ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TropicalSailor]

Dropsonde 90 miles W of 99L center is showing fair low level moisture - convection firing overnight?

[RL3AO]

Dropsonde 90 miles W of 99L center is showing fair low level moisture - convection firing overnight?

Low level moisture is one of the few issues 99l isn't dealing with right now.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

So there still may be a broad area of low surface pressure spinning around.
Storms in the past under ideal conditions have exploded in the Bahamas and near Florida but with a shallow pressure gradient and a large existing vorticity they don't usually seem to spin up very fast.
Katrina was a pathetic looking sub depression at one point north of the islands, but her low surface pressure was focused over a small area.


Recon numbers don't keep a running log of surface pressures and report them back to a secret island do they?

I was about to say i very vividly remember watching the weather channel in 05 and hearing about one or two of them that struggled pretty bad near hispaniola and cuba i was gonna ask about this earlier just wasnt sure but your post just jogged my memory forgot that it was Katrina.

[StormHunter72]

So there still may be a broad area of low surface pressure spinning around.
Storms in the past under ideal conditions have exploded in the Bahamas and near Florida but with a shallow pressure gradient and a large existing vorticity they don't usually seem to spin up very fast.
Katrina was a pathetic looking sub depression at one point north of the islands, but her low surface pressure was focused over a small area.


Recon numbers don't keep a running log of surface pressures and report them back to a secret island do they?

I was about to say i very vividly remember watching the weather channel in 05 and hearing about one or two of them that struggled pretty bad near hispaniola and cuba i was gonna ask about this earlier just wasnt sure but your post just jogged my memory forgot that it was Katrina.

not even close to compare.

[gatorcane]

Any chance we have been tracking the wrong vorticity (the one in the Bahamas) all day? Wouldn't that be something and the real one could be further east over/near Hispaniola.

[tolakram]

What model was this that had the LLC going into Cuba?

[jlauderdal]

Who's in charge of bringing out Bones? Just so we all know our roles and responsibilities.

wxman57 is in charge of bones

[SeGaBob]

Any chance we have been tracking the wrong vorticity (the one in the Bahamas) all day and the one that could bring genesis has yet to form? Wouldn't that be something...

Good point there

[HurriGuy]

If the naked LLC wasn't there, what would we be saying? It would still be a strong tropical wave, right? I think we would be locked onto it.

I only say that because the more I look behind the vorticity we have been looking at all day, the more intrigued I am.

[gatorcane]

Saved vis loop, the rotation over the northern coast of the Dominican Republic is looking interesting, though at the mid-levels, might it work to the surface as it heads NW?

[Aric Dunn]

If the naked LLC wasn't there, what would we be saying? It would still be a strong tropical wave, right? I think we would be locked onto it.

I only say that because the more I look behind the vorticity we have been looking at all day, the more intrigued I am.

yeah recon has shown us multiple times now the wave axis is east of the swirl and not a surface circ. its not as far east as DR. if convection fires it will be from the wave axis/windshift

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/768909120837517312

[JaxGator]

If the naked LLC wasn't there, what would we be saying? It would still be a strong tropical wave, right? I think we would be locked onto it.

I only say that because the more I look behind the vorticity we have been looking at all day, the more intrigued I am.

yeah recon has shown us multiple times now the wave axis is east of the swirl and not a surface circ. its not as far east as DR. if convection fires it will be from the wave axis/windshift

Thank you for the info Aric. A new center possible along the wave axis?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Might be an LLC forming to the east in the blow up of clouds above Hisp.

[TropicalSailor]

If the naked LLC wasn't there, what would we be saying? It would still be a strong tropical wave, right? I think we would be locked onto it.

I only say that because the more I look behind the vorticity we have been looking at all day, the more intrigued I am.

yeah recon has shown us multiple times now the wave axis is east of the swirl and not a surface circ. its not as far east as DR. if convection fires it will be from the wave axis/windshift

Thank you for info Aric. A new center possible along the wave axis?

Original center just plowing the road for the new center to explode? Geez

[gatorcane]

Might be an LLC forming to the east in the blow up of clouds above Hisp.

Some kind of swirl is there but probably just mid-level and eyes playing tricks on me!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[Aric Dunn]

yeah recon has shown us multiple times now the wave axis is east of the swirl and not a surface circ. its not as far east as DR. if convection fires it will be from the wave axis/windshift

Thank you for info Aric. A new center possible along the wave axis?

Original center just plowing the road for the new center to explode? Geez

first things first.. you need convection to any of this.,...

[jlauderdal]

Any chance we have been tracking the wrong vorticity (the one in the Bahamas) all day and the one that could bring genesis has yet to form? Wouldn't that be something...

Good point there

it has a history of popping convection at night and then getting sheared off the following day...if it pops convection tonight and shear is supposedly on the decrease then tomorrow we might have something as the models have been saying all long...just because the euro on one rain caves to the gfs doesnt make it right...the system itself is about where we would have expected it to be as far back as monday..nhc must feel the same way or it owuldnt be at 70...that said they could drop to 50 at 8 but lets see

[idaknowman]

I have seen several references to a certain 'hour time'. For example - at 132 hours.

What exactly does that mean, and when does hour 1 start?

[floridasun78]

Who's in charge of bringing out Bones? Just so we all know our roles and responsibilities.

wx weatherman