
ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Well the way I see it, it could go anywhere from Central America to east of Bermuda. (Just to narrow it down a little bit) 

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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Id be willing to bet that the 18Z run will show something completely different. There is over a 1000 mile difference between the 6z and 12z GFS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Ok I think I will narrow it down now that we have had several models. It looks like to me that there will be a tropical storm or Cat 3 hurricane strike the conus somewhere between Tx and the Carolinas. Hope that helps.
Oh yea, I almost forgot, we will have plenty of time to think about it. Stock up on the xanax.

Oh yea, I almost forgot, we will have plenty of time to think about it. Stock up on the xanax.
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- p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
I wonder why the GFS gets picked on so much 

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GFS seeing favorable conditions as 99L arrives near the E Caribbean and 99L likely would have been stronger on the 12z if it didn't rake all the islands... Kind of a Georges type track...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GFS taking strong winds toward Canada. Reminds me of the reports from Hazel. Moving so fast it did not weaken much until it was in Canada. Hopefully not the case but interesting comparison there on that run.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
This far out would prefer the GFS to show South Florida as a target knowing that it would change as we got closer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The last euro run to do anything with this wave in the Caribbean was the Monday 12Z run.

Tuesday 12Z dropped it in favor of developing the next wave and sending it NW quickly. The GFS started to develop this wave right when the Euro dropped it.

Tuesday 12Z dropped it in favor of developing the next wave and sending it NW quickly. The GFS started to develop this wave right when the Euro dropped it.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Blown Away wrote:GFS seeing favorable conditions as 99L arrives near the E Caribbean and 99L likely would have been stronger on the 12z if it didn't rake all the islands... Kind of a Georges type track...
Not the same as this is hugging the south coast of PR and the eye of Georges moved thru the spine of the island.

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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Ensemble support is there.
12z GEFS at hour 198:

12z GEFS at hour 198:

Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Blown Away wrote:GFS seeing favorable conditions as 99L arrives near the E Caribbean and 99L likely would have been stronger on the 12z if it didn't rake all the islands... Kind of a Georges type track...
Not the same as this is hugging the south coast of PR and the eye of Georges moved thru the spine of the island.
Post-peak storm as well, though it shared similarities with other storms that fit the current climatology in place. Frederic, for example.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models


12z...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Living just 10 miles East of Destin that GFS run just gave me heartburn! LOL
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- Blown Away
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

JB tweeting about 99L being a threat to CONUS... Predicting not much development until in close, which is in line with his season forecast...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The trend is the thing to watch here--track is now further west (meaning as others pointed out the models over the last few days were overdoing the western Atlantic troughing) but also doesn't strengthen quite as quickly in the eastern Caribbean--the trend is slowly moving towards the Euro, and if that still does not develop it in the next few runs, it's indicative of a system that simply won't develop.
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- p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Hammy wrote:The trend is the thing to watch here--track is now further west (meaning as others pointed out the models over the last few days were overdoing the western Atlantic troughing) but also doesn't strengthen quite as quickly in the eastern Caribbean--the trend is slowly moving towards the Euro, and if that still does not develop it in the next few runs, it's indicative of a system that simply won't develop.
I think that's fair. I also believe that 99L at the current is a mess and being a large wave will take longer to get anything going. The models that already had it as a hurricane before nearing the Antilles/Winwards were bullish from the start imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Do not look at the individual members of the 12Z GEFS if you don't want to see a threat to the SE US, especially FL.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Hammy wrote:The trend is the thing to watch here--track is now further west (meaning as others pointed out the models over the last few days were overdoing the western Atlantic troughing) but also doesn't strengthen quite as quickly in the eastern Caribbean--the trend is slowly moving towards the Euro, and if that still does not develop it in the next few runs, it's indicative of a system that simply won't develop.
It did develop the wave for a few runs but then it dropped it and the GFS starting developing 99L afterwards. Why? I don't know but you're right about the trends.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
12z GEFS Ensembles trending west and clustering together a little more in the Northern Bahamas in 10 days.




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