ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong but to me it appears that along with the high bordered right along Lake Okeechobee there also appears to be an ULL sinking south near the Florida/Georgia border. If that is the case will this inhibit development or will it setup to provide an outflow channel and aid development?

If it is a ULL and if it were to slide far enough SW it would really enhance the outflow.

[txwatcher91]

On the European EPS it shows the 594 Ridge but what will make it retreat as it shows allowing 99L to move north and then NE?

Approaching shortwave in the Midwest is what will cause it to weaken and shift allowing 99L to drift north. The timing and how quickly the ridge actually breaks down will be the key to how far west this ends up before turning north.

[supercane]

I think it should be close to the time the NHC should consider tropical storm watches for the area of Florida south of Palm Beach to north of Naples on the west coast including the upper keys. We are coming up on a weekend and admittedly by their 48 hour outlook, this could be a named system in 48 hours.

Can't be done given current operating procedures. To quote NHC,

In 2016, NHC will be working behind the scenes on potential future enhancements to its products and services. One of these in-house developmental projects involves the creation of track, intensity, and size forecasts for disturbances that pose a threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under current NWS policy, it is not possible to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning for these systems - the tropical cyclone has to actually form before the first watch can be issued.

(bold added)
(Source: Update on National Hurricane Center Products and Services for 2016, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160307_pa_2016SeasonChanges.pdf)

[Blown Away]

99L moving at modest clip near NW and about to cross 72W... HWRF has 99L in Keys @90hrs... Serious slow down going to need to occur soon...

Are you seeing a NW heading or more of a westerly heading. It looked to me to be more west without a northerly component. The ridge to the north is very stout.

Near 21.5N/71.6W... Turn on SAB and you can see @300 degree movement IMO...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[stormlover2013]

Great break down from Meterologist Travis Herzog:
Tropical uncertainy remains high, comparisons to Ike and Rita, and is there a connection between summer rains at Hobby Airport and tropical activity over Texas?
I've got a lot of interesting tidbits to share with you, but I'll try to keep it brief.
As of Thursday morning, the tropical disturbance remains poorly organized. High wind shear coming from the Bahamas is pushing the storms south over Hispaniola. For a tropical disturbance to develop, the storms have to form over the center. That wind shear is expected to slowly decrease between now and Saturday, which should increase the chances this develops into Hermine over the weekend.
Overnight, the computer model tracks started to cluster over Florida, with only a few into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Now as the Thursday morning computer model tracks trickle in, we're seeing more shift back into the western Gulf of Mexico.
So which ones do we believe? Right now, it's impossible to say. Until a trackable depression or storm actually develops, they're all just guessing with really sophisticated calculus equations.
For now, we continue to just keep you aware and informed while uncertainty remains high.
Some have asked about comparisons to Ike and Rita. I think it's a fair question to ask. Why? Most storms in the Bahamas don't come to Texas. Ike and Rita did.
The current position of this disturbance is actually located in the exact spot Ike crossed over in 2008 and very near where Rita formed in 2005, but that really tells us nothing about what *this* storm will do.
Ike was a completley different setup, already a major category 4 hurricane and barreling westward toward Cuba.
Rita did form in almost this exact location, and the upper level steering flow is somewhat similar. That's where the comparion ends. All this tells me is that a path toward Texas is possible based solely on history, but it says nothing about the current state of the atmosphere and what this thing will eventually do.
So this is no Ike, but there are shades of Rita.
Finally, this was an interesting connection I made this morning, but I have no idea if it means anything for us in the future.
Our local National Weather Service office pointed at that today Hobby Airport could break it's streak of longest consecutive days with measurable rain. That streak currently stands at 12. When you look at the other four years in the top 5 list, they all occurred during summers when Texas was impacted by named tropical systems:
2008 - Ike, Dolly, Edouard
2005 - Rita
2001 - Allison
1968 - Candy
Let's hope we break that connection in 2016.

[fci]

Albeit I am a rank amateur and one should be only guided by alerts from the NHC and local meteorologists, I think it should be close to the time the NHC should consider tropical storm watches for the area of Florida south of Palm Beach to north of Naples on the west coast including the upper keys. We are coming up on a weekend and admittedly by their 48 hour outlook, this could be a named system in 48 hours. IMO, the distinction between a low grade TS and a rigorous open wave is not significant enough to await the exact moment especially given the fact there has been little activitiy in this area in the past ten years with many new yankees completely unaware of the effects of these storms. I can only surmise the NHC believes the DR is going to destroy this storm or inhibit it enough that nothing happens till monday, or that the south moving ridge will push it SW.

Lets consider this, Andrew at 66W was 1000MB. at 74W it was circa 930MB, 2+ days later. While this is not a TS as was Andrew, that storm showed what can happen in a super charged environment. Andrew was different in that it was farther north at this time and began a WSW run due to a strong HP system to the north.

I don't think that there is a need to put up Tropical Storm Watches at this time.
Quite frankly, residents won't do anything.
Living here, a Tropical Storm is little more than a day where summer thunderstorms are more intense than usual.
We can easily handle winds of 40-50 and 3-5 inches of rain. We get that when convective storms are intense.

[LoveWeather12]

I live in south central FL and According to most people on this page, it looks like this won't develop and threatened FL. I'm only going based off of what people are posting on here. Looks like FL has a shield around this state I guess. I know I'm not going to pay attention to this or any other storm in the future. I'm not preparing for any more storm threats because they seem to never hit us after all. I know that's harsh but I'm so tired of being told to prepare and get hyped then nothing happens. I'm starting to believe a hurricane won't hit us again.
I only go by what people post and everyone is saying that the storm won't form and threatened FL as a tropical storm or weak hurricane

[SoupBone]

Finally, this was an interesting connection I made this morning, but I have no idea if it means anything for us in the future.
Our local National Weather Service office pointed at that today Hobby Airport could break it's streak of longest consecutive days with measurable rain. That streak currently stands at 12. When you look at the other four years in the top 5 list, they all occurred during summers when Texas was impacted by named tropical systems:
2008 - Ike, Dolly, Edouard
2005 - Rita
2001 - Allison
1968 - Candy
Let's hope we break that connection in 2016.

I'm sorry, but how does he make the connection between these two? He jumps from A to Z with no letters between them explaining WHY this connection exists. So what do Hobby Airport (a very specific location) rainfall amounts have to do with tropical system landfalls in the State? I'm sorry, but...

[TimeZone]

Man that is one sloppy looking invest. Would be surprised if it became anything more than a messy looking TS if I had to guess.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[fci]

I live in south central FL and According to most people on this page, it looks like this won't develop and threatened FL. I'm only going based off of what people are posting on here. Looks like FL has a shield around this state I guess. I know I'm not going to pay attention to this or any other storm in the future. I'm not preparing for any more storm threats because they seem to never hit us after all. I know that's harsh but I'm so tired of being told to prepare and get hyped then nothing happens. I'm starting to believe a hurricane won't hit us again.
I only go by what people post and everyone is saying that the storm won't form and threatened FL as a tropical storm or weak hurricane

I lived here most of my life and your viewpoint is flat out wrong.
A very small percentage of these systems pan out but when they do its important to be ready.
So, just monitor these situations, listen to advisories and outlooks from NHC and local media and check in here at S2K to make sure.i agree not to panic but to ignore is wrong.

[StormHunter72]

I live in south central FL and According to most people on this page, it looks like this won't develop and threatened FL. I'm only going based off of what people are posting on here. Looks like FL has a shield around this state I guess. I know I'm not going to pay attention to this or any other storm in the future. I'm not preparing for any more storm threats because they seem to never hit us after all. I know that's harsh but I'm so tired of being told to prepare and get hyped then nothing happens. I'm starting to believe a hurricane won't hit us again.
I only go by what people post and everyone is saying that the storm won't form and threatened FL as a tropical storm or weak hurricane

I would rather prepare 100 times and not need to be prepared, rather than not prepare the one time I should.

[ronyan]

I live in south central FL and According to most people on this page, it looks like this won't develop and threatened FL. I'm only going based off of what people are posting on here. Looks like FL has a shield around this state I guess. I know I'm not going to pay attention to this or any other storm in the future. I'm not preparing for any more storm threats because they seem to never hit us after all. I know that's harsh but I'm so tired of being told to prepare and get hyped then nothing happens. I'm starting to believe a hurricane won't hit us again.
I only go by what people post and everyone is saying that the storm won't form and threatened FL as a tropical storm or weak hurricane

This will very likely affect south Florida in some form. Do not take everything you read on this forum as gospel, pay closer attention to the folks in blue (pro meteorologists: SouthTexasStroms, wxman57, deltadog, AirForceMet, Alyono, AJC3 etc)

[Mouton]

Can't be done given current operating procedures. To quote NHC,

In 2016, NHC will be working behind the scenes on potential future enhancements to its products and services. One of these in-house developmental projects involves the creation of track, intensity, and size forecasts for disturbances that pose a threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under current NWS policy, it is not possible to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning for these systems - the tropical cyclone has to actually form before the first watch can be issued.

(bold added)
(Source: Update on National Hurricane Center Products and Services for 2016, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160307_pa_2016SeasonChanges.pdf)

I did not know that...thanks.

[dantonlsu]

Man that is one sloppy looking invest. Would be surprised if it became anything more than a messy looking TS if I had to guess.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I'd gladly take this bet...

Wait for this to enter an area with minimal shear & favorable waters, this storm has potential.

[JaxGator]

I live in south central FL and According to most people on this page, it looks like this won't develop and threatened FL. I'm only going based off of what people are posting on here. Looks like FL has a shield around this state I guess. I know I'm not going to pay attention to this or any other storm in the future. I'm not preparing for any more storm threats because they seem to never hit us after all. I know that's harsh but I'm so tired of being told to prepare and get hyped then nothing happens. I'm starting to believe a hurricane won't hit us again.
I only go by what people post and everyone is saying that the storm won't form and threatened FL as a tropical storm or weak hurricane

Well, it's also my opinion that you SHOULD prepare for any tropical system that heads your way. Many hurricanes (some very powerful) have hit your area several times. So don't let your guard down regardless of how a storm looks now. And there is also NO SHEILD around Florida . Be prepared always.

[cycloneye]

New Air Force mission underway.

[Hurricaneman]

There's still shear, the storms that were near the center blew off

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768832881422577665

[northjaxpro]

On the European EPS it shows the 594 Ridge but what will make it retreat as it shows allowing 99L to move north and then NE?

Approaching shortwave in the Midwest is what will cause it to weaken and shift allowing 99L to drift north. The timing and how quickly the ridge actually breaks down will be the key to how far west this ends up before turning north.

Sums this up in a nutshell!!!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/768835360092741632