From my good buddy:
Meterologist in Houston
Good afternoon everyone,
I hope your Thursday is going well. We are just a couple of days from the weekend. So this email will not be quite as lengthy as yesterday's as many of you are thinking "thank goodness." HA! Anyway, here are the trends we have seen today along with my thoughts over the next couple of days as well.
The tropical disturbance out there is very poorly defined as you can see on visible satellite imagery. Now keep in mind, if you look at this link later tonight when it is dark, you will not see what I am seeing now, however if you do view it by 6-7 PM central time, you will see what I am talking about below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif Do not pay any attention to the cloud cover along the Dominican Republic and Hispaniola. This is associated with the disturbance but due to the 40-50 knots of shear (inhibiting development) affecting this system, the activity is being displaced from the center. Notice the little swirl north of the islands in the image above.
The other factor not allowing it to develop is the dry air. The water vapor which is the link below shows dry air (orange color) just west of the disturbance which also inhibits development. There is still quite a bit of shear and dry air ahead of this thing and it will need to rally big time for it to develop before making the Bahamas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif Many of the model runs have shifted further west during the day and this goes with my thinking from yesterday as the ridge of high pressure (what steers the system) sits across the southeast United States. This will be strong enough to push it west into the eastern and eventually the central Gulf of Mexico.
The strength of this thing could vary from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane. Like I mentioned yesterday, predicting the magnitude of a tropical system is nearly impossible. The conditions will be ripe for prime strengthening across the Gulf of Mexico but what matters is how long is stays over the waters.
So my thoughts and where I still feel will strike are below...
The disturbance will remain an open wave until it reaches the Bahamas, it will strengthen into either a depression of Tropical Storm where it would become Hemine. It will either clip the southern tip of Florida or make it through the Florida Straits. It will continue on a west to northwestward track into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will still hold strong. After that, is really up in the air to whether it continues west towards the Texas/Louisiana coastline, the central coast or the Florida panhandle. As for the strength of this storm, it is really hard to say at this time.
Here are my thoughts for the FINAL LANDFALL:
Brownsville to Matagorda Bay, TX - Less than 5%
(Late week to Labor Day weekend)
Matagorda Bay to Sabine Pass, TX - 20-30%
(Late week to Labor Day weekend)
Sabine Pass, TX to New Orleans, LA - 20-30%
(Late week)
New Orleans, LA to Panama City, FL - 30-40%
(Mid week)
Panama City to Tampa, FL - 10-20%
(Early to mid week)
On many of the TV stations you will see the spaghetti plots that have really become popular over the past few years. I will not show them for a couple of reasons; first, when a "storm" hasn't formed yet, it is hard for weather models to focus on an actual center, and secondly when a person sees one plot heading their way, they instantly think it is going to affect them. When and if something does form, I am fine (for the most part) with showing those plots. Ok, I am off my soap box...sorry...
There are three things I look at when looking at the track of a tropical system: historical tracks, upper pattern and my gut. Sounds crazy but these are the factors I look at and they have helped me become a better forecaster because of it.
IR imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif I will continue to provide updates each evening through the rest of the week and into the weekend. If many of you want this sent to your personal emails versus work emails during the weekend because you don't check them, please let me know. Also, if there is anyone else who wants to receive these emails, also shoot me a quick message and I will add them to the list.
As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Nathan_Weather where I also provide updates, retweets, other pertinent information as well.
I hope everyone has a great Thursday and Friday. I will try to have an update out to you all tomorrow afternoon before leaving for work for the weekend. Enjoy!
Nathan
This is a pain in the butt to track as an operational forecaster.
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