ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

More passing lines of showers continue to spread on us. Seems that it's only a first round because of the most of the heavy patches of showers tstorms are scheluded for tonight and especially tommorow. Healthy 97L is approaching Guadeloupe, be sure about that. I will keep your informed as usual.
Gustywind.

Thanks for the updates, Gusty! Much appreciated.

No problem Abajan my friend ! We continue to monitor closely this strong twave.

[TheStormExpert]

1008mb low @ 144hrs. in the middle of the BoC.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble by Day 9 have 97L somewhere between Tampico and South Texas...will be interesting what the ECMWF Ensembles show!

[Siker]

Peak on the 12z HWRF:

[JaxGator]

Imo, if it wasn't for the fast speed, it would be probably be a TS but regardless, 97L is organizing nicely.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016



Tropical wave extends from 12N53W to 22N52W moving W at 25-30 kt.
The wave coincides with a relatively broad and amplified 700 mb
trough between 48W-60W and copious deep layer moisture noted in
SSMI Total Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer
data also indicates associated surface troughing with a relatively
large area of fresh to strong trades generally from 14N-23N
between 49W-62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-20N
between 52W-63W...including portions of the Lesser Antilles. As
this wave moves W during the next several days...the strong trades
accompanied by potentially higher gusts will move across the far
northern Caribbean Sea waters and the SW North Atlc waters north
of the Greater Antilles and waters surrounding the Turks and
Caicos...SE Bahamas...and eastern and central Cuba creating
hazardous boating conditions.

[Javlin]

Getting that look for sure and while moving at a good clip hmnnn.....

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12zECMWF has a 1006mb Low landfall just north of Tampico by next Saturday.

[sunnyday]

Amazing how it generally misses Florida any more in spite of the state looking most vulnerable......

[Gustywind]

Imo, if it wasn't for the fast speed, it would be probably be a TS but regardless, 97L is organizing nicely.

You're right about the fast motion thanks to that. But we never know too... BUT sometimes mother Nature has surprises in store. Hope that this very strong twave stays a strong twave and not a TD or more. Anyway, we continue us in Guadeloupe to follow closely the situation. Looks like 97L should bring bad weather conditions beginning at least tonight or at last tommorow morning.

[AtlanticWind]

Gfdl takes it thru Yucatan channel

[JaxGator]

Imo, if it wasn't for the fast speed, it would be probably be a TS but regardless, 97L is organizing nicely.

You're right about the fast motion thanks to that. But we never know too... BUT sometimes mother Nature has surprises in store. Hope that this very strong twave stays a strong twave and not a TD or more. Anyway, we continue us in Guadeloupe to follow closely the situation. Looks like 97L should bring bad weather conditions beginning at least tonight or at last tommorow morning.

I agree. Stay safe and thanks for the updates!

[stormlover2013]

Still plenty of time, glad this gives us something to do

[AtlanticWind]

The usually bullish CMC doesn't show development.

I am sure we will have a storm now

[MGC]

Mid level circulation getting better organized, but since 97L is trucking along it will be difficult for a surface circulation to form. We'll know tomorrow when 97L blows through the islands. Rain and gusty winds for the Leewards tomorrow. I'd expect nothing to form at the surface till 97L gets past Hispaniola and the Western Caribbean does its magic......MGC

[Hammy]

The usually bullish CMC doesn't show development.

I am sure we will have a storm now

Euro is weaker than GFS (but usually is) and is in agreement with GFS on track/timing so it seems Tampico vicinity is the most likely outcome at the moment. CMC can probably be scrapped on this run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

If 97L finds the UL environment that the GFS is showing then I personally feel like a 150 mph storm is not out of the question. Of course it is my opinion and not one of a MET.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Still think this may end up a little further north than the models are indicating right now
just based on where a circulation may be forming.

[Disclaimer]Not a professional Met

I think this as well. This is weather channels spahgetti models which has a couple going more north

[Florida1118]

If 97L finds the UL environment that the GFS is showing then I personally feel like a 150 mph storm is not out of the question. Of course it is my opinion and not one of a MET.

I would say it most definitely is out of the question. It's questionable if this even gets classified at some point, let alone approaches Category 5.

[RL3AO]

There has not been a hurricane in August in the Caribbean since 2012. For any system to find a favorable environment there is a big change from the last few years.