ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 12.5°N 46.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Gustywind]

18z Best Track:

Location: 12.5°N 46.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

Pressure down to 1009 mb now compared the previous . 92L is really making a nice comeback and a little South.


Location: 13.0°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 NM

[gatorcane]

it's odd the GFS and ECMWF are not showing much of anything with this the way it is improving as far as convection and with not a lot of shear out ahead of it. Then again, these models have been atrocious at times with their genesis forecasts this year as we have seen. Ever since they took big upgrades earlier this year, they just don't seem the same. Agreed likely cause for no development from these models is the fast forward speed combined with a surge of SAL in the next couple of days that can squash the convection.

[Gustywind]

it's odd the GFS and ECMWF are not showing much of anything with this the way it is improving as far as convection and with not a lot of shear out ahead of it. Then again, these models have been atrocious at times with their genesis forecasts this year as we have seen. Ever since they took big upgrades earlier this year, they just don't seem the same. Agreed likely cause for no development from these models is the fast forward speed combined with a surge of SAL in the next couple of days that can squash the convection.

I like you point of view Gatorcane , you may be very right on that . So it's models vs reality. This twave continues to show a much potentiel of developpement since this morning. If this continues i won't be surprise to see higher % from the NHC sooner. We will see, time will tell.

[colbroe]

92L is starting to get that look.

[johngaltfla]

92L is in the prime slot for a Yucatan Express look. Let's hope it doesn't develop but wow, what a comeback.

[wxman57]

This is quite a strong disturbance. What I find most interesting is that the EC, Canadian, & GFS all take it into the Caribbean vs. the Bahamas now. However, if the GFS is right, shear may be SCREAMING across the southern Gulf next week:

[floridasun78]

hope cmc wrong with 92l want go were Hermine hit last night

[Kazmit]

Judging by it's latitude, it looks like this will be a Caribbean cruiser. It might even make it into the gulf later on.

[GeneratorPower]

This is quite a strong disturbance. What I find most interesting is that the EC, Canadian, & GFS all take it into the Caribbean vs. the Bahamas now. However, if the GFS is right, shear may be SCREAMING across the southern Gulf next week:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_28.png

Question: suppose a Cat 4 hurricane approaches the gulf in your shear map above. To what extent would it be affected by the shear and to what extent would it be making its own environment and simple change the shear pattern with its arrival?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Shower activity has increased since yesterday in association with a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and
any additional development of this system should be slow to occur
while it approaches the Lesser Antilles and continues westward into
the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[wxman57]

This is quite a strong disturbance. What I find most interesting is that the EC, Canadian, & GFS all take it into the Caribbean vs. the Bahamas now. However, if the GFS is right, shear may be SCREAMING across the southern Gulf next week:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_28.png

Question: suppose a Cat 4 hurricane approaches the gulf in your shear map above. To what extent would it be affected by the shear and to what extent would it be making its own environment and simple change the shear pattern with its arrival?

If a Cat 4 hurricane ran into that much shear it wouldn't last long as a hurricane. Of course, it's a forecast of shear. I don't see the same shear pattern in the ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 13.0°N 47.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[LENNY]

Hey Gustywind, we have to watch 92L and monitor this vigorous wave

[Bailey1777]

Barely time to catch our breath...not saying it will but if this is a GOM player we hit reset and it all starts again, islands too...sorry my island friends...

[Steve]

I'm sure I'm not the only Gulf of Mexican to say I am kind of scared of the prospects of 92L. No panic button obviously but it's suspicious, and I think more so than what NHC shows. To be fair they only go out to 5 days which could be right. But unless this buries down on the YP or C.A., I think the potential is there.

[Johnny77]

Good inflow & outflow on 92L, warm sea temps, not much shear, and not much dry air (though there is dry air further west). And, looking quite healthy tonight for a tropical wave at that longitude. Not sure why the models aren't picking up on this...

[gatorcane]

Atlantic wide loop showing 92l quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles and building convection:

[SoupBone]

Atlantic wide loop showing 92l quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles and building convection:

Holy Carp! How is it moving that fast? It's only a few days from the eastern edge of the Lesser Antilles! Also it looks like it gained some latitude from earlier today.

[hurricanehunter69]

I'm sure I'm not the only Gulf of Mexican to say I am kind of scared of the prospects of 92L. No panic button obviously but it's suspicious, and I think more so than what NHC shows. To be fair they only go out to 5 days which could be right. But unless this buries down on the YP or C.A., I think the potential is there.

Yep, I have a bad feeling about this system myself. I have to believe the models will start getting much more aggressive with this invest very soon. Check out( on Mimic ) how it spun down and went through a weakening phase over a two day period, but is now definitely showing signs of strengthening. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html