ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Shear just keeps increasing along its path. Every new map places more shear around it and the future path of it.

This is because its not winds in the mid or upper levels that are causing the majority of the shear. reason it keeps moving with it is because its forward motion ( low level flow) is the culprit it needs to slow down more. i.e in a strange way self induced shear

According to Dr. Klotzbach it is just shear.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/768883666042793984

so shear is shear. I was trying to point out that its not the "winds" per se its its forward motion relative the directional motion above it. most of the time you have a relatively slower system with opposing directional winds as you go up. in this case the mid and upper level winds are not all that high. its the relative motion of itself vs the column above it.

[artist]

From Eric Blake, NHC, falling shear numbers

[SeGaBob]

I'd like to know what wxman57 thinks about this...

[bg1]

Yep, Euro has caved. Pretty much a TS into panhandle, out at Ga and out to sea. Never makes much of it.

When in doubt, and it's a threat, side with the least aggressive model?? This is a reversal of what happened with Joaquin.

[RL3AO]

It's getting sheared because it's north of the anticylone that the Euro had sitting over it in past runs.

[seatrump]

3.30pm update from TCI.

Pressure has fallen gradually, now at 29.77 (1008mb). Wind from the south at 19kts, gusts to 24kts. Most cloudy but no rain so far today. It's 32c with humidity of 94% but the breeze makes it feel pleasant. Lots of clouds but no showers visible at pesent.
https://www.wunderground.com/webcams/Zray/1/show.html

[TimeZone]

I've officially given up on 99L. Next.

[TropicalSailor]

I've officially given up on 99L. Next.

Not over yet

[RL3AO]

Follow up, the GFS has absolutely nailed the anti-cyclone retreating into the northern Caribbean and therefore inducing shear because of the upper level westerlies to the north of a high.

[SoupBone]

I'd like to know what wxman57 thinks about this...

I'll paraphrase. Anywhere from Brownsville to New York as a Category 5 or a small band of thundershowers.

[SeGaBob]

Might have to stop calling it "Future Hermine" and just call it "Never Hermine"

By the way I was in the development camp but now i'm split 50-50 either way.

[gatorcane]

another thing about the models is that it seemed this wouldn't be to South Florida until around Monday then the time-frame moved to Sunday and now this naked swirl could be passing South Florida's latitude even sooner than that. So it seems the models underestimated how quick this would move.

[StormHunter72]

Follow up, the GFS has absolutely nailed the anti-cyclone retreating into the northern Caribbean and therefore inducing shear because of the upper level westerlies to the north of a high.

That is what I said yesterday in laymans terms.

[Tireman4]

I'd like to know what wxman57 thinks about this...

I'll paraphrase. Anywhere from Brownsville to New York as a Category 5 or a small band of thundershowers.

Actually he said from Bermuda to Port Arthur, Texas is in play..scroll back...

[alan1961]

about an hour ago



almost the latest image, looks better to me, a little more convection wrapping round the center.

[RL3AO]

^^^

If you can see the center at this stage, then it isn't doing any better.

[SeGaBob]

I mean what does he think now is what I'd like to know.

[StormHunter72]

I'd like to know what wxman57 thinks about this...

I'll paraphrase. Anywhere from Brownsville to New York as a Category 5 or a small band of thundershowers.

Actually he said from Bermuda to Port Arthur, Texas is in play..scroll back...

days ago

[Tireman4]

I mean what does he think now is what I'd like to know.

Do not worry. He will chime in probably with his clients. or riding his bike in the ran.lol

[SSB]

Hostile shear definitely appears to be the main culprit for lack of development, but there's also a nice wedge of dry air just to the north and west of 99L that isn't helping matters either. Water vapor loop:

http://i.imgur.com/Plz1mhF.gifv