ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Just think. If this doesn’t develop that I’m sure it will set some kind of record. Well over 100 pages of discussions and what will probably be over 200 pages of models. Wow.

[Aric Dunn]

not much is going to happen today. combination of shear and dry boundary layer will make it very difficult to produce any convection. once it slows down more it will have a chance.

[ROCK]

If it stays weak or undeveloped would that indicate a more westerly path?

look at the current 12Z BAMM shallow storm yes more west. but subject to change as things develop or dont develop... its one hot mess right now...

[Nederlander]

If it stays weak or undeveloped would that indicate a more westerly path?

I don't think that's as big a factor with this set-up. That ridge is strong currently and it is what will steer whatever becomes (or doesn't) of 99L.. No matter how strong or weak it is, its not pushing into that ridge as it sits now..

[BeRad954]

Total amateur opinion here and a long time lurker, but is it possible that most of the moisture and convection is being held south by the terrain of Hispanola? Just an observation.

[emeraldislenc]

When will the new European model come out? It is really struggling right now.

[psyclone]

Psyclone, your instincts were correct. NHC did go down 10% indeed in their 2 day and 5 day outlook. for the 2 p.m. TWO. Now at 40/70 respectfully.

I thought that might happen last night so my batting average isn't so hot..lol

[Bailey1777]

IMO 40 - 70 the way this system looks is still not a finishing blow...I have seen really good looking systems with those same percentages.

[Nederlander]

Total amateur opinion here and a long time lurker, but is it possible that most of the moisture and convection is being held south by the terrain of Hispanola? Just an observation.

The convection has been getting blown off by shear. Think of it like 99L is getting a haircut... a pretty nasty one at that..

[emeraldislenc]

It may wait until the gulf to get its act together

[northjaxpro]

This is captain James T Kirk here can you get me on the phone with Dr. McCoy aka Bones. Yes this is Dr. McCoy here what do you need Captain Kirk. I need you to beam down to invest 99L and finish this annoying system off once and for all so we can stop making ourselves crazy watching this annoying rain maker. I am going to invest 99L right now Captain Kirk. Just an opinion not a forecast.

You know, I tell you some of you out there really provide some mindless humor on the forums at times. But, seriously, I am not ready yet to page Bones on the scene lol. Not yet.

[BeRad954]

Total amateur opinion here and a long time lurker, but is it possible that most of the moisture and convection is being held south by the terrain of Hispanola? Just an observation.

The convection has been getting blown off by shear. Think of it like 99L is getting a haircut... a pretty nasty one at that..

Got it. Thanks for the insight

[SoupBone]

Total amateur opinion here and a long time lurker, but is it possible that most of the moisture and convection is being held south by the terrain of Hispanola? Just an observation.

The convection has been getting blown off by shear. Think of it like 99L is getting a haircut... a pretty nasty one at that..

Invest 99phiL

[Nederlander]

Ever since AJC3 posted this link this morning, I can't seem to take my eyes off of it.. great vis imagery even if 99L looks like garbage..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-14_1_minute_visible_sector_01&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80

[TropicalSailor]

I've been lurking around for some time and am certainly not an expert but it just appears to me that this thing is right at the line of succeeding or failing. I don't think it has to last until Saturday. It just looks like it needs another 6-8 hours.

Seems what little convection has happened just to the E has not been swept away as easily.

[gatorcane]

Euro has backed WAY off through 72 hours and has just a weak low / rain into extreme Southern Florida. Now no model but the HWRF has anything of significance into Florida and we know the HWRF is normally way too enthusiastic.

I think we can all start breathing a sigh of relief. By the way GFS right now is saying "GIVE ME SOME RESPECT!" lol

[WeatherEmperor]

You guys want want to check the Models thread. The Euro is busting big time...

[gatorcane]

I was actually looking forward to some rain as it has been so dry here in my area this summer, even a mid-grade to weak TS would have been nice as the weather has been downright boring, hot, dry, and dusty most of this summer here in SE Florida.

Now I am not even sure if we will get much rain at all out of this.

Wow what is wrong with the EURO - I think it had nearly all of us fooled!

[Rail Dawg]

Funny how everyone in South Florida starts acting like all is well when those of us on the GOM coast are starting to wonder it we're going to get slammed by a major.

[SoupBone]

I'm not at all convinced that this is over, I've been in this game way too long to believe that. However, as I've watched that naked swirl dance around for the last several hours, I can't help but think that Hispaniola is at minimum living up to its name (for inhibiting storm growth). Still, I think it's a tad premature to be partying it up....