ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rickybobby]

So now that this storm is dead and those in south Fl don't have to watch it, I have to say, it was a interesting storm to track but this is the LAST time I will be fooled about some storm threatening. I'm no more going to take this seriously. I'm not a troll, just a citizen who hates spending money on something that never happens. It was nice to talk to you all.

I was ready for a hurricane party and a day off work. My neighbor is kinda crazy and every year he says he feels one coming. The wesh 2 report yesterday did it for him. He started to cover his windows with wood. Hate to tell him it's a bust.

[shortwave]

whats going on right off Jamaica, east side.

[AutoPenalti]

So now that this storm is dead and those in south Fl don't have to watch it, I have to say, it was a interesting storm to track but this is the LAST time I will be fooled about some storm threatening. I'm no more going to take this seriously. I'm not a troll, just a citizen who hates spending money on something that never happens. It was nice to talk to you all.

Oh my god.

[TropicalSailor]

whats going on right off Jamaica, east side.

The convection that 99L needs to get going? Just not in the right spot.

[W8NC4TX]

You guys want want to check the Models thread. The Euro is busting big time...

For those of us who are trying to catch updates while at work (and can only pop in now and then), what exactly does this mean? When folks say the Euro is syncing up with the GFS, what does that mean in simple terms?

[AutoPenalti]

You guys want want to check the Models thread. The Euro is busting big time...

For those of us who are trying to catch updates while at work (and can only pop in now and then), what exactly does this mean? When folks say the Euro is syncing up with the GFS, what does that mean in simple terms?

It's projecting weaker and weaker.

[alienstorm]

I would like to point out of the NE coast of DR there is a possible eddy/llc taking shape, if you look at the loop you can also see the MLC just to its south. Not sure what if anything comes out of this but it's better than the naked swirl.

[TropicalSailor]

You guys want want to check the Models thread. The Euro is busting big time...

For those of us who are trying to catch updates while at work (and can only pop in now and then), what exactly does this mean? When folks say the Euro is syncing up with the GFS, what does that mean in simple terms?

The GFS has been saying a very weak tropical low (almost nothing) traveling up the west coast or spine of FL. The Euro was much more scary. This latest run has the two a lot closer together (weak and west coast of FL)

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016



...GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...

A Gale warning continues in effect for the area northeast and east of
a broad area of low pressure analyzed as a 1008 mb low north of
Hispaniola near 21N70W. These winds are expected to continue
through early Friday morning. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 16N to 23N between 64W and 75W
including Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions have the potential to become more conducive for
tropical development and this system could become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days when the system is near
the central or northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico today, and strong winds
and heavy rainfall are likely over portions of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during
the next couple of days. These rains could lead to flash floods
and mudslides. There is a medium chance of tropical development
in the next 48 hours.

[jlauderdal]

wouldnt surprise me if both models bust now and the swirl develops...neither can be trusted with this system for at least the next 24 hours

[gatorcane]

Assuming this doesn't develop into South Florida, more fuel for the rampant complacency for those across Florida. I keep hearing "models are always wrong" and "it's not even a storm" on the radio, by friends, etc. so what is there to worry about? At some point the luck will run out and by then most probably a lot of folks won't even be paying attention.

[stormlover2013]

wouldn't surprise me if they go 30-50 next update

[LoveWeather12]

Assuming this doesn't develop into South Florida, more fuel for the rampant complacency for those across Florida. I keep hearing "models are always wrong" and "it's not even a storm" so what is there to worry about? At some point the luck will run out and by then most probably a lot of folks won't even be paying attention.

The luck will not run out. It seems we'll never get hit again and i know I'm not taking anymore hurricane threats seriously anymore. Nothing is accurate anymore. I don't want damage but I'm so done with hurricanes. FL in my view, is going to be hurricane free forever.
We were lied to, told once it gets to the Bahamas to prepare for something becaus that's where the favorable conditions. FL is hurricane free forever now!!!

[lhpfish]

Going by the storms popping up in the zone with the lighter shear, central/NW bahamas, this thing could pop if the swirl stays together.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shear seems to be following this system. Typical for systems in recent years. Shear pops up right when a system is trying to organize and even seems to follow it.

[HurriGuy]

should we pay any attention of what going on down by Jamaica? I definitely see some type of swirl

[rickybobby]

Assuming this doesn't develop into South Florida, more fuel for the rampant complacency for those across Florida. I keep hearing "models are always wrong" and "it's not even a storm" on the radio, by friends, etc. so what is there to worry about? At some point the luck will run out and by then most probably a lot of folks won't even be paying attention.

True but I hate the hype by the media. Yesterday wesh 2 was at a Home Depot asking a worker if people were buying extra batteries and water for the potential system coming to central Florida. This morning they were at publix if people were buying can food and water. I trust people here more than the media.

[gatorcane]

Yes shear is a problem (though should be easing up over the next 24 hours) but I think dry air is a big issue right now. You can see it squashing the entire NW side of the system.

[Cuda17]

Nice tracking of the naked swirl:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[tarheelprogrammer]

should we pay any attention of what going on down by Jamaica? I definitely see some type of swirl

Probably another ULL. At least it appears it could be.