ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

I'll wait and see what the Euro says tonight and what 99L does through Saturday before throwing in the towel. However, I do think the anti-cyclone overhead was key for it to develop stronger before Florida. Now, it's south of it. Just an opinion anyways.

[PTrackerLA]

Just look how bad the MIMIC TPW looks now. The once robust and huge circulation got really flattened out yesterday and now the center of the moisture circ looks to be between Cuba and Haiti. Not surprised the models seem to be dropping development.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[shortwave]

one thing also to note on large scale 1km vis imagery loop you can see cumulus starting to pop more ahead of the system in the vicinity of the central Bahamas and westward.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768819017695932416




In case we forgot this from this morning...if we see this continue at 18z and 00z, then we might be able to believe that it might not develop.

[SoupBone]

should we pay any attention of what going on down by Jamaica? I definitely see some type of swirl

Can you link it?

[TropicalSailor]

should we pay any attention of what going on down by Jamaica? I definitely see some type of swirl

Can you link it?

Best thing going right now...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

[Gustywind]

Total amateur opinion here and a long time lurker, but is it possible that most of the moisture and convection is being held south by the terrain of Hispanola? Just an observation.

The convection has been getting blown off by shear. Think of it like 99L is getting a haircut... a pretty nasty one at that..

Invest 99phiL

:hehe : Impressive is an euphemisma! T hat's a cat 5 haircut style Do you want the adress of my hairdresser? 99L

[Hurricane Alexis]

That's what happens when people focus too much on what the models are showing. During the last week, the Miami NWS vaguely mentioned 99l. They went as far as saying to stay tuned in case it actually developed. No hype was instilled by any reputable weather organization. You can't just give up on the idea of ever preparing for a storm based on a couple of busts in recent years. Also, during the timeframe between Frederic and Andrew only a series of weak storms traversed through south Florida, similar to how it's been now since Wilma.

[RL3AO]

EVERYONE: Keep the discussion about 99L. Not what may or may not ever happen again in the future.

[tarheelprogrammer]

LLC seems to be dying currently not as vigorous as it was earlier.

The spin near DR looks like MLC.

[N2FSU]

Funny how everyone in South Florida starts acting like all is well when those of us on the GOM coast are starting to wonder it we're going to get slammed by a major.

I have to agree. It seems some people think if it doesn't hit South Florida then it's not affecting anyone! I certainly don't think a major hurricane looks likely where I'm at in Tallahassee, but even a strong Tropical Storm would wreak havoc up here with all of the trees we have. I was a freshman at FSU in 1985 when Kate came through with just TS force winds and thousands were without power for 1-2 weeks. Luckily the intensity looks to be trending downward, but there is still a lot of time left for things to play out.

[psyclone]

Busy times at the NNSC (national naked swirl center). On a slightly more serious note we have a brisk northeast breeze here that actually feels quite nice so the gradient must be tightening a bit. And...believe it or not we actually need some rain. non irrigated grass is showing dry stress...unheard of in what is typically the wettest month of the year.

[Hurricaneman]

It has a very vigorous swirl, if it can get convection and not be sheared off it could be off to the races, and I for one am not giving up on this for 2 reasons, downplaying can be dangerous especially if the shear drops, and conditions can change fairly quickly so it is unwise to say it won't develop because it still has a vigorous swirl

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Gustywind]

Strong decreasing numbers for 99L...

25/1745 UTC 21.4N 72.3W TOO WEAK 99L
25/1145 UTC 21.0N 70.6W T1.5/2.0 99L

[SoupBone]

LLC seems to be dying currently not as vigorous as it was earlier.

The spin near DR looks like MLC.

Is it just me or is that swirl heading almost due west toward Cuba? It doesn't look like it's gaining much latitude.

[Hurricaneman]

LLC seems to be dying currently not as vigorous as it was earlier.

The spin near DR looks like MLC.

Is it just me or is that swirl heading almost due west toward Cuba? It doesn't look like it's gaining much latitude.

seems to be, but this could redevelop a center in the convection if that happens

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[AutoPenalti]

A new LLC could form under that convection couldn't it?

[Hurricaneman]

It may not landfall in Cuba, but may be heading for the Florida straits

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Aric Dunn]

A new LLC could form under that convection couldn't it?

What convection ?

[AdamFirst]

A new LLC could form under that convection couldn't it?

What convection ?

The blob north of the Dominican Republic. Mid-level swirl is underneath there.