   292
OHC     (KJ/CM2)  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999
TPW         (MM)    65    65    64    63    63    63    63    63    63    63
LAND        (KM)   911   884   857   795   721   682   706   735   775   833
850TANG  (10M/S)    52    57    61    64    64    63    65    74    79    83
850VORT     (/S)    -9    -9   -15   -10   -21   -44   -44   -41   -33   -32
200DVRG     (/S)    71    78    81    65    59    58    57    46    51    45

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/5fef5d9340.png

on this model run 94E dissipates, the next storm is the 1000mb TS. Then another 3 storm is the 960 cane.

[euro6208]

After what over 10 runs of showing a strong Cat 4 even a 5, latest run continues the disappointment. No longer developing this...

[Kingarabian]

Euro has not quit on this. Still shows 94E becoming a healthy major hurricane eventually.

Future 95E (which the NHC should designate soon) will strengthen temporarily and then weaken, opening the door for 94E, future 96E and future 97E.

[Kingarabian]

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Kingarabian]

GFS back to showing a deepening hurricane 4 days out.

[Kingarabian]

Less concentrated convection but has a nice mid level rotation.

[RL3AO]

Seeing that satellite loop and nothing else this morning my gut says that's the beginning of a strong tc.

[stormwise]

Mid-level shear.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Convection decrease appears to be diurnal.

[1900hurricane]

Convection decrease appears to be diurnal.

I'll partially agree, but convection was already on the downswing well prior to sunrise. I'm not too worried at this juncture though. 94E's vorticity remains very well consolidated.

[cycloneye]

Ship goes bonkers.I am waiting for HWRF to begin it's runs to see how far up it goes.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/748887047860019201

[weathaguyry]

Interesting...

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is very bullish repeating what 06z had.

[cycloneye]

94E may get close or surpass this record.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/748908094231543809

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure continues several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and only slow
development is expected today and Saturday. After that time,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a tropical
depression to form while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent