ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

So perhaps the swirl is just going around a broader circulation.

[jlauderdal]

I know the pro mets have told us not to focus on the exact center in the models for initialization...but I just cannot help but notice something. Right now, this naked swirl is right at the Turks and Caicos. If you look at the 00Z Euro from this morning, it has the center approaching the Turks and Caicos in 24 hours or Friday morning to be exact. So this means that 99L is a full 24 hours ahead of schedule if you believe the modeling. What implications could this have for Florida track and intensity wise?

it means keep shifting the track west. this will likely now get into the gulf through the straights or extreme south florida before and recurve

What intensity could we expect in South Florida? TD or TS?

unknown is the only answer

[NDG]

I spoke too soon they just found some light westerly winds to the SW of the swirl.

33930 2011N 07133W 9807 00251 0093 +231 +162 195004 005 015 000 00
134000 2009N 07133W 9806 00250 0092 +236 +163 243006 006 012 000 00
134030 2008N 07133W 9805 00254 0092 +235 +165 268006 007 011 000 00
134100 2006N 07133W 9752 00298 0090 +238 +159 224003 005 010 000 00

thats not with the center of the swirl its associated like yesterday with the boundary to the south ...

Yeah, I agree.

[Aric Dunn]

I know the pro mets have told us not to focus on the exact center in the models for initialization...but I just cannot help but notice something. Right now, this naked swirl is right at the Turks and Caicos. If you look at the 00Z Euro from this morning, it has the center approaching the Turks and Caicos in 24 hours or Friday morning to be exact. So this means that 99L is a full 24 hours ahead of schedule if you believe the modeling. What implications could this have for Florida track and intensity wise?

it means keep shifting the track west. this will likely now get into the gulf through the straights or extreme south florida before and recurve

What intensity could we expect in South Florida? TD or TS?

at this rate weak TS at best if it can get its acted together. of course no one can say for sure and just have to keep watching.

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

in terms of track the 06z hwrf looks to be pretty good given its lack of convection and forward motion.

[NDG]

The weird thing is that the recon found lower pressure close to the Haitian coast along the 20th latitude than by the naked swirl to the NE. So 99L still has ways to go to get better organized.

[RL3AO]

This might do something before hitting S FL, but my worry has shifted to what this may do in the GOM. This might end up shooting the gap in the Florida Straits.

[seatrump]

Hi guys,
Beautiful day here in the Turks and Caicos. 87 degrees, 76% humidity. Mostly sunny, light breeze from the east at about 10 knots. No rain today so far. Hard to believe anything much will happen here.

Live webcam : https://www.wunderground.com/webcams/Zray/1/show.html

[BucMan2]

The Euro the last 2 runs has had 99L riding up the west coast of Florida . Is that still a possibility?

[RL3AO]

The Euro the last 2 runs has had 99L riding up the west coast of Florida . Is that still a possibility?

Yes

[hohnywx]

The Euro the last 2 runs has had 99L riding up the west coast of Florida . Is that still a possibility?

Of course. Look at the wild swings in the models...any location in the Gulf is a possibility.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like convection is going up near the center, need to keep an eye on that to see if it stays with it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[artist]

The weird thing is that the recon found lower pressure close to the Haitian coast along the 20th latitude than by the naked swirl to the NE. So 99L still has ways to go to get better organized.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768800610925678594




from Eric at the NHC just awhile ago:
Very large 24hr pressure falls of 5 mb observed on Grand Turk Island as #99L approaches- impressive! @canedancerlix pic.twitter.com/9vl1QODuPX

[jlauderdal]

The weird thing is that the recon found lower pressure close to the Haitian coast along the 20th latitude than by the naked swirl to the NE. So 99L still has ways to go to get better organized.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768800610925678594




from Eric at the NHC just awhile ago:
Very large 24hr pressure falls of 5 mb observed on Grand Turk Island as #99L approaches- impressive! @canedancerlix pic.twitter.com/9vl1QODuPX


system is making progress this morning..lets see if it can sustain it

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z Euro from last night looks to nail its 24 hour forecast spot on.. 99L may be a little ahead of schedule but only by a few hours... Euro has a SE Florida landfall Sunday evening around Florida City/Miami area... if this is currently moving a little ahead of schedule wouldn't that just allow it to get a touch farther north before feeling the effects of the building ridge? EURO 48hr forecast has this on the southern tip of Cat Island and then passing directly over Nassau before turning W and hitting Florida.. if this follows the Euro's forecast which it has pretty closely so far how does this miss Sfla to the South?

[tolakram]

30 frame visible, looks like we overloaded the rapid scan site, it won't load for me.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/ChrisLandsea/status/768817084608483328

[lhpfish]

Looks like she is about to be entering the lower shear environment.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[SouthFLTropics]

30 frame visible, looks like we overloaded the rapid scan site, it won't load for me.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

That loop clearly shows the vigorous circulation is there. It only needs to find the perfect conditions and it will take off. I think it is still encountering some shear because the tops on those T-Storms that were firing this morning have seemed to blow off. It appears a fresh round of convection is getting ready to fire ESE of the center. Based on this loop it appears to me to be tracking WNW or maybe even straight west.