ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Why is this a surprise for some? This basin has failed time and time again to produce a Bonied TC in centuries. That's a good thing but just saying. The planets must align.

[bella_may]

I appreciate the optimism in here but it's a little irresponsible, especially from some of the mets in here, to say this is done when that's far from the truth. I'll listen to the nhc

[ConvergenceZone]

Not done. Some of you obviously didn't watch the NBA finals

I guess it's like they say, never say you can't win the lottery, because it can happen, but probably doubtful

[RL3AO]

It's unquestionably worse than it was 24 or 48 hours ago, but it's still August 25th and likely has a favorable environment ahead including a few days over the GOM. It still has me a little nervous.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Never say never with the tropics. I can't remember how many times a disturbance has looked pathetic only to come roaring back to life. I'm not saying 99L is going to get off life support but the possibility exits......MGC

Or on the opposite side how many systems over the last several years have had a ton of model support and nhc giving them code red in the long term only to go poof just like this. Remember an invest just like this in the south central gulf that did absolutely nothing and was pegged to be a major by models and nhc.

[HurriGuy]

It's unquestionably worse than it was 24 or 48 hours ago, but it's still August 25th and likely has a favorable environment ahead including a few days over the GOM. It still has me a little nervous.

Exactly. Makes me more nervous than I was earlier today seeing the model guidance drift further south. Any wave in the Gulf should be taken seriously. Yes I understand it has to get there first.

[stormhunter7]

Something happened to cause that deep convection in the purple to fire. However there are some or two storms towers going up just SE of the L on this image. I had to zoom in to see the mid level winds (yellow) if you look closely you can see them.

[HurriGuy]

Even though convection is forming right on the edge of the circulation, I still expect it to run into Cuba. Not seeing any northerly movement

[psyclone]

I appreciate the optimism in here but it's a little irresponsible, especially from some of the mets in here, to say this is done when that's far from the truth. I'll listen to the nhc

I think you'll be hearing the NHC steadily lowering chances over time. the probability pool doesn't drain instantaneously but the plug has been pulled and chances are lowering.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I will admit I was nervous earlier in the week when when the euro was having its mega meltdown and it kept showing a major between lake Charles and mobile. But now not concerned one bit.

[JaxGator]

Why is this a surprise for some? This basin has failed time and time again to produce a Bonied TC in centuries. That's a good thing but just saying. The planets must align.

That's a figure of speech right? Centuries? Never say never till it's gone. Though some want to see a nice storm, it's positive that hopefully, it won't affect Florida as bad as previously forecast. However, that's when people get complacent as well sometimes.

[Aric Dunn]

Also everyone notice the "shear"/mid and upper level wind direction has changed from wsw to a straight south.. could be advecting mid and upper level moisture northward could be helpful in getting some more convection going.

[HurriGuy]

Also everyone notice the "shear"/mid and upper level wind direction has changed from wsw to a straight south.. could be advecting mid and upper level moisture northward could be helpful in getting some more convection going.

Yeah it is getting away from majority of the mountains and a southerly inflow looks to be marginally in place providing some more moist air to help aid it fight against the semi-dry air to the WNW.

[windnrain]

Question for the seasoned pros - if 99l comes back, would it be the biggest comeback you've ever seen? Have you ever seen a wave look worse then come back?

[MississippiWx]

Something happened to cause that deep convection in the purple to fire. However there are some or two storms towers going up just SE of the L on this image. I had to zoom in to see the mid level winds (yellow) if you look closely you can see them.

I wouldn't be too optimistic about that one thunderstorm going up in the SE part of the "center". That is a rather large island and it is more than likely land-based convection due to peak heating and a little infuence from the vort max passing overhead. Will most likely die with the sunset.

[TimeZone]

Bring out Bones.

[Javlin]

Well if appears that Vort is going over Cuba and it's flat......http://en-ca.topographic-map.com/places/Cuba-945553/

[Aric Dunn]

[img]https://s11.postimg.org/q1reniof7/edit1.png[/ig]


Something happened to cause that deep convection in the purple to fire. However there are some or two storms towers going up just SE of the L on this image. I had to zoom in to see the mid level winds (yellow) if you look closely you can see them.

I wouldn't be too optimistic about that one thunderstorm going up in the SE part of the "center". That is a rather large island and it is more than likely land-based convection due to peak heating and a little infuence from the vort max passing overhead. Will most likely die with the sunset.

agreed its likely land based however could be the spark it broke through dry boundary layer.. we shall see. the wave axis primed and ready whenever convection can develop and become wide spread enough..

[floridasun78]

i watching area east of Bahamas storms been growing past few hours

[mcheer23]

Bring out Bones.