ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

That upper level low y'all see is also being forecasted to rotate around the building ridge. That won't be the problem

[alienstorm]

I understand we are all paying attention to the swirl near Turks, however, if you look off the NE coast of DR we may have another LLC taking shape.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMf0bFzw3.jpg

[adam0983]

How can anyone see a center with invest 99L all this looks like is just a bunch of thunderstorms. Anyone who is saying they see a center is just guessing. We won't now where the center is until if and when invest 99L moves away from Hispaniola. All models should be thrown out till then. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

Isn't that the ULL that's suppose to enhance the outflow?

[CFLHurricane]

I appreciate how uncle shear was nowhere to be found until we got a storm trying to form

[AutoPenalti]

I understand we are all paying attention to the swirl near Turks, however, if you look off the NE coast of DR we may have another LLC taking shape.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMf0bFzw3.jpg

Probably just an eddy...

[Hurricaneman]

I understand we are all paying attention to the swirl near Turks, however, if you look off the NE coast of DR we may have another LLC taking shape.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMf0bFzw3.jpg

The recon seemed to also find a vortmax there this morning also so that could be an interesting development. without convection over the main center its possible this one off the NE Hispaniola could become the main one

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[davidiowx]

How can anyone see a center with invest 99L all this looks like is just a bunch of thunderstorms. Anyone who is saying they see a center is just guessing. We won't now where the center is until if and when invest 99L moves away from Hispaniola. All models should be thrown out till then. Just an opinion not a forecast.

You can clearly see the spin on Satellite..

[AdamFirst]

The ULL over Georgia is currently moving SSW - like a previous poster mentioned, it is rotating around the pressure ridge. It (likely) won't be there by the time the center is in the NW Bahamas two days from now.

[SeGaBob]

Remember it's not even in the Bahamas yet...

[WeatherEmperor]

I appreciate how uncle shear was nowhere to be found until we got a storm trying to form

I wish I could LIKE your post about a million times over. Always shows up magically...

[northjaxpro]

Here comes the upper-level low over South Carolina that the GFS has been showing will induce shear over 99L even in the Bahamas...

Thinking that may just be it for 99L. Just my opinion though

Yeah, I saw that ULL and this likely explains GFS showing why so much limited development for most of this week
. The next 36 hours or so will give tell the tale imo. Either 99L will somehow find a sweet spot somewhere,
or the shear will ultimately win out and dissipate 99L.

Personally, I still believe this system will find a sweet spot and try to ventilate and organize over this weekend. We can only watch and wait to see how.it all unfolds.

[centuryv58]

I appreciate how uncle shear was nowhere to be found until we got a storm trying to form

I wish I could LIKE your post about a million times over. Always shows up magically...

And on Weatherbell.com, JB says don't give up yet. So more watching I guess.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The upper low off the Southeast is not specific to the GFS. The Euro has the same feature.

[PTrackerLA]

No more clarity today IMO than any other the past few days. It's either the GFS is on crack, needs to be trashed etc or "maybe it's right"...even seeing this from pro-mets. All the while we wait for the Euro to see if it shows a hurricane in the gulf for the 7th run in a row. Fascinating and frustrating times!

[stormlover2013]

one of the models are on crack lol.....but the big player is the RIDGE is stronger as hell

[psyclone]

HPC QPF depicts widespread 5"+ from south florida up to the big bend with an 8.7" jackpot over charlotte harbor. This is a useful product to keep an eye on for clues on what may happen.

[northjaxpro]

The upper low off the Southeast is not specific to the GFS. The Euro has the same feature.

Yes that is right. It is just the focus for much of the week was made of the GFS never really developing 99L maturely.

[HurriGuy]

Yeah J.B. pointed out something I didn't realize. The ecmwf doesn't give this system a westside until at Florida

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/768850478058893312