ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

A new LLC could form under that convection couldn't it?

What convection ?

I think he means the area of convection ENE of Hispaniola

[SouthFLTropics]

I think 99L's best days may be behind it. Yesterday looked promising for its future but that small sliver of shear to the north of PR and Hispaniola wouldn't give it a break. It just goes to show how difficult it is for all of the variables to come into place for a storm to form and thrive. It makes it that much more special when you do get to see them fall into place and watch genesis take place.

[SeGaBob]

I see storms firing in the Bahamas...probably doesn't mean much though.

[Aric Dunn]

A new LLC could form under that convection couldn't it?

What convection ?

I think he means the area of convection ENE of Hispaniola

would have to be a whole lot more convection than that to do anything.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I'm seeing a spin at around 18.5 and 69.5 currently over the DR. This would be right in the middle of the large moisture envelope and the upper level high that is still intact. Is it possible that the naked swirl which has no upper level or convective support spins itself out and a new LLC forms in where the support is? Seems it would obviously struggle until the system clears the DR but after that who knows?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[TheStormExpert]

And the magic shear sweeps in to save the day! Seriously is this an El Niño Atlantic? I mean here we are August 25th tracking a dying naked swirl moving west in the vicinity of the Southeast Bahamas, doesn't get anymore pathetic than that I'd say!

[TheStormExpert]

I think 99L's best days may be behind it. Yesterday looked promising for its future but that small sliver of shear to the north of PR and Hispaniola wouldn't give it a break. It just goes to show how difficult it is for all of the variables to come into place for a storm to form and thrive. It makes it that much more special when you do get to see them fall into place and watch genesis take place.

I'd say it's best days were WAY behind it, back when it was first designated in the Eastern Atlantic.

[TropicalSailor]

Does it seem like the swirl is coming back to life a little bit and getting ready to close back in on the SE corner just here in the past 10-15 minutes? I can't help but feel like this thing just needs to get passed Little Inagua Island.

[N2FSU]

Can it hold on long enough to escape the shear?

[cdavis6287]

I'll give it till 11pm to be on the safe side but it looks like this is going to "models wrong once again, invest heaven". Don't see it sparking up in the gulf either given the ridge. Might get some rain in SFL and west coast of Fl.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can it hold on long enough to escape the shear?

Shear just keeps increasing along its path. Every new map places more shear around it and the future path of it.

[johngaltfla]

If you look at the latest loop, you can see a naked swirl between the Turks and Caicos and Grand Inagua in the Bahamas. Whether it has time to reorganize are not is the wild card. The overnight TWO will be fascinating.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... 9L?map=sat

[OuterBanker]

Yep, Euro has caved. Pretty much a TS into panhandle, out at Ga and out to sea. Never makes much of it.

[Aric Dunn]

Can it hold on long enough to escape the shear?

Shear just keeps increasing along its path. Every new map places more shear around it and the future path of it.

This is because its not winds in the mid or upper levels that are causing the majority of the shear. reason it keeps moving with it is because its forward motion ( low level flow) is the culprit it needs to slow down more. i.e in a strange way self induced shear

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Does it seem like the swirl is coming back to life a little bit and getting ready to close back in on the SE corner just here in the past 10-15 minutes? I can't help but feel like this thing just needs to get passed Little Inagua Island.

The little naked fellow seems to be packing a punch that is for sure. Maybe when it moves beyond that dry air zone it is presently encountering, it will begin to take shape. I'm thinking that if I were in the Fl. Keys, I''d keep a close eye on this one for sure. Just guessing my life away; I know nothing about weather systems.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can it hold on long enough to escape the shear?

Shear just keeps increasing along its path. Every new map places more shear around it and the future path of it.

Exactly! I agree so much with this. Its always something unexpected coming into play.

[shortwave]

wonder if wake turbulence from the islands may aid in convective development. looks like another 24 hrs before a more favorable environment. Very glad for that dry air and moderate shear.

[SoupBone]

Can it hold on long enough to escape the shear?

Depends on where it hits Cuba. Cuba does have some mountainous terrain. It's obviously no Hispaniola.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can it hold on long enough to escape the shear?

Shear just keeps increasing along its path. Every new map places more shear around it and the future path of it.

This is because its not winds in the mid or upper levels that are causing the majority of the shear. reason it keeps moving with it is because its forward motion ( low level flow) is the culprit it needs to slow down more. i.e in a strange way self induced shear

According to Dr. Klotzbach it is just shear.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/768883666042793984

[TheStormExpert]

Can it hold on long enough to escape the shear?

I don't see how Gaston is going to survive when 99L couldn't survive what little bit it went through.