ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

The eddy is embedded in the easterlies with the strong high to the north, and it's already passed the Turks and soon to be SE of Nassau, and hopefully SE of here by the morning (ahead of schedule, if the eddy survives), and really there is little else left of 99...

Many forget meteorology is like most other sciences - an inexact science, based on many things, and often does not take into account other things - some seen, others unseen...

P.S. Yesterday was the 24th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew - had Andrew stayed a swirl, my life would be endlessly different (I probably would have been married many years, but the disaster caused me to move away from the area and the friends I knew well at the time)...

[StormHunter72]

Am I the only one not surprised by this at this point? I thought conditions were predicted by most of the models over the last couple of days to be pretty poor/borderline for any development until tomorrow afternoon. Shear was going to be an issue as well as proximity to land. It wasn't going to be until the circulation (or whatever it almost is) could get a little north of the islands and get closer to the Bahamas before any strengthening was going to be able to happen. However, if it could avoid the islands and maintain a circulation structure, it had a good chance of rapid intensification once over the warm waters and in a more conducive synoptic environment. Real strengthening wasn't really going to kick in until Sunday I thought. I wouldn't be surprised to see some DMax popping tonight and that nekkid swirl starting to put on some clothes. People should not dismiss this yet and ignore it over the weekend, especially if along the Gulf Coast.

chances are waining

[Aric Dunn]

and we have landfall ! lol

[davidiowx]

and we have landfall ! lol

I was just about to post the same type of comment.

[Sanibel]

I'd like to brag that my negative prognosis yesterday was proven correct but this could still be a Gulf late-bloomer. All we can do is watch to see if the naked swirl maintains enough energy to refire in the GOM.


Disclaimer: I am not a professional meteorologist. For all serious information regarding any tropical system please refer to official weather sources.

[TropicalSailor]

1006.6mb Pressure in the spin and looks like a peak of about 20 Knots

[Aric Dunn]

there is not even a wind shift there lol. that swirl is ahead of the wave axis wind shift should come east of the swirl.. .......................

[JPmia]

That swirl is heading toward the Cuban coast.. it probably won't be around for much longer I imagine. The way I see it, this thing is done unless it reforms near the other convection.

[AutoPenalti]

and we have landfall ! lol

Wait what? Lol

[rickybobby]

Does Florida have a wall around the state or something?

[ROCK]

That swirl is heading toward the Cuban coast.. it probably won't be around for much longer I imagine. The way I see it, this thing is done unless it reforms near the other convection.

yeah made a hard west turn...heading towards Cuba now...reminds me of Chris 07 poof!!

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a litte eddy/vort is developing on the south side of that bigger island its over right now.

[Aric Dunn]

wind shift is quite a good distance from the center of that swirl. which means the swirl is above the altitude of the plane and if any convection forms it will likely be in associating with the wave axis/wind shift east of the swirl

[Dean4Storms]

There is still a good deal of rotation going on over northern half of Hispaniola and still a lot of energy there on PW imagery with MIMIC-TPW, I wouldn't walk away thinking this is toast yet. It might end up being a dud for South Florida but the Keys and the Gulf are still at play if you ask me.

[JPmia]

Who's in charge of bringing out Bones? Just so we all know our roles and responsibilities.

[gatorcane]

There is still a good deal of rotation going on over northern half of Hispaniola and still a lot of energy there on PW imagery with MIMIC-TPW, I wouldn't walk away thinking this is toast yet. It might end up being a dud for South Florida but the Keys and the Gulf are still at play if you ask me.

The 18Z NAM (see models thread) is developing this vort, not the one everybody is tracking that is already into the Bahamas.

[bg1]

Does Florida have a wall around the state or something?

Even Hawaii is impressed right now.

[Tireman4]

That swirl is heading toward the Cuban coast.. it probably won't be around for much longer I imagine. The way I see it, this thing is done unless it reforms near the other convection.

yeah made a hard west turn...heading towards Cuba now...reminds me of Chris 07 poof!!

Oh yeah. I remember him. The nakked swirl that traversed the waters with 100 pages of discussion..lol..at least it is not Don...lol

[Aric Dunn]

There is still a good deal of rotation going on over northern half of Hispaniola and still a lot of energy there on PW imagery with MIMIC-TPW, I wouldn't walk away thinking this is toast yet. It might end up being a dud for South Florida but the Keys and the Gulf are still at play if you ask me.

The 18Z NAM (see models thread) is developing this vort, not the one everybody is tracking that is already into the Bahamas.

not surprising. the data from recon the few missions obviously changed it since there is nothing with the swirl all the energy is still with the wave axis and is east of swirl.

[Nimbus]

So there still may be a broad area of low surface pressure spinning around.
Storms in the past under ideal conditions have exploded in the Bahamas and near Florida but with a shallow pressure gradient and a large existing vorticity they don't usually seem to spin up very fast.
Katrina was a pathetic looking sub depression at one point north of the islands, but her low surface pressure was focused over a small area.

Recon numbers don't keep a running log of surface pressures and report them back to a secret island do they?